This Dean supporter is cautious about New Hampshire.

[mzmolly]

I dont trust the polls personally. This is an expectations game, and the polls showing Dean approaching Kerry were not the most accurate in Iowa.

I am not relying on the polls this time, I will await actual results.

Dean will not drop out if he doesn't finish as expected in NH. So if the media is trying to set me up for a disapointment, it won't work this time around. :tinfoilhat:

Dean coming out of NH in the top 3 is fine by me. Onward to SC for the Doc!

[Mass_Liberal]

1. NH is important

We need to work there as hard as possible before brushing it of and moving to SC. I believe we can win it, or definetly come in a strong second. And then of course, we Dean supporters will be movin' on to SC and then the Super Tuesday states. We won't give up!



GO DEAN!!!:bounce:

[Nicholas_J]

32. New Hampshire is important

But if either Dean or Kerry wins that state, it really says little about their electability elsewhere, or the resonance or their messages in other areas of the country. Its their own backyard. For them to come in first or second is far less important than, to be honest Kerry beating Gephardt in Gephardts own back yard.

Dean was elected Governor five times, But Kerry has been elected to office by the people of his own State for about thirty years.

For either of them to win in New Hampshire would be nothing, exceptional. Now some upset in which Edwards or Clark won first place, or knocked someone out of second, either Kerry or Dean, would have extreme value in going on to the next primary or caucus.

Virtually any time someone from New England runs for president, they tend to win in New Hampshire. Paul Tsongas for example. Michael Dukakis.

When Harkin ran for President, who do you think took Iowa's caucus. It is pretty much expected.

[Rowdyboy]

2. I can't believe any of us still trusts polls after Iowa...

They mean little of nothing

[jmaier]

3. My approach exactly

Although I support Clark as first choice. It's silly to get into a dither about these polls. It's a very fluid race, independents are hard to gauge and Gov Dean has a very solid base of NH supporters.

I also agree, his campaign has the money and infrastructure to keep running effectively through the early March Super-Tuesday which I would recommend. Win or lose the nomination, piling up delegates gives him some influence at the convention.

[Cheswick2.0]

4. I will be very happy if he finishes 2nd

And NO he will not be dropping out if he doesn't finish first or even 2nd. He has the money and the organization in place to continue up through the early march primaries.

[mzmolly]

9. You got it! Don't look for Dean to drop out anytime soon~!

:)

[joshcryer]

::waves:: Me too Cheswick.

:)

[Cheswick2.0]

30. Hi Josh

Haven't seen you in awhile! Good to see you.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

5. Me too

Expect nothing.

[Sterling]

6. I sent money for the second time tonight.

I can't see the party lasting long if we don't give Dean the nomination.

[mzmolly]

7. I agree. Bush lite or Dean..

Not a tough choice.

[Cheswick2.0]

17. I agree Sterling

I see a big loss in Nov if Dean isn't the candidate.

[cthrumatrix]

8. Kerry is up anywhere from 3+ to 15+...let's be honest ...and I'm a Dean

supporter.

If you would have asked me last thurs if I would be happy with a 10% 2nd place...I would have said yes becuase of the polls.

The fact is NH has closed alot becuase of Dr Dean ...his message and his supporters...they undertand who he is.

Anything can happen...

With this experience Dean is tougher...he's been raked over the coals and he has come out with his message received well and his ability to continue on successfully. I think this is true becuase of his experience on delivering solutions to issues and that he is in NH this week.(close to VT)

[Cuban_Liberal]

10. I have a gut feeling Dean may pull it off.

That's all it is--- a feeling--- but I'm getting strong vibes off the crowds I see on TV, and they're saying "Dean" to me.

[Nicholas_J]

11. The only poll that comes out of New Hampshire is here:

Thies final poll just came out about a half an hour ago (voting starts at midnight in a few places in New Hampshire)



WMUR/University of New Hampshire Final Poll for N.H. Primary


Clark 11%
Dean 25%
Edwards 13%
Kerry 36%
Kucinich 3%
Lieberman 7%
Other 0%
Undecided 6%

with undecided allocated(to candidate they state most likely to support

Clark 12%
Dean 26%
Edwards 14%
Kerry 38%
Kucinich 2%
Lieberman 7%
Other 0%
Undecided 6%

Breakdown by Registration Status

Clark

Registered
Democrat 9

Undeclared 14

Dean

Registered
Democrat 29

Undeclared 19

Edwards

Registered
Democrat 14

Undeclared 12

Kerry

Registered
Democrat 37

Undeclared 34

Kucinich

Registered
Democrat 2

Undeclared 3

Lieberman

Registered
Democrat 3

Undeclared 10


Undecided

Registered
Democrat 6

Undeclared 7

Percentage of Kerry Supporters Very Confident he will win nomination 55%

Percentage of Dean Supporters Very Confident he will win nomination 22%

Kerry well positioned for the election with support evenly distributed
among political and demographic groups.

