Latest N.H. poll holds hope for Dean

[Democrats unite]

MANCHESTER, N.H. - The Democrats’ fierce battle for New Hampshire entered its final 48 hours Sunday with the latest MSNBC poll showing one-time front-runner Howard Dean making a strong comeback from his stumble in the Iowa caucuses.

Sen. John Kerry still held double-digit leads in most of the polling data released Sunday, and a seven-point advantage in the three-day figures from the MSNBC/Zogby Reuters Poll, which showed him leading Dean 30-23 in Thursday-Saturday totals, down from 31-22 the previous day.

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However, in just the Saturday survey, it was 28 for Kerry to 25 for Dean, a statistical dead heat in the poll’s four-point margin of error. The Friday-only figure was 26-22.

A tracking poll totals three consecutive days of polling, then tosses the first day’s results each time a new day is added. Pollsters say tracking polls show shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4057645/

[quaker bill]

1. Dean will at least be a close second.

He may pull it out yet.

[Frances]

2. I am so glad

not because I have made a final decision about whom to support but because the longer there is a close race, the more free publicity the Democrats get.

The eventual nominee is benefitting from all of the interest the race is generating.

Tonight the channel I was watching showed Guilliani (sp) and Pataki in New Hampshire campaigning for the Republicans. They are worried that the independents there are getting pulled into the Democrats' camp and will vote Democratic in the fall.

That is good for the Dems!

[ozone_man]

3. Also, we haven't really had a good dialog yet.

This debate format is not very good for conducting vigorous debates. I would much prefer getting down to three candidates, when we can really get into the meat.

[HereSince1628]

10. If you think this is bad wait a couple of weeks

Candidates will spend huge time traveling between far flung states so the events will be organized to be "bigger" hence more cost effective and less personal.

Very few folks will see candidates except in commercials and such.

[cavebat2000]

4. Im sorry

But I just cant see how Democrats want Kerry to be the nominee. It's gonna be Dean, Clark, Or Edwards.





--Edited for spelling so i dont look like an idiot--

[pansypoo53219]

5. stumble?

if anything, it was the MWs who TOTALLY blew the 'scream' out of proportion.
why do the people who are supposed to EDUCATE the masses have NO PERSPECTIVE???
althhough n The Media it was funny they equated dean with that infamous sound track.

[jpgray]

6. A close race is better for all concerned--they're my two faves!

I'm really excited to see who "has it" in NH. It could be another shocker.

[ACPS65]

7. Best to regurgitate this through Tuesday.

Carry on.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. ARG

3-Day Results 16-18  	17-19	18-20  19-21  20-22   21-23  22-24
Clark 	        20% 	19% 	18% 	19% 	20% 	19% 	17%
Dean 	        28% 	28% 	26% 	22% 	18% 	15% 	16%
Edwards 	8% 	8% 	9% 	9% 	11% 	13% 	15%
Kerry 	        19% 	20% 	24% 	27% 	31% 	34% 	38%
Kucinich 	1% 	2% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Lieberman 	6% 	7% 	7% 	7% 	7% 	6% 	5%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	        0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	15% 	13% 	13% 	14% 	12% 	12% 	8%
	  						
Sample size 	617 	617 	718 	811 	806 	712 	620
	  						
Democrats 	432 	436 	511 	573 	558 	484 	415
Undeclared 	185 	181 	207 	238 	248 	228 	205
Undeclared (%) 	30% 	29% 	29% 	29% 	31% 	32% 	33%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. Suffolk U. poll: Kerry Pulling Away in Granite State

7NEWS and Suffolk University Daily Tracking Poll Results
Kerry Pulling Away in Granite State

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry extended his lead to 16 points over Howard Dean in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll of likely Democratic voters taken January 23 - 24. The two day rolling average of 400 respondents gave Kerry the lead with 36% followed by Dean at 20% and Wesley Clark with 11%. The survey carries an error rate of +/- 4.90%

"The Vietnam Vet is headed for a big 'V' on Tuesday," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. Howard Dean remained static while Wesley Clark continued to drop off."

<snip>

Wesley suffered his second consecutive three-point drop to 11% effectively eliminating him from the main event with just three days to go. Clark's best demographic category was households with veterans where he trailed Kerry by just 15%.

<snip>

The following is the top down percentage results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Friday, January 23rd and Saturday, January 24th):

* John Kerry 36%
* Howard Dean 20%
* Wesley Clark 11%
* John Edwards 8%
* Joe Lieberman 6%
* Dennis Kucinich 1%
* Al Sharpton 1%
* Undecided/REF 17%
http://www.suffolk.edu/suprc/pres/jan25_04/update.html

for perspective.

[feckerman]

11. The real question is independents and women.

Women make their mind up late - and Joe Trippi CLEARLY knows that as Deans campaign manager, and is targeting their "comeback" efforts towards Women voters.

Additionally, the number of independents polled makes a big difference. And after all, 48 hours is a light year in NH, no?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. In Iowa

Iowa results:
Among women, Kerry received 33% of the vote, Dean received 21% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'Independents', Kerry received 34% of the vote, Dean received 21% of the vote.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/IA/index.html

These are two demographics that went solidly for Kerry.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. More demographic breakdowns, these from the LA Times NH poll

As in surveys of Iowa caucusgoers, Kerry demonstrated an extraordinary reach across the party in The Times Poll. Kerry led among men and women; Democrats and independents (who are allowed to vote in the primary); voters who earn less than $40,000 a year and those who earn more; liberals and moderates (he was tied with Edwards among the small share who considered themselves conservatives) and voters who lived in cities, suburbs and small towns.

Kerry dominated the field among voters without a college education — he was backed by 39% of them, compared with 16% for Clark and 13% for Dean. Kerry ran almost evenly with Dean among the college-educated voters, who have been the core of the former governor's constituency. Kerry was backed by 27% of college-educated poll respondents, compared with 25% for Dean and 19% for Clark.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll24jan24,1,7862059.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[janx]

12. He's coming back!

!

[cthrumatrix]

14. I hope he can...he has a great message.....

[mikehiggins]

16. Lets hope he has enough time.

It may sound cynical but if Kerry snatches defeat out of the jaws of victory it may finish him on the spot and give us the opponent we thought we'd be facing all along.

Oh, the dangers of inevitability.

[janx]

17. I take comfort in the fact that these three-day tracking polls

present a very gradual picture. We'll see what they look like tomorrow.