Just found out that Harris poll is actually older than the ARG poll

[lancdem]

The Harris poll with Bush at 40 percent was released today but was conducted Aug. 9-16. (See http://www.pollingreport.com)

So that American Research Group poll with Bush at 36 percent is more recent (Aug. 18-21).

I wonder if the Harris poll had been done a week later, it would've been even lower.

[Pirate Smile]

1. Aaahh. Interesting. Good find.

[bluestateguy]

2. The difference is that the Harris Poll is more reputable

ARG's polls tend to be fickle. I'm not saying they were wrong this time. I don't know, but they are still a fairly new organization, and some of their polls have been criminally off-base.

I remember they had one on election eve 2000 showing Gore up 10 points in New Hampshire. Bush won NH by one point. Inexcusable.

[moc]

3. What are the standard errors of the estimates?

I haven't seen the direct reports, but they usually report those numbers with a +/- number following. My guess is that those two numbers (40 and 36) aren't all that different.

I agree with the timing issue as well.

Okay, I just looked at the link for the Harris poll. The SE is 3pt. So, if there's a similar range for the ARG poll, the numbers aren't that different.

[lancdem]

4. They do have one thing in common

a disapproval rating of 58 percent.

[lancdem]

5. I think their national polls the last couple years

have been more in line with others. For instance, they had Bush at 51 percent in January around the inauguration. That was a pretty typical number then.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

6. Check out the average of all recent polls....

From RealClearPolitics MINUS 13.8%


-----------Date Range-Approve-Disapprove-Spread

RCP Avg -- 8/8 to 8/23 .. 41.4%... 55.2% ....-13.8%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html