Support for Dean Concentrated among liberals and young voters.


http://www.unh.edu/ipssr/survey-center/track2004.html

(Had to hand type the data from a Adobe pdf file...)

University of New New Hampshire poll gives a breakdowm of percentages of Registered Democrats and Undeclared Party people they polled in order to get the average which is the final poll result.

Also the second part of the poll distributes the percentage of people polled to the candidate that they stated they were most likely to vote for.

Dena and Kerry have the highest percentages of suppoerwes who are definitely voting for their candidate, with Dean's supporters 78 percent definite and Kerry with 75 percent definite.

Kerry has almost equal number of registered and independent voters supporting him

Dena has about 25 percent less independent voters than registered democrats supporting him


Big surprise is that Joe Lieberman has more than three times as many independents supporting him than registered democrats.

[mzmolly]

12. Sounds like it's true that Right leaning independents are going to the

polls for Kerry. I heard that on CNN tonight. They are basically voting *against* Dean.

Pretty stupid considering they claim Rove want's to run against him so badly.

Kerry

Registered
Democrat 37

Undeclared 34

[cthrumatrix]

25. it's another ballot box stuff play...because they can...NH has a huge # of

independents....

Nothing is fair when you have this going on

[Nicholas_J]

31. Again

As this poll, the scientific one, taken in New Hampsire, by people who live and work in New Hampshire indicates, that it is Kerry, not Dean, who is drawing a larger percentage of his support base from independents, not Dean.

Unoversity of New Hampshire poll, with the number of people beingt polled almost equally divided between Democrats and independents. This is hardly ballot stuffing. This poll and the Boston Globe poll through KRC researhc in Newton Mass, are the only two polls in which you see them indicate the percentage of the people that they polled who are independent voters.

[Nicholas_J]

29. Not necessarily

There are many left leaning independents in New Hampshire and there are so many indepenent progressives who belong to either the Green Party other progressives that there is a coalition of groups called the New Hampshire Progressive Network. each party is relatively small, so they formed a network. I think the other is the New Hampsire Bullmoose Party

The National Green party disavowed endorsing Kucinich, and so the Greens in New Hamspshire are supporting whoever they feel has bewtter envoronmental credentials, and since Kerry's endorsement by the League of Conservation Voters. Also the Sierra Club, though they did not support endorse Kerry, Prefer him as he has proposed much higher environmental standards than other senators (he and John McCain sponsored a bill they wanted passed that would have raised CAFE standards to a mandated 36 miles per gallon, and this was considered impossible by those beltway insiders everyone is so fond of comparing
http://www.nationalcenter.org/TSR31402.html

As Senator, Kerry has been endorsed by the Sierra Club, while Dean was never endorsed in any of his five terms as Governor:

The Environmental Voter

Annette Smith isn’t alone in her criticism. “Howard Dean’s environmental record in Vermont is toxic,” says Tom Elliott, the former volunteer political director for the Vermont Sierra Club.


Contrast that with this quote from the Sierra Club:
"There is no stronger advocate in the Senate for environmental protection than John Kerry."


In five elections, Dean was never endorsed by his state’s chapter of the Sierra Club. John Kerry has been consistently endorsed by the national Sierra Club and also has a 96% lifetime rating from the League of Conservation Voters. John Kerry is the environmental standard bearer of this election.

http://constellationdesign.net/S4K/index.php


On the other hand, Dean does not have much support from the Vermont Sierra Club, or other Vermont Environmental organizations, so Kerry is picking up sizable environmentalist support in N.H.



Same thing is happening in South Carolina. Where the following legislative ranking are given to the candidates who have records:

Environmental Records of Presidential Candidates

How do the 10 presidential candidates stack up on the environment?

The respected League of Conservation Voters rates the candidates
on their environmental records. Here is how they stand:


96% John Kerry
93% Joe Lieberman
90% Dennis Kucinich
76% John Edwards
No voting record Wesley Clark
No voting record Howard Dean
No voting record Al Sharpton
"F" report card George W. Bush

http://www.southcarolina.sierraclub.org/pol-prescands.html

Though Dean's record in Vermont has been commented on by a Vermont Sierra Club Activist:


Although he developed a fairly strong record on land conservation, in spite of failing to support some key land programs, he made himself a dismal record on other environmental issues.

