Why are Zogby's NH results so different from all the other polls?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Clark 15
Dean 20
Edwards 16
Kerry 38
Lieberman 5
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/


Clark 11
Dean 17
Edwards 12
Kerry 37
Lieberman 7
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/polls/tracking_poll/

Clark 10
Dean 17
Edwards 9
Kerry 38
Lieberman 5
http://www.suffolk.edu/suprc/pres/jan26_04/update.html



Clark 13
Dean 25
Edwards 10
Kerry 36
Lieberman 10
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040126.asp


Clark 13
Dean 28
Edwards 12
Kerry 31
Lieberman 9
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=793



They all seem pretty similar till we get to Zogby. Why are his results so much different from every other pollster?

[jenk]

1. Zogby is cosy with Hannity, they want to prop up Dean

[robsul82]

6. C'mon, jenk, you're better than that crap.

Chill.

Later.

RJS

[R3dD0g]

8. I don't know whether Zogby is cozy with Hannity

or not. I know that the times I've seen him on call in shows he professes to be a Democrat.

His numbers are so different because he takes special pains to predict whether the person is going to actually show up at the polls. Most other polls just try to get a will you vote? mix with the correct demographics.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Zogby does a lot sifting through demographics

to arrive at most likely support on election day.
He really is far off the other ones so I have to assume he's at the upper ends of MOE's biased toward Dean favorables for some reason here.
I suspect Kerry will be a couple points above 30 and Dean a couple below. I don't see a Kerry blow out.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. The Gallup Poll you list is outdated; Are the others old as well?

The latest is here:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040126.asp


POLL ANALYSES
January 26, 2004


Seen as Best Candidate to Beat Bush, Kerry Poised for N.H. Victory
Dean a clear second; close race for third among Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman


by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is poised to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary this Tuesday, according to the final 2004 CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll of likely voters. Widely perceived by voters as the most likely candidate to beat President George W. Bush in the November general election, Kerry leads former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 36% to 25%.

In a virtual tie for third place, well behind Dean, are retired Gen. Wesley Clark with 13% of the vote, and Sens. John Edwards (North Carolina) and Joe Lieberman (Connecticut), each with 10% support. Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich and civil rights activist Al Sharpton each garner 1% of the vote, with another 4% still undecided.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. I put the new one in the original post; it doesn't change anything.

[lancdem]

17. The one you cite is the one the poster has

Kerry 36, Dean 25.

[West Coast Democrat]

22. He fixed it; He had an old one earlier

[JI7]

4. he adjusts numbers to take into account other factors

and his numbers do turn out to be more accurate than others at times.

[Poseidon]

5. Zogby sauces his polls

That's what I think.

[La_Serpiente]

7. I've noticed

that Zogby tends to look at momentum as oppose to who is in the lead.

That is my honest opinion. Anybody else share this sentiment?

[R3dD0g]

10. Flush Slimeball said Zogby was

'saucing the polls' in 96. In 2000 Flush said Zogby was right on.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. Zogby predicted Hillary would lose in 2000

but he picked the President correctly.

[lancdem]

21. He was working for the N.Y. Post when he did those Hillary-Lazio

polls, so I wouldn't be surprised if they told him to oversample Repukes.

[jenk]

9. I'd like to see what the local newspapers are polling

they're the one's I trust

[JI7]

13. who is that guy with john and elizabeth edwards ?

who is that guy in the pic with john and elizabeth edwards ? and it's a nice pic.

[jenk]

30. John's brother in law, Jim

[WilliamPitt]

11. On the eve of the 2000 election

Zogby had Gore and Bush tied in California.

The next day, Gore won california by 1.5 million votes.

Zogby is great on national polls, but shaky on state polls. I have a better opinion these days of polls taken by institutions close to the state action. The Des Moines Register absolutely nailed the Iowa outcome the day before the vote. Way closer than the others. Just my humble O.

[West Coast Democrat]

14. Yes, that's another example

Zogby is not great with state polls; and Primaries are even trickier than normal elections to call.

[w4rma]

19. He had Gore ahead of Bush in Florida though. (n/t)

[WilliamPitt]

20. Gore was ahead of Bush in Florida

so chalk one up for Zogby.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. "Slight weights were added"

"Slight weights were added to party, age, education, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population."
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=793

Is this like when you buy a pound of fish, and the grocer puts his finger on the scale "to more accurately reflect the fish"?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. CNN/USAT/Gallup had it at 30-25 a couple of days ago.

http://us.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/22/elec04.prez.main/

[sandnsea]

23. 38-25 today

Let's go with that one.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/25/elec04.prez.main/index.html

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Go with it.

:shrug:



I'll go with tomorrow's.

[tryanhas]

25. Polls don't mean a thing

AT ALL

About 25 to 30% of the people who are going to vote on tomorrow are INDEPENDENTS.

They are underpolled, but they are a huge voting bloc.

They are going to make the difference tomorrow, and that's why Edwards is going to finish in second. Those McCain Independents/Republicans (same day registers) love John Edwards.

[TLM]

26. Read what Zogby says right under the poll... undecideds factored in.

In today's release, Leaners among the Undecideds have been factored in. Without Leaners, the percentage of Undecideds is 13%.

[TomNickell]

31. Sounds like Xogby changed the measurement in the middle.

Gives a false sense of movement.

[mzmolly]

27. Interesting graphic on the Gallup poll...

I don't trust polls. This is all about expectations and if they prop Dean up and he doesn't do as well, he's seen as a failure. I think Zogby was full of shit in Iowa, and I honestly don't trust him now. 40% of Iowa voters went with their second choice - they bought the media bull shit that Dean is unelectable. Lucky for John Kerry.

I'll be happy with a second place finish, I don't care about the margin.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

28. Considering we've been hearing for months

that the biggest issue for voters in NH is the ability to beat Bush, that sure looks like good news for Kerry.

[TopesJunkie]

29. Zogby wants to scare Kerry supporters --

What a guy.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

32. A GOTV effort for Kerry?

Nothing could be more effective than Zogby's poll.

Your supporters becoming complacent is one of the big dangers as a frontrunner.

Thank you Zogby.

[TopesJunkie]

33. Dream a little dream --