SUSA Poll Matches Zogby Poll----Dean Closing In On Kerry Fast....

[slinkerwink]

SUSA blew the Iowa results, so their track record this cycle is so far 0-1. But for what it's worth, here are their last set of New Hampshire numbers (PDF).
1/25 1/24 1/23

Kerry 33 28 30
Dean 28 24 25
Edwards 14 13 13
Clark 13 16 12
Lieberman 11 12 7

Note, this isn't a tracking poll. Each one of those days is a full-fledged poll, with a MoE of 4.6%.

Amongst "certain voters", Kerry leads 33-28. Amongst "probable" votes, Kerry leads 27-15. Amongst male voters, Kerry leads 35-24. Amongst females, Kerry's lead is 30-28. Amongst "conservative" voters, Kerry leads 31-11, while "liberal voters" go to Dean 41-27. Independents break 28-22 in favor of Kerry.

Dean needed the Zogby and this SUSA poll to fuel the media "Dean is closing in fast" theme. Drudge has it splashed all over his homepage. AP and Reuters both have big headline stories with the Zogby poll.

And whether it's based on reality or not is beside the point. Most polls show Kerry comfortably ahead. Zogby and SUSA -- two of the least respected polls in polling circles (unfairly so, imho) -- may very well be outliers. But given the media need for ratings, creating an exciting NH photo finish is imperative. And it may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Demoralized Dean supporters are newly energized. Voters who tuned out Dean after the Rebel Yell may now be willing to give him another look.

Lost in the shuffle is Clark, who is suddenly NH's forgotten man (despite the crowds he is still attacting). Edwards, by all measures, is drawing a great deal of new attention. His "two Americas" is resonating something fierce. Lieberman is gasping for survival -- always a compelling media line. (Kind of like slowing down to gawk at a roadside accident.) Kerry is the front-runner. So where does that leave Clark?

http://www.dailykos.com

[deminflorida]

1. It will leave him on the way to South Carolina....

Along with Edwards....

Kerry and Dean are yesterday's news after N.H.

Dean may very well be yesterdays news after tomorrow.

[LBJBestEver]

6. nope <nm>

[Snivi Yllom]

12. the big story in NH wont be dean close with Kerry

It will be Clark fading out...no delegates, edwards cleaning up the leftovers.

[jenk]

2. 2 days ago, I don't think dean was that close

and this shows Kerry actually expanding his lead a little, but dean within striking distance of course

I also seriously doubt Lieberman is at 11%

11%!??!?!!?

that sticks out like a sore thumb.

I can believe Dean is comfortably in 2nd, but I'm encouraged by other polls that show edwards on his heels. But I don't think a 2nd place finish for dean will give him any momentum.

[robsul82]

3. I don't see how anyone...

...who watched the FNC debate a couple days ago and saw the reaction to Joe doubts that Liebermania could well be running wild over the state of New Hampshire.

Later.

RJS

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Too bad all the polls don't say this so Kerry could claim another comeback

[sandnsea]

5. It's still 5 pts.

So I don't see how it's closing fast. It's probably good that there are a few polls like this, polls really shouldn't choose a candidate.

[robsul82]

7. If these polls are right...

Then Dean's come back from 18 or so to 3-5 points. I think that's "closing fast" by my definition.

Later.

RJS

[slinkerwink]

8. lol!

:lol:

[jpgray]

9. It's going to be close

This is so great. :D

[cthrumatrix]

10. it is really nice to see his comeback .... and I think an important

thing to remember about the GE...can they take the heat?

[cspiguy]

13. Can you imagine the exitement if Clark throws his support to Dean

after NH?

[tridim]

11. I love a close game

and it appears this is exactly what we have! :D

[robsul82]

14. Hey...

I'd much rather watch the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl than last year's.

Later.

RJS

[boxster]

15. How is Kerry's lead going from 4 points to 5 points indicative of Dean

closing in? The 3-day trend is 5-4-5, so he's certainly not "closing fast".

This is a huge factor: 'Amongst "probable" votes, Kerry leads 27-15.'

The undecides are likely going to vote heavily for Kerry, similar to Iowa.

[cally]

27. Umm, MOE of 4.6 %

I think Dean is coming back and will do fairly well in NH. I think Kerry may win but I think the numbers are too volatile to predict with certainty.

Congrats, Dean supporters! :grouphug:

[isbister]

16. while "liberal voters" go to Dean 41-27

That is astounding (to me)

[boxster]

17. People were fed the false belief that he's a liberal.

Some of it by the media, some of it by some of his supporters.

The fact that he's a fiscal conservative hasn't gotten the kind of press that his signing of the civil unions law. To conseratives, that single event makes him a liberal.

[incapsulated]

18. There is also a snowstorm coming tommorow, help's Dean

If it hits early enough to effect the evening voters, it will help Dean because his people are the most hardcore and will vote no matter what.

I really wouldn't be surprised if he made a total comeback and took this from Kerry, but don't hold me to it. ;)

[edzontar]

19. We should all pray that Kerry does NOT come in first

He wil lead our party to crushing defeat, i fear, with his waffling and boring campaign.

[slinkerwink]

21. same here too

[Cheswick2.0]

22. The Kerry campaign if he is the nominee

"When the gates of hell are opened, the bored will walk the face of the earth."

[bicentennial_baby]

26. Oh snap!

You owe me a keyboard!! :P

[killbotfactory]

23. I agree

I thought so early last year, and he's since done nothing to convince me otherwise.

[Althion]

20. I'm beginning to wonder if the polls aren't as confused as I am

about who's going to win.

A.

[Auntie Bush]

24. "So where does that leave Clark?"

Maybe that is good for now...out of the media spotlight.

[Hoppin_Mad]

25. Maybe they got all our letters ! :-) -nt-