CNN/Gallup NH tracking poll Kerry 38% Dean 25%

[joefree1]

POLL ANALYSES

January 25, 2004


Kerry Maintains Lead in New Hampshire; Dean Second

Kerry leads Dean by 13 points; Clark slipping


by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry maintains a stable lead in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup New Hampshire tracking poll. In interviews conducted Friday and Saturday, Kerry leads former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 13 points among likely primary voters in that state, 38% to 25%. At least 10 percentage points have separated the two front-running candidates since the Iowa caucuses. In recent days, the bulk of the movement in candidate support has come lower in the pecking order. Just 10% of likely New Hampshire primary voters now say they intend to vote for retired Gen. Wesley Clark, down from 21% in the initial tracking poll on Jan. 17-19. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman has seen a slight increase in support in recent days, and now 12% of likely primary voters say they intend to vote for him. After a small increase in support following a strong showing in Iowa, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 9% in the latest poll.

edit ...

Now it appears as if it is Clark, rather than Dean, who could have the most disappointing finish in New Hampshire. Each day, Clark's support has slipped such that now it is just half of where it was when the tracking poll began. Edwards has also seen his support drop to 9%, just about where it was before the Iowa caucuses. The first few nights of interviewing after the caucuses showed a modest increase in support for Edwards in New Hampshire, but that appears to have subsided.
More ...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040125.asp

Well, this as been a rollercoaster ride. Glad the media hyped scream speech has not taken out Dean.

[Hoppin_Mad]

1. Lieberman has overtaken Clark ? ! Seems like Clark toast ! -nt-

[Doctor_J]

3. Then so are we

We were given a gift, and refused to accept it.

OTOH, I think that PNAC's strategy is fundamentally flawed, and will disintegrate in 20-25 years, so at some point the US will recover. I just wish it could have been in time for me to see it.

[1songbird]

7. Amen brother. People have once again shown that they will let the

media tell them who to vote for.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. He can do poorly in NH

and come rearing back in the south and west. NH was never a must win for clark.

[_Jumper_]

10. Clark is still 2nd in the ARG poll

Although it appears that Edwards will overtake both Clark and Dean for 2nd if that poll is accurate.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. I just posted that too

It shows Dean WAY behind.

Each poll is different, and there's certainly nothing more reliable about Gallup.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. If Kerry Knocks Out Clark And Edwards Which I Think Is Dubious

that clears Kerry's way to the nomination and is bad news for Dean...


Dean needs Clark and Edwards in the race to siphon off votes from Kerry in the south....

[West Coast Democrat]

2. Here's a question for all of you

How accurate was the CNN/Gallup poll for the Iowa results?

[Darth_Ole]

5. Others polls have Dean down by single digits.

Most I've seen are anywhere in the 6% to 9% range. Some tracking polls have him closer I think.

This is NH, folks! It's erratic! In 2000, the polls had Dubya winning, but McCain Bush-whacked him. Big time, too, if I remember right.

[NewJerseyDem]

6. That was a caucus though

I believe that the polls for Iowa were pretty accurate heading into the caucus. The entrance polls seemed pretty similar. However, the polls would obviously get messed up because under the caucus system people can change their mind when they are inside, particularly if their candidate doesn't reach viablility. Then it is what their second choice is that matters and the polls all showed that Kerry and Edwards were many peoples' second choice which explains why they came in 1st and 2nd. The polls were accurate for Iowa.

However, I don't know if they are accurate there. The polls in 2000 showed that polling NH is hard and it is also difficult to know how many independents will come out to vote.

[surfermaw]

8. Take Dan Rathers advice and watch John Edwards

From watching T.V and the town meetings, I can tell you the poll you show here is wrong..Edwards had a town meeting today, one place filled up and he had to go have another meting in another place .Now doesn't that indicate he is going to get more than 89% of the vote, Edwards is going to come in second or a close second.

[surfermaw]

9. Sorry

more than 9 % of the vote

[milkyway]

13. I agree, I can't believe Edwards will only get 9% of the vote. I think it

will be twice that number on Tuesday.

[West Coast Democrat]

11. ARG Tracking Poll has Clark in Second Place

Dean in third and Edwards in 4th.


http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[WI_DEM]

14. very interestiing

but I caution again that polling in NH primaries is a tricky thing due to the high independent vote in the state. Independents can vote in either primary. They are bound to vote more heavily in Dem. primary since no contest to Bush in GOP primary. In 2000, Bush had a lead in most NH polls but McCain won by 18-points becuz of strong Independent support. So anything can still happen.

Still this poll is good news for Kerry who maintains a solid front runner position. Dean has stopped his bleeding and is gaining support. This is the first poll I've seen showing a bounce for Joe Lieberman from the debate on Thursday night. Edwards has momentum and he is bound to do better than 9% imo. The only real bad news for any canidate (except for Kucinich and Sharpton) is Clark losing half of his support and if this poll turns out accurate could actually come in fifth--though I honestly doubt that will be the case.