Please educate me- what would really happen if the US

[babylonsister]

troops pulled out of Iraq, other than dancing in the streets by some? I think we might have created a civil war, but is there any hope for Iraqis one way or the other?

[achtung_circus]

1. Whatever hope there is for Iraq

has to flow from Iraqis. The sooner the US gets out the easier it will be for them to sort out their own country.

Check this out: <http://www.gwynnedyer.net/articles/Gwynne%20Dyer%20article_%20%20Light%20at%20the%20End%20of%20the%20Tunnel.txt>

[Maple]

2. Vietnam

is doing fine, so would Iraq.

[lvx35]

3. Shi'ites would be large and in charge...My guess.

I think the Shia majority would still hold the power. Its hard to say how much longer the fighting would continue. To be frank I can't see Queda fighting against the Shi'ites, supposing they really are the ones "behind" the insurgency in Iraq. I do think it would likely split into to countries, on Sunni and one Shi'ite.

[Gronk Groks]

4. There would be a major bloodletting...

...and it would sort itself out. I doubt we would like the results but since we broke it, we have to pay for it one way or another.

[ProudDad]

15. I doubt there will be any more blood letting than

he U.S. is perpetrating right now!

I think they'd be smart enough to stop before 100,000 of their own (mostly innocent) citizens are blown away in the brief civil war that would occur.

[Ready4Change]

5. An islamic religious government would establish itself.

Most likely a dictatorship headed by which ever warlord outmanuevers the others. The Bush administration will have created the very thing they lied and said existed in the first place.

[sandnsea]

6. Aghanistan 1992

That worked out well.

[CrackpotAmerica]

7. Well. . .

Iraq is a country that was created by some anglo-saxon drawing an arbitrary line on a map. Just as in the Balkans, the minoritys became either surrounded or forced to comply with the "sovereignty" of the greater geographic country. This method, which obviously has never been abandoned for its sheer idiocy, creates fertile ground for both ethnic cleansing and civil war.

In my belief, the fact is that we are trapped in this war as this administration was the active aggressor. The only way we can leave without causing a civil war in our absence is if we as Americans demand criminal investigation into this administration and, upon their removal, elect or appoint interim leaders who are true statesmen (or women) to restore a dignified process of assisting Iraq.

There is a great book you should read. The link for it is here:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0205280633/libertyhaven/103-9652398-6433454

[Is It Fascism Yet]

8. nothing would happen except that Shrub would have to admit defeat. n/t

[Gronk Groks]

17. Shrub will never admit defeat...

...he will bleed this country dry before he admits he made a mistake, much less a defeat.
Watch out folks, it's bankruptcy or the Draft before Defeat

[mikehiggins]

9. Nobody gives a crap about Iraq, really. The neocons just

don't want to let go of their fantasies, and the GOPukes just don't want to lose control of the Congress and their pipeline into the tax payer's pockets.

If they could figure out a way of getting out without looking like we lost they'd be gone already. Instead, they (we) are stuck in their mess and the death toll on both sides just keeps going up and up and up.

Have a nice day.

[napi21]

10. I suspect Iraq would become 3 different countries.

Split between Shia, Suni and Curds.

I'm not good with history or geography, so I don't really see a problem with that, but apparently someone else thought they had a better idea, many years ago, when they forced these three groups together in the first place!

[Lecky]

11. We may not get any oil /gasp

(That's all BushCo cares about really)

Oh and we'd lose some bases which we will need when we "free" Iran.

[rwheeler31]

12. Thinking like a creative american

we can work it out.

[wli]

13. it would probably split into 3 countries, and foment territorial wars

[ProudDad]

14. They would take care of their own country

the same way the Vietnamese, Lebanese, El Salvadorans, Nicaraguans, Guatemalans, Filipinos, Italians, Germans, Japanese and dozens of other peoples did when the U.S. left them the fuck alone.

There will probably be three countries where the fiction named Iraq was created by the British. There will probably be a Kurdish north, Sunni Center and Shia south.

That's what it was (until the British mucked it up) and that's the way it probably should be.

These are adults we're talking about. The Iraqi people don't need no fuckin' neo-con, fascist incompetents telling them how to run THEIR FUCKIN' COUNTY...

[tocqueville]

16. it's going to be a civil war

the Shiites would subdue the Sunnis quite easily with Iranian help, Al Quaeda would move somewhere else (Egypt ?) ...

the problem is the Kurds, they have their chance in a century, they won't give up

it will take 10-20 years to sort out

[delen]

19. It 's probable

that Turkey would invade Iraq due to Kurdish groups on both sides of the border staging raids on military outposts in Turkey. The Turkish government has stated they would invade with or without our presence if this does not stop.

[tocqueville]

20. Would be difficult for Turkey to do it

because they would sink their chances of joining the EU for ever.

But not impossible.

Probably the EU could manage a deal between the Kurds and Turkey. The Kurds could be intelligent enough to cut the grass under the feet of the small remaining PKK groups in Turkey against promises of non interference and some local rights of cultural expression on teh Turkish side.

But other actors like Iran and even Syria whhich have Kurdish minorities could be less cooperative. Besides the Kurds have a bad reputation in the fundamentalistic Arab world, since their Islam is very liberal and because they have allied themselves not only with the US in Iraq but even with Israel. And the latest is even worse.

Then there is the question of the oil. They sit on most of it. And normally it means trouble.

[zulchzulu]

18. Pol Pot-style purge/civil war/attacks by neighbors with or without US

It's over.

We have opened Pandora's Box.

We need to get out as fast as possible. Because of Chimpy, more terrorism is heading here...what was possible is now inevitable.

Watch your back. Our own government is aiming to go into a much more secret government mode. Thanks to PNAC and Bush, there will be a great storm ahead.

Curfews and martial law are right around the corner with the next terrorist strike, all done and allowed by our own government.

Live your life as best and as positive as you can. Courage may be a rare commodity.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[babylonsister]

22. Well, dammit, this should be nomintated, if only

for differing opinions. And there are many.