Momentum May Be Key in Missouri

[WilliamPitt]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/26/momentum_may_be_key_in_missouri/

Momentum may be key in Missouri
By Yvonne Abraham, Globe Staff, 1/26/2004

WEBSTER GROVES, Mo. -- This is everything Lee Keefer knows about Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry: The Massachusetts senator won the Iowa caucuses. And, "he's very distinguished-looking." Also, "he was divorced, and married this Heinz lady."

This is the other thing the 71-year-old retiree and Republican knows about Kerry: He could vote for him.

Behold, the bounce.

Iowa's Jan. 19 caucuses blew open the Feb. 3 presidential primary in Missouri. Iowa prompted the departure of Missouri's favorite son, Representative Richard A. Gephardt, who had been set for certain victory here, leaving up for grabs the state's 74 delegates. It set other campaigns scrambling for local political operatives and endorsements, and for ways to reach voters who did not think they had decisions to make in this race until six days ago. And it gave Kerry serious momentum, which, in the absence of other election results and without benefit of a local campaign, has made him the candidate of choice for many voters in this middle-class suburb 15 miles southwest of St. Louis.

It is not just Webster Groves that is warming to Kerry. A national Newsweek poll of 1,006 voters released yesterday indicated Kerry leading the field across the country, and in a statistical dead heat with President Bush in a head-to-head race. As the candidates move into the Feb. 3 contests, which include South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and Delaware in addition to Missouri, the contenders will have neither the money to launch full-scale campaigns in all seven states nor the time to win over voters personally as they have until now. Momentum will be vital.

Webster Groves is just the kind of place where a presidential candidate needs to do well to win in November. It is a bellwether community in a bellwether state: Missouri has favored the victor in almost every national election in the last century. Geographically and ideologically, the state is set firmly in the country's middle.

...more...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Best thing now would be a NH blow out for Kerry

snow and other factors may keep that from happening.
In any event I see Gephardt support largely transferring to Kerry.

[isbister]

2. I don't think snow's going to be too much

of a factor. New England Cable News was saying it wouldn't be getting to NH until much later in the day.

And what's the word about Gephardt throwing his weight behind Kerry... that the rumor isn't it? That would be nice.

[sistersofmercy]

3. My neck of the woods, I live close to Webster, its a quaint

tight knit community and I'd say Kerry will do very well there and in St Louis in general. Honestly, I have refrained from doing any campaigning for Kerry here in St Louis out of respect for Geppy but now I'm ready. Although, I have been talking Kerry up to all my friends, Democrats and Republicans. It's pretty funny to me that virtually all the Repulicans I know, don't care much for bush* , his fiscal irresponsibility and agree he isn't all that bright.

[adadem]

5. Webster Groves must be

similar to the constituency where I am. Very strong Kerry support here even with Republicans who are sick of shrubby.

[sistersofmercy]

7. Yes and many other small towns and cities surrounding St Louis

There is a Republican named Ashby who is seeking a run against bush* from University City, another St Louis County city. I'm not sure what kind of support, if any, Ashby has but he was making waves.

[janx]

9. Sisters, I grew up in Kirkwood, and the thought of an old

Webster Republican voting for Kerry is a *little* over the top...

[sistersofmercy]

10. No it's not. Have you been talking to people in the area? I have

Many are completely disenchanted with bush*. I know lifelong Republicans watching and paying very close attention to Kerry, considering offering their support. Now if the article were quoting about someone from Ladue or Clayton, I'd be very suspicious. Jeez, I know Republicans who would be considered down right liberal on issues such as the environment or abortion, as well as, other issues.

[janx]

12. I'm well aware of that. My mother, who died recently, was that

way, though she wasn't registered with any party officially. There's no way she'd have voted for Kerry though.

Just because the old repubs aren't like the new ones, it does not necessarily follow that they would vote for John Kerry. He's too entrenched, for one thing; for another, he gave the OK for IWR, which would remind these people of LBJ and Vietnam.

They'd be far more likely to vote for Wes Clark or Howard Dean--especially Dean due to his fiscal conservatism and social "liberalism." Dean himself comes from a family much like those old Repubs you describe.

Nope...sorry...I'm still laughing here...

Edit: I might add that my mother voted for Reagan exactly once--and then became to disgusted at what the Republican party had become that she never voted Repub again.

[sistersofmercy]

14. Laugh all you want but my prediction for MO primary is Kerry, Clark

then maybe Dean. It's polite politics , my friend and MO will be just as turned of by the in-your-face stuff as IA was. Geppy supporters will go to Kerry.

[janx]

15. I have no doubt that Kerry will get some support from MO

Democrats.

[sistersofmercy]

16. My other prediction, MO will go Dem in Nov.

Which means there will be Repubs voting Dem.

[GumboYaYa]

4. I spent yesterday calling Dem voters

in St. Louis. There is definitely a trend of support for Kerry that I have not seen before. There were more Kerry supporters yesterday than I encountered the whole four months prior all together.

I am also seeing a massive number of undecideds here. There is no doubt that Missouri is a wide-open race.

[sistersofmercy]

8. Are you in St Louis?

I can give you some tips about the area if you like. I know the demographics fairly well and can tell you for certain which townships to not bother calling because they are staunch Republicans but you may already know.

[GumboYaYa]

18. I am in St. Louis

and I have been canvassing voters every weekend since August.

Two weeks ago, I could have predicted the primary within a few points for every candidate (at least the results in St. Louis). Now, the race is completely out of control. I know where Dean's original base is located, but the rest of the field is in complete flux. From what I have seen since Iowa, Kerry and Edwards are picking up support fast here.

[zulchzulu]

6. A lifelong GOP aunt of mine if voting for Kerry

She has been a Republican since Eisenhower and is voting for anyone but Bush, but is very impressed with Kerry.

She says he's distinguished looking and has a nice manner.

[blm]

11. Yes...I think some old guard Republicans don't care much

for the "End times Republicans" of today.

[Dark Star]

13. Of course, Gephardt is

naturally thought of highly in Missouri (and by me as well).

I saw an excellent interview with a higher-up in the Gephardt campaign explain this morning why he is pushing Edwards.

[DjTj]

17. Gephardt said he wouldn't endorse before MO...

...but I guess we'll have to see after NH.

Welcome to DU, Dark Star! :hi:

[oasis]

19. bounce

:kick: