I fear Dean will win NH because of Bush-supporters voting for him

[DaisyUCSB]

or come close. I have friends at Dartmouth who say that Dean-voting Bush supporters are filling up talk radio.

And no, that's not the only reason I have for thinking that alot of them are doing that.

And yes, most of his votes will and have come from democrats. But a few thousand will be enough to tip the scales.

I think that there are 2 huge groups of republicans who will vote today. Moderate, centrist type republicans who are voting for Lieberman because they are upset somewhat with Bush, and those who want to see Bush win who are voting for Dean.

[bowens43]

1. Good!

[not systems]

2. Right...

just like he lost Iowa because of Bush supporters.

Dean can win against Bush because he has a pulse and human emotions.

[DaisyUCSB]

6. the issue isn't whether Dean can win against Bush

the issue is whether they think Dean would be easier to beat than Kerry, Edwards, and Clark, and I think that is the concensus mindset among republicans

[Cooley Hurd]

3. Links or actual proof of this...

...instead of