He strongly supported everything the utilities and ski areas ever asked him to do. He supported mega-purchase from Hydro Quebec, refusing to even consider any alternative or the adverse impacts on our state’s economy. (Both he and the utilities spent the next decade complaining about the high prices and trying to get out of the contracts, as though they were someone else’s evil doings.)

During a major battle over mwater/sprawl legislation, he claimed that water from those polluted streams was cleanenough to drink. I wouldn’t want this guy as my doctor, thank you.

He did offer nominal, initial support to a renewables bill two years ago, but when push came to shove he refused to lift a finger in support. He repeatedly had his secretaries and commissioners run
various collaborative policy-making groups, only to have the facts emerge later that the “fix was in” from the start with his road-building, air polluting, power producing campaign donors.

His record is one of opposing just about everything the environmental
lobby supported. He was always there with the lip service as long as there was actually nothing on the table. He has developed a reputation for saying what his audience wants to hear, then doing whatever suits him later.


http://www.thomasleavitt.org/personal/blog/index.php?p=311&c=1

New Hampshire Independents are fairly well divided between those who are conservative, and those who are progressive. About half of the independents in N.H. are conservatives and comitted to supportingBush.

Those who are going to vote democrat for the msot part are not part of the "Rovian Plot" but are progressives similar in political outlook to the Vermont Progressive Party, who actually got such a boost in Vermont as a result of the many liberal democrats in that state who left the democratic party due to Deans conservatism, both fiscally and in other matters, that they left the Democrtic Party because Dean was its leader, and joined the Vermont Progressives who have eelcted half of the United States third party state legislators to the Vermont Legislature. Demcrats are literally unable to win elections in Vermont now, as the split that resulted from Dean's conservative policies have virtually created two parties, with the Progressives making up 25 percent of Vermont's left of ceter parties, and the Democrats making up about 33 percent. meaning that Republicans have been able to win virtually every race they enter with 40 or 41 percent of the vote in Vermont.

With Kerry's history of environmental support both from the Sierra Club as Senator, and from the League of Conservations Voters, Kerry has a strong support base from liberals and progressives.

[mzmolly]

37. Fact is Nick J, according to a NH election official the Right leaning

Rethugs are leaning Kerry, and not being accounted for in the polls. They are expected to show up in large #'s tomorrow.

[mandyky]

13. Bill Clinton didn't win NH

As long as Dean finishes second, he'll be okay. Third will be iffy, but doable.

[Victor Wong]

16. The same guy didn't win Iowa and NH in Clinton's case.

big difference.

[mzmolly]

23. No, not really. Many presidents go on to win without Iowa/NH...

:hi:

Night gang~~!

[xultar]

14. Why, you've got a lock @ 2nd and creepin up on 1 n/t

[mzmolly]

18. Riiiight, and Iowa was a 4 way tie. I dont believe it.

:P

[Victor Wong]

15. Dean will not win a single primary.

If he doesn't come in top 2 in NH, he should give all the money back to his donors, because he isn't going anywhere.

[Cuban_Liberal]

19. Welcome to DU, VictorWong

How do you like your 1st day here? :)

[Victor Wong]

20. Fierce!!!

Alot of battles going on!!

[Cuban_Liberal]

21. Pfffft!

People are being nice today. You should have seen this place last Monday night. It was UGLY! :P

[mzmolly]

22. You wish. It's about delegates not winning every primary.

Dean has solid support through out, and after his finish in NH, he'll climb back up.

Also, I'll donate to keep him in this as long as I can.

Who are you voting for?

[bigtree]

24. Kudos to Gov. Dean supporters and your Man for keeping your balance

Best of luck tomorrow! :toast:

[bigwillq]

26. I'm happy with a second place for Dean

after this tough week. I know, Dean should be winning NH, but I feel Dean is back on track and a second place finish will solidify that. Even if he doesn't finish second I don't think he'll drop out but that would be a blow.

Who knows??? Dean may surprise us all and pull out the victory and then he may be the first front runner (I mean leading in the polls in a state) then falling out of the top spot then actually winning a state in the primary season!!

Go Dean!

[quaker bill]

27. Agreed mzmolly

I am in this for the long haul. It would be nice to win NH, but it is not necessary. A solid showing is all that is needed.

