Bush's Tuesday Speech will be "substantive"

alcibiades_mystery

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Sun Jun-26-05 11:48 PM
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Bush's Tuesday Speech will be "substantive"

Or at least as substantive as the incompetent GOP wonks get, which is to say, of very little substance. But, that said, it won't be the repetitive drivel that many here are predicting. It also won't be about Iran. Here are my predictions:

The speech will be divided into three parts, the second two of which will include a good deal of specific evidence and specific programs. These two deliberative sections (in the Aristotelian sense of deliberative rhetoric, or arguments about the future) will be preceded by an admission of the problems US forces are encountering, along with blame for the enemy. This will be a classical strategy...begin with what is hardly arguable: the situation is tough and the enemy is malicious and evil (for Americans, it is impossible to claim otherwise).

So, Part 1. The Problem (primarily emotional, will appeal to country and moral values; will set up the dichotomy between enemy and the US, with a closing identification of the US and Iraqi people against the insurgency which, in turn will be identified with al-Qaeda)

We're in a tough fight with a tough and persistent enemy
Our losses have been steep, and may get steeper; they may cause us to waver
Every American mourns for the brave troops who have died; but they died for a noble cause
A litany of outrages perptrated by the insurgents (expect to hear of at least two specific bombings and specific beheadings)
Set up our cause against this litany
Closes with the specific story of an Iraqi who has resisted or fought back against the insurgency, or some other human interest story focused on an "ordinary Iraqi citizen"

Part 2. The Political Solution (Here you will see a substantive program of action related to the formation of government) Expect

A reminder of the election and its place in history
An enumeration of social improvements, borne out with statistics: expect at least 4 cases (number of schools, infant mortality, etc.)
Transition: but there's still more work to do...
Five specific examples of what we're doing to speed the political process
A list of diplomatic initiatives aimed at enlisting the assistance of foreign powers (expect an "I spoke with X when the leaders of such and such met at so and so"); at least four success stories on this front
Timetable for Iraqi Constitution (and construction of this timetable as a new telos for the "things are gonna get easier" mantra we've entertained for two years)

Part 3. The Military Solution - Here it's more difficult to predict what Bush is going to say, since there is no military solution that is new. Expect

An enumeration of Iraqis trained, and a list of their successful operations
At least one human interest story involving an Iraqi unit
A list of recent US "successes," such as the farcical operations on the Syrian border

Conclusion: That said, it's all about the Iraqi people, blah blah blah. Here you'll see the repetive stuff about democracy and freedom, but it will take on the glow of the substantive policy that came before it. The key word is specificity and that will be the mantra of the pundits post-speech. "Bush was more specific than we've heard anyone on this, etc." The problem, as I believe they've analyzed it, is that the public is antsy because of the open-ended nature of the whole business, and that it seems to subsist at a dull drone, never changing, never transforming, just day after day after day of car bombs and troop deaths. It has no specificity to it, and there doesn't seem to be any specific intervention discussed at the policy level. So we'll hear tons of "specifics."

Second prediction: It will all be forgotten within three weeks, since the specifics will fall back into the constant drone of the violence. The speech will be widely praised by the pundits, and largely ineffectual even in the short-term.