Salon asks "Is the Senate in play in 2006?"

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

Now don't anybody go hyperventilating on us just yet -- we've been down this road before-- but Democrats looking for some sliver of hope for the future should check out Chuck Todd's latest column in the National Journal.

Todd, who has a helpful if unhealthy obsession with the state of Senate races around the country, says that the Democrats actually have a chance to regain control in 2006. Harry Reid has said that it would take a "miracle" for the Democrats to overcome the Republican's 55-44-1 advantage so soon, but Todd says not to count the Democrats out just yet.

"The ingredients -- violence in Iraq, the uneven economy and partisan tension -- are there for the party to make a comeback after two cycles of GOP dominance," Todd explains, adding that Iraq -- the "number one issue for voters" -- is "devouring the Republican Party." The problem for Republicans, Todd says: Aside from the adoption of a constitution, there aren't a whole lot of big positive developments possible in Iraq between now and next November. "We've caught Saddam Hussein, we've turned over power, we've held elections and the level of violence appears to be the same to the lay voter," he writes. "We've been writing for months that at some point, Iraq was going to hurt the Republicans as much as it helped them in 2002. They lucked out in 2004, but 2006 is a whole new ballgame."

Todd ranks the 2006 Senate races using his analysis of each seat's vulnerability to a party switch. Number one on the vulnerability list right now: Pennsylvania Republican Rick Santorum. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., "may not be tough enough to win," Todd says, "but it's possible that Santorum is just carrying too much baggage" to hold onto a state Kerry won in 2004.

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/index.html



http://nationaljournal.com/todd.htm

ON THE TRAIL: SENATE 2006 RACE RATINGS
Are Democrats Creeping Into Contention?

By Chuck Todd, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, June 22, 2005

With just under 18 months to go until Election Day 2006, things continue to look up for Senate Democrats. The ingredients -- violence in Iraq, the uneven economy and partisan tension -- are there for the party to make a comeback after two cycles of GOP dominance.

Iraq, the number one issue for voters, is devouring the Republican Party. And with no new moment to look for that doesn't have the word "withdrawal" in it, it's hard to see how the situation improves before next November. We've caught Saddam Hussein, we've turned over power, we've held elections and the level of violence appears to be the same to the lay voter. We've been writing for months that at some point, Iraq was going to hurt the Republicans as much as it helped them in 2002. They lucked out in 2004, but 2006 is a whole new ballgame.

With at least six legitimate targets for the Democrats, the Senate is officially in play for the first time this cycle. We're not naïve. Minnesota and Maryland won't be easy for the party to defend. Add North Dakota and Democrats have their work cut out for them. But on the plus side, Republicans haven't found A-list recruits in places like Nebraska, Washington and Florida. While those three seats won't be easy for the Democrats to defend, things could be much worse.

And with that, our latest rankings. Remember, these seats are ranked in order of vulnerability to a party switch, i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat we view as most likely to flip to the other party, while the bottom-ranked race is the seat we see as the least likely:

[tavalon]

1. It would have been in play

if not for Diebold and EE&S. Sucks, don't it?

[SteppingRazor]

2. I don't think so...

My picks are here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1877197&mesg_id=1877197


If it goes the way I think it will, we're looking at a GOP Senate, 52-47-1