New Gallup/USA Today Tracking poll Kerry 36%, Dean 25%

[WI_DEM]

Here are the latest from Gallup in NH:
Kerry: 36%
Dean: 25%
Clark 13%
Edwards 10%
Lieberman 10%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%
Undecided 4%

"With more than a day remaining between the end of interviewing and the actual vote, campaign efforts could cause these numbers to change. But barring a major revelation or event affecting perceptions of the candidates, the final vote is likely to be close to the percentages reported here." (hmm, I love the way they are so sure of themselves).

The speech according to Gallup did hurt Dean. But 69% say it had no effect--of that 69% the vote is very close 33% for Kerry and 32% for Dean. But of the 31% who say the speech did raise serious doubts Kerry leads Dean 44-9.

Kerry leads with Dems 44-30 over Dean. Kerry leads Dean 31-20 among Independents.

Watch the Independent vote tomorrow night if it is heavy it could affect the results in several ways.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040126.asp

[Democrats unite]

1. Here is a interesting article to follow up on these numbers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/26/politics/campaign/26POLL.html

[WI_DEM]

3. good article

pinpoints why these polls are so unpredictable.

[eyesroll]

2. I wonder how many of that 31% who expressed doubts

were Kerry supporters (or leaners) to begin with. Without context, that's a pretty useless statement.

For instance, if a pollster calls me and asks if W's SOTU made me have serious doubts about him, it would be YES. But I was never in his camp to begin with. The SOTU in no way made me switch my vote.

[ALago1]

4. I just hope JoJo doesn't pass Edwards

n/t