Kerry widens lead in latest Boston Globe Poll

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry increases 3 point on 25th. Dean static.



(Sample size = 400 likely voters, +/-5%)

1/25/2004

Kerry 38
Dean 15
Clark 14
Edwards 12
Lieberman 7
Kucinich <1
Sharpton <1
Undec 14

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/polls/tracking_poll/

[oasis]

1. Make room for the Real Deal.

[Southsideirish]

2. Boston Globe? Ya, sure.

Sorry, but it has no credence with me. It has to be a national scientific poller like Zogby to get my attention.

[sandnsea]

5. Don't prod for more polls

Please, don't encourage anyone!!

(it's a joke Nicholas J)

[Nicholas_J]

9. Good

Because KRC Communication (of Newton Mass, related to Cambridge University), a rather well known scientific polling commpany does the Globes Polls.

Kerry has also increased his lead in the latest Gallop polls:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry maintains a stable lead in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup New Hampshire tracking poll. In interviews conducted Friday and Saturday, Kerry leads former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 13 points among likely primary voters in that state, 38% to 25%. At least 10 percentage points have separated the two front-running candidates since the Iowa caucuses. In recent days, the bulk of the movement in candidate support has come lower in the pecking order. Just 10% of likely New Hampshire primary voters now say they intend to vote for retired Gen. Wesley Clark, down from 21% in the initial tracking poll on Jan. 17-19. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman has seen a slight increase in support in recent days, and now 12% of likely primary voters say they intend to vote for him. After a small increase in support following a strong showing in Iowa, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 9% in the latest poll.

http://gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040125.asp


And in the Latest Suffolk University Polls Kerry moves from 29 to 36 points, Dean remains at 20.

7NEWS and Suffolk University Daily Tracking Poll Results

Kerry Pulling Away in Granite State

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry extended his lead to 16 points over Howard Dean in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll of likely Democratic voters taken January 23 - 24. The two day rolling average of 400 respondents gave Kerry the lead with 36% followed by Dean at 20% and Wesley Clark with 11%. The survey carries an error rate of +/- 4.90%

"The Vietnam Vet is headed for a big 'V' on Tuesday," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Howard Dean remained static while Wesley Clark continued to drop off."

http://www.suffolk.edu/suprc/pres/jan25_04/update.html

[jmaier]

3. A Kerry landslide

and then statistical tie for 2nd, 3rd. I wonder why these Boston Globe & Herald polls are so much more pro-Kerry than ARG and Zogby? What are they doing differently?

[GalleryGod]

7. From your Keyboard to the Election God's Ears!

:grouphug:

[Padraig18]

8. You noticed that too, huh?

They're both totally out of synch with most other polls, which show a race that is rapidly tightening between Dean and Kerry. Draw your own conclusions.

[KC21304]

13. Only one out of synch is Zogby, and I'm sure he will catch up soon.

[Nicholas_J]

14. All of the polls

Except Zogby, and Zogby alone show Kerry with double digit leads over Dean that are not going down at all. Very few show show any imprivement for Dean at all, and the poll in Which Dean has had the largest imprivement WMUR/University of New Hampshire, has Dean still 14 points behind Kerry


Suffolk,Gallop,ARG,KRC Communication(Cambridge University) all the most recent polls have Dean static, and into deep double digits behind Kerry.

In Iowa, Kerry was only a few point ahead of Dean in the Zogby polls, and that translated into a lead over Dean into high double digits.

[Nicholas_J]

15. Only Zogby is way out of synch

Because ARG, Gallop, WMUR/UNH actually give breadowns by Demcrat/Undeclared voters in which undeclared is the term used got independent voters (no declared party affiliation) and these are the polls which give Kerry the highest percentages as well as the largest leads.

Though I like what David Paleologus said about the Vietnam Vet heated to a Big "V" on Tuesday.

When a pollster actually makes a comittment like that, it is a very big deal.

But in Iowa, Kerry had only a few point lead two days before the caucus, and that translated into a very big lead for Kerry in the caucuses.

[isbister]

10. ARG vs Globe

ARG

Results.....22-24

Kerry........38%
Clark........17%
Dean.........16%
Edwards......15%
Lieberman.....5%
Kucinich......1%
Sharpton......0%
Other.........0%
Undecided.....8%

Globe

Kerry 38
Dean 15
Clark 14
Edwards 12
Lieberman 7
Kucinich <1
Sharpton <1
Undec 14

[KC21304]

12. Maybe Zogby hasn't caught up yet. Looks like Gallop and

Suffolk agree with Globe and Herald.

[JohnKleeb]

4. Thanks Nick

I am hopeful yet at the same time nervous.

[Nicholas_J]

17. Don't be nervous

Just think, a few months and this board will become nice and polite again.

[VolcanoJen]

6. Those numbers seem close to the ARG Numbers

First polls I've seen that seem to match up closely:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

ARG Daily New Hampshire Tracking Poll

Jan 22-24

Kerry 38%
Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Edwards 15%

The first ARG samples from South Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona are due within hours!!

[Nicholas_J]

11. Yes...I've been waiting for the latest ARG

Because ARG, Gallop, WMUR/UNH actually give breadowns by Demcrat/Undeclared voters in which undeclared is the term used got independent voters (no declared party affiliation) and these are the polls which give Kerry the highest percentages as well as the largest leads.

Though I like what David Paleologus said about the Vietnam Vet heated to a Big "V" on Tuesday.

When a pollster actually makes a comittment like that, it is a very big deal.

[jmaier]

16. Kerry will win in NH

2nd, 3rd and 4th will be so statistically close that neither Clark nor Edwards will get a bounce or a major setback until Feb 3rd. I see Gov Dean as the only candidate with any great risk at the moment. He has the cash to keep competing strongly but his Feb 3rd outlook appears bleak to me if he doesn't close strongly on Kerry in NH. He has to look to places like MI and WI to stop the loss of momentum positioning him for places like NY, IL and CA.

Sadly, Lieberman will keep tagging along.

[Old and In the Way]

18. Gosh, Karl Rove is a genius!

He's got us deluded into thinking that the best qualified Democratic leader with a progressive/liberal agenda has any chance at all against an incompetant, AWOL, and unelected loser.

:-)