BREAKING NEWS!! LATEST ZOGBY POLL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Kerry 37%


Dean 24%

[ringmastery]

1. this poll is a joke

There was not a 10 point flip in one day. It's always been crap. There was no Dean bounce. Kerry has always been 10+ ahead. Zogby = crap.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. ROTFLMFAO

Zogby's the kind of gambler who changes his bet at the window....

[krkaufman]

10. He's a propaganda artist

(Warning: This is spin, of the "ROG wants Dean, fears Clark" variety.)

The "kill Clark" theory is that Zogby's earlier poll showing Dean gains was to try to boost Dean's vote totals (to bring voters back following the post-Iowa blowback).

However, Zogby may have been too effective, and is now concerned that his puffing Dean up to the point where he'd nearly caught Kerry may cause people to reevaluate their Kerry vote. A fear underscored by last night's HUGE wins for Clark in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location.

Clark starts the day 6 votes ahead...!! Take that Zogby..!


(OK, I'm howling.)

[isbister]

4. That does seem high

from what Zogby was saying last night on tv.

[ringmastery]

3. link

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=794

Pollster John Zogby: "For Kerry the dam burst after 5PM on Monday. Kerry had a huge day as Undecideds broke his way by a factor of four to one over Dean. Dean recaptured a strong lead among 18-29 year olds, Northerners, singles and Progressives. He narrowed the gap among men, and college educated, however Kerry opened up huge leads among women, union voters, and voters over 65 years of age. These groups gave Kerry the big momentum heading into the primary.

[JI7]

5. playing games with us ?

don't do that to us. can't see how such a change can take place in one day without some major factor involved.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. If You Read Zogby's Analysis And See Him On TV

you will come to the conclusion he's a pundit not a pollster...


I'd put him in the same category as Frank Luntz....

[jsw_81]

6. Everybody stay calm

Just wait until the real votes are counted tonight.

[isbister]

7. Kerry had a 19-point lead in Monday's one-day polling.

In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election . But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated. In our final sample, just about half (49%) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is fifteen points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only fifteen percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the President. Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and - this is particularly significant- New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.

"Edwards did not receive the same kind of Iowa bounce, as did Kerry. This is not surprising because he is not as well known nor has spent as much time in New Hampshire as the two front-runners. He is likely to end up in third place and that sets the table nicely for him in South Carolina.

"Clark and Lieberman are not out of the running for third place- but Clark has experienced steady downward movement and Lieberman has yet to catch on.

"A final note: I know that my polling in the past two-days has shown a close race. I have no doubt that this was the case. Dean had bottomed out in the latter part of the week, was re-gaining some of his support among key voting groups, and had rehabilitated up to a point his unfavorable ratings. But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message. New Hampshire voters are always volatile and its primaries are always fluid. I have never gotten a New Hampshire primary wrong. I stand by my close numbers of the last few days as much as I stand by these final numbers."

[WI_DEM]

9. I'm glad it is voting day

Let the voters decide. We will all know tonight.

[Moderator]

11. Locking

10. Do not use excessive capitalization or excessive punctuation in any post.

Thanks,

DU Moderator