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I really think Bush may actually be in trouble in Iraq. And the reason is both complicated, to rational thinking folks, and simple when you understand how he has managed to influence his support. He gets by, so to speak, on "belief". By that I mean he expounds upon what he believes, often couching in terms that suggest it is fact, and supporters accept it with the same trust they would an observed fact. Cutting taxes is good, axis of evil, culture of life, he can make these expression because they don't threaten anything that his supporters really know first person, so they accept his version on trust, kinda like a faith. Folks don't really know, nor understand much beyond their own realm of experience and often depend heavily upon their trust in others to explain it to them.
And this has served him well with his larger agenda. He can call someone a liberal, or himself a compassionate conservative, and they will trust this description with the same "faith" they do what their grandpa tells them about the "good ole days". He can talk about "liberal activist judges" and his description is accepted as fact despite the fact that so many were appoint by him, his father, or Reagan. People don't know much about the courts other than what they see on Judge Judy or Law and Order.
But as the Schiavo thing exposed, and I believe his weakness on Social Security did too, it gets worse when it comes to matters which people know first hand. Yes there will always be the "true believers". But beyond them, too many people have had grand parents who fell into deep incapacitation or dementia for any grand allusion to "a culture of life" to mean much. Too many folks get a SS check, have parents that get an SS check, or are old enough to realize they haven't saved much and their SS check is about all their gonna get. Furthermore, too many lost a bundle in the stock market, or knew someone who had to put off retirement, or a trip, because their personal savings, IRA, 401K or whatever has performed poorly. Too many Eastern Airlines retirees. The reality is that in general they are pretty sure that any investment they'd make would go the wrong way, it always has.
And now, with Iraq, he has a similar problem. Too many people have a first person connection to that battle. Too many people know a soldier, met a soldier, or have read the local descriptions of local guardsmen and their troubles. They haven't always been strict anti-Bush kind of stories. Many have been the "local boys done good" kinda piece in the paper or on the local news channel. But none the less, buried in those stories are mentions of how dangerous it is over there. Maybe there was a local recruit that is now dead. But the stories leave them with anything but the idea that anything is in the "last throes". Their National Guard friends are getting called up a second time. Someone couldn't get out due to stop loss, or someone had to delay a wedding because their rotation was delayed. These kinds of experiences are very real to them and do far more to define their impressions than any words Bush can speak. This only gets more intense when the local recruiter calls the house, visits at school, or the ads show up in the mail box with their own child's name on it. Now it is very personal, very immediate and Bush isn't gonna explain that away.
This is poison to Bush. Bush does not "make a case" he expresses a belief and expects his expression to be accepted on faith, on trust. But the truth is that it was a shallow trust, a trust based upon the lack of any credible opposition. For the conservative movement has made almost any source of information "incredible" by definition. TV, the papers, the magazines, anyone really that does not come with the specific approval of a "conservative" stamp is suspect and their information to be ignored by default. Anyone who counters the official message, the expression of belief is to be ignored and vilified. If it does not match the belief, it is not only wrong, but evil. One does not have to show it is wrong other than to show it does not match the belief, regardless of how credible the information. Information is not judged by its quality, but by its conformity.
But this does not work for first person knowledge. You cannot vilify personal knowledge, you cannot counter the good boys down at the armory. They know how important Granny's SS check is. They know how sad and painful Daddy's dying was with the Alzheimer's and all. And this is why Bush is in trouble, because the stories will keep coming back, first person and very real. And those stories won't match the rosy pictures of a successful mission. No mission accomplished here, just another rotation through a country that doesn't seem to want us, and takes ole Jimmy away for his third rotation. There aren't enough speeches to counter such a thing, and Bush has no ability to make his case any other way.
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