Are the primaries in the 7 states next week more important than Iowa & NH?

[kentuck]

As an indicator of who the people really favor as their nominee. The primaries are in various states, ND, MO, NM, AZ, SC, OK and another state that escapes me at the moment?? Is it WA? :) But wouldn't these states be a better overall sampling than the NH primary or the Iowa caucus? The best thing about NH and Iowa is that they may permit one or two candidates to gain momentum and name recognition before going to these other states.

And they are not all southern states. So it appears the race is only starting. I could see a couple of new faces coming out of these states to compete with Kerry and Dean..perhaps Edwards and Clark? Then it would have to go to another round to see if there is going to be a prohibitive favorite. The Party would like to get a nominee before Super Tuesday but will that be possible?

[Democrats unite]

1. yes.

eom

[Renew Deal]

2. Yes, expect major drop outs after that.

Anyone who hasen't won a state and/or delegates probably will and should drop out. That will probably be Sharpton, Lieberman, Kucinich, Edwards or Clark and possibly Dean.

[The Sushi Bandit]

11. Dannis is going al the way to the party convention

no mater how may votes he gets

[krkaufman]

16. Not winner-take-all

The primaries/caucuses aren't winner-take-all.** A candidate doesn't need to win a state to gain delegates. Edwards could not win a single state, get second in every state, with Clark, Kerry & Dean each winning some percentage, yet Edwards might end up with the most total delegates.

Here's the Iowa count:
Kerry (19)
Edwards (18)
Dean (8)


** Not sure if that's true across the board.

[SteveG]

3. Delaware is the one you missed

Delaware is on Feb. 3 as well. I suspect that NH is going to give mixed messages. Kerry wins, but Clark or Edwards could overtake Dean.

Here in Southern and Central DE we see a lot of Clark signs and bumper stickers. He has appeal (and I will be voting for him)

[kentuck]

6. Thanks SteveG !

How could we forget Delaware? :)

[dolstein]

4. They ought to be

However, I think it's safe to say that these states will not receive seven times as much coverage as either New Hampshire or Iowa got.

[krkaufman]

17. 1/7th or less -- except for South Carolina

However, I think it's safe to say that these states will not receive seven times as much coverage as either New Hampshire or Iowa got.

Most of them will get less than 1/7th the coverage of IA & NH; except for South Carolina.

All we're hearing about is who needs to do what in South Carolina on Feb 3rd, as though nothing's happening in the 6 other states. (Grrrr...)

[mmonk]

5. Yes

by number

[kitkatrose]

7. Could someone tell me why Iowa and New Hampshire

are the important primaries? I'm not really sure; is it because they come early in the year? Why not focus on some of the other states, I mean, they exist too. :shrug:

[arewethereyet]

8. they are the first, they are not jumbled

and they show the results of the candidates' most serious campaigning. That is to say. they demonstrate political ability and viability in a controlled setting as opposed to the mish-mash of Super Tuesday's I and II.

[dae]

9. Just because they're first and it gives a few a chance to break away.

[woofless]

10. FYI, WA Dem caucus is Feb. 7 n/t

[adamrsilva]

12. Could be

because Clark, Edwards, or Dean could lose to Kerry in NH, but sweep those states.

[SheilaT]

13. Absolutely.

Lieberman, Kucinich, and Sharpton will probably all stay in until the convention, even though none of them have any realistic chance of getting nominated. Because of that they're not as bounded by the need to win.

Depending on how the voting goes on Tuesday, maybe one or two will drop, but I doubt it. Clark and Edwards can do very poorly and still justify staying in on the belief that their real strength is in the south anyway. Dean and Kerry both have enough momentum, and Dean has enough money, that they're going on for much longer. Probably until one man actually has the delegates to get the nomination.

As a Dean supporter it's obvious who I think that will be.

[krkaufman]

14. Yes

IA & NH = 1.5% of delegates
Feb 3-8 = 11% of delegates

It's silly that so much do-or-die hype is spewed about IA & NH.

[NNN0LHI]

15. Yes. I think that is why they call it Super Tuesday? n/t

[drfemoe]

18. "Super" Tuesday isn't until March 2

It's all about "perception" I guess.