I will be hooking up with the 10,000 volunteers canvassing Florida fully expecting to see Govenor Dean in early March.

[slinkerwink]

28. I'm very cautious also---I'd be happy if Dean stays in the top three

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. Fourth would kind of be OK.

I draw the line at fifth, though.

[mzmolly]

39. Yeah Rummy, 5th would be a drag. But, heading onward no matter

right! :)

[Nicholas_J]

35. Dean

still has a possibility of winning New Hampshire, but given the results of polls out of that state, I think it is not likely. I am certain he will not be knocked out of second place by anyone, and will probably be a closer second than the polls indicate if does not win the primary, but I am just as certain that he cannot beat Bush in the general election, as I was studying Deans record as governor before anyone but Dean was running and there is far more there from Bush and his machine to mine and attack Dean on than Kerry.

No matter what some Democrats think about civil unions, there is still a considerable percentage of the poplation who oppose it, and in some areas of the nation, Democrats are more socially conservative and fiscally progressive than fiscally consevative and socially progressive. The south will be a big stumbling block for Dean. In South Carolina, 47 percent of the Democratic voters are socially progressive black voters, and they oppose civil unions 60 percent to 40 percent.

In the Southwest and California, the sam breakdown applies to democratic hispanics, but their breakdown is even more consevative with something like 83 percent being very socially conservative, and opposing civil unions. This is only one factor that will draw hispanics away from Dean and towards Bush, and has been one of the factors drawing Hispanics away from Democrats. In hispanic areas of the southwest, only 17 percent do not consider themselves democrats, yet they still have the highest socially conservative stance than any democrtic group.

I myself oppose the idea of Civil Unions, like Vermont Progressives did, becasue I think it is not an equitable solution, and take the stance that most Democrats and Progressives in Vermont did. They opposed civil unions and preferred giving gays the right to marry. In fact the initial bill presented to the Vermont Legislature, and moved on to the Vermont Judiciary Comittee was not for civil unions, but a bill that changed Vermont's marriage laws to eleiminate sexual preference from the law when it came to marriage. It was promarily Deans opposition to that bill that led to it being rejected, torn apart, adnd turned into the parallel civil union law that Vermonmt ended up with. Many Vermont Democrats andProgressives thought that Dean was out of touch with his opposition to the original bill:

Opening Day Demonstration

Early assumptions following the Court’s December 20 decision were that domestic partnership is the only real plan of action. Governor Howard Dean has said on several occasions that he would support domestic partnership legislation, but is uncomfortable with the idea of actual gay marriage. Dean has recently clarified his position, declaring in a radio interview, “I’m against gay marriage.”

“Dean is out of touch with folks. I’m pretty sure that separate but equal isn’t going to fly,” said Judy Sargent of Marshfield, VT. “We should save ourselves a lot of trouble and time and just make it marriage.”

http://www.mountainpridemedia.org/feb2000/news_centerstage.htm

Though polls stated that only 35 percent of Vermonters supported civil unions, there are indications that this was not the result of conservative opinion alone, but that many supported gay marriage and opposed civil unions. The elections of 2000 proved that point very well, as a sum total of 60 percent of the population voted for candidates who supported gay rights in Vermont (10 percent voted progressive, 50 percent democrat).

[mzmolly]

41. What Democrat doesn't *support* civil unions Nick J?

I'd like to know because they come off my ABB list.

[shivaji]

33. Dean has the resources to win sinificant no. of delegates nationwide...

and either be nominated Prez or at worst Veep.

Dean/Edwards ---or--- Edwards/Dean would both be unbeatable.

[artr2]

36. mzmolly, I feel really good about Deans momentum tonight

I have a feeling that Dean is going to surprise quite a few people tomorrow. I has worked his heart out the last week and I feel that he will be rewarded with a win tomorrow night. Call me an optimist if you like but what can I say.

[mzmolly]

38. I like your additude Artr2

:hi:

[WI_DEM]

40. Molly I'm with you, but

I do feel Dean is closing the gap. Unlike Iowa where he was losing ground daily I feel that in the last few days he has been gaining ground rapidly--but that Kerry is still leading. Maybe our ground troops will put us over the top--I hope. But a solid second, very close to Kerry would be be a shot in the arm for Dean--after all Clinton did the same in '92 and was "the comeback kid".

[mzmolly]

42. That would be great WI_DEM, but I have heard RW leaning Indi's are voting

in large #'s against Dean. I hope it isn't true. I'm counting my chicks when they're hatched this time.

I hope we count a lot tomorrow. :hi: