Is there any chance we could be looking at a brokered convention?

[Beaker]

I haven't seen any recent numbers or projections as to when the nominee will be decided by, and who it will be, since before Iowa- when it was mostly wondering about when Dean would have it wrapped up by.
BTW- what are Dean's numbers looking like for the 7(?) states voting next Tuesday...? or anyone else's for that matter- I know that Edwards and Clark are expected to do well.

It seems obvious that it will be one of the current top 4 candidates, Kerry, Dean, Edwards or Clark- but is it a foregone conclusion that a candidate will be chosen by the end of the primaries?

[David Zephyr]

1. More Than Ever Before, Beaker.

Yes.

[kstewart33]

2. I hope not!

Whoever is the nominee, he should be determined well before the convention which should be an event of unity and celebration, not contention and nasty politicking.

[Frodo]

3. It could be the "nightmare scenario", but YES, it could happen.

And the closer we get to it, the less likely 2nd tier candidates will get out early. If they can pick up a few delegates, they can hold on to them to broker a deal at the convention... maybe a VP slot?

How could it happen? Pretty simple. The combination of awarding delegates proportionately and Dean's early lock-up of a bunch of super delegates means that it will be tough for anyone to get a majority - unless Dean comes back hard over the next couple weeks.

NH hardly ever picks the same candidate as Iowa, so HE jumps out as this week's "frontrunner"... then Edwards could certainly win SC.

[flaminbats]

4. not unless you need 2/3s of the delegates to win....

Last I heard, only a majority was necessary to be nominated.

[BootinUp]

6. Keep in mind

That superdelegates can decide to support another candidate at any time leading up to the convention.

[shivaji]

5. bet your bippie

[GalleryGod]

7. Nice Antiquated Term. Sorry-not since 1952. And that was the VP race..

Heard it whispered fervently in 1976.

Bosses prayed for it in 1972.

Insurgents would've settled for it in 1968.

Nah..not a chance.

G.G.:smoke:

[Toucano]

8. I think we'll be counting delegates

at least through February possibly until March 02.

[mikehiggins]

9. Absolutely. As a matter of fact its the most likely endgame

Unless Dean wins tomorrow night. If he does win I don't see how anyone can beat him. Even the press will have to concede he is the real "real deal".

On the other hand, I doubt that'll happen. If it doesn't, well we're off to Boston. Why?

Dean has millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of campaign volunteers.

Clark just raised two million dollars in a week, and also has hard working supporters working in every state in the union.

Edwards and Kerry have more limited resources but tremendous "buzz" in the media.

Of the four candidates I think Edwards is the weakest financially (Kerry can always mortgage another mansion) and the thinnest organization. Kerry has the likely support of the Democratic establishment who will be overjoyed that Dean has been slowed, if not stopped.

Kuchinich will soldier on but Lieberman and Sharpton will be more noticeable by their absence from here on out. Assuming of course that the millenium doesn't arrive tonight and only Lieberman voters are left in NH after the Rapture.

Each candidate picks up some delegates in some states and nobody has a clear majority when the convention opens--you can't claim a victory depending on superdelegates until they vote--at which point the fun really begins. After the first ballot, all delegates are free to go wherever they choose and the race is on. CSpan's coverage of the caucus only gives a hint to what will take place.

Keep in mind the big city organizations like Tammany Hall and Chicago's Daley machine no longer have the control over the delegates as they once had. The candidates can go directly to the delegates and they will prove just as loyal to their primary winners as any professional politician does. Ahem.

So who will win when the dust settles?

I think Clark will be the acceptable compromise between Kerry and Dean, or possibly Edwards, and some famous Northern politician will be picked as VP (haven't a clue but if Edwards is the candidate I really think Elliot Spitzer from NY would be a good match.)

If Clark is the nominee I'd suggest someone from California or the Northwest.

Either way, if it goes to a convention, I don't think Dean or Kerry will end up the nominee. We'll see.

Hey, even if I'm totally wrong I'm probably closer to correct than the polls, pundits and pollsters in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Frodo]

11. Looks about right. One disagreement at the end though...

Clark is NOT an "acceptable compromise" between Kerry and Dean. Neither is Edwards.

You would have to be somewhere in between them (politically) to be a compromise. Both are to the right of Kerry AND Dean.

[On the Road]

10. The Longer It's a Four-Way Race

the more difficult it will be for any candidate to get 50% of the delegates.

Especially if each candidate can win and get the delegates in his backyard. Edwards in SC, Clark in OK, and so forth.

The only chance for a quick race is a surprise Dean win in NH. Otherwise, it's off to the races. Kerry will win one or more states on Feb 3, but because the list is weighted toward red states, he is unlikely to score a knockout. Clark and Edward will gain some stature by winning at least one state each. Dean will soldier on even if the results are disappointing.

All those voters in NY and CA complaing that their primaries never count -- they may end up selecting the next president.