UK government aide on the NH primary

[T_i_B]

Former Treasury aide Edward Miliband has been at the heart of two British election campaigns. So what would he make of the race for the Democrat candidacy? He seems most excited by the Howard Dean campaign funnily enough.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1131815,00.html

The intensity of the scrutiny can make or break a candidacy. John Kerry has noticeably raised his game over this final stretch. More pithy, more rousing, less aloof. Retired general Wesley Clark has found the scrutiny hard to withstand, being harried for the past week with questions about his position on the war and his recent conversion to the Democratic party.

And then there is Dean. Critics would suggest that he has been found out by the process: his loss in the Iowa caucuses followed by the now-infamous concession speech, in which a red-faced, shouting Dean seemed to lose the plot. Since "The Scream" Dean has regrouped and tried to calm down. To rescue his campaign, Dean has returned to the twin themes which propelled him to front-runner status: truth-telling and standing up to special interests. He uses his stance on the war to buttress a claim of honesty on domestic policy: the only Democrat running who will level with people that with a large fiscal deficit the government cannot balance the budget, create jobs for the unemployed, have a middle-class tax cut and fund college tuition. And, to the delight of the crowd, he plays up his independence from special interests. A campaign 90% funded by small donations means, he says, that "the only people I am going to owe anything to is you".

Part of his problem is that he does not have the unknown quality that Clinton had at this stage of the campaign. Voters have been exposed to him for about 18 months. Most seem at some point to have had a taste for him, but many of them have moved on. I attended a weekend focus group conducted by cable news channel MSNBC. Of 20 New Hampshire Democrats and independents gathered, 11 had once been Dean supporters. Now there were three. Why? Not the primal yell. Most thought of this as a media frenzy.

Dean is, though, regarded with affection. Karl, a retired fire captain, spoke for the group, to murmurs of approval: "This is the best campaign season we have had. It's because of Howard Dean. In their own way, everybody has responded to him." But now, the implication is, it's time to pick a nominee who can win.

The paradox is that while the undecided voters float away, the Dean campaign continues to boast the most committed supporters. Over at Dean HQ in Manchester, the mood remains upbeat. To enter this office is like going into no political campaign centre I have ever seen. Insurgent movement meets internet start-up. Housed in a large warehouse, a couple of hundred Dean workers, mainly volunteers, the vast majority under 25, sit working to coordinate, cajole and collate. It has none of the feel of professionalism, or professionalisation, of the Kerry operation or most modern party campaigns. This is grassroots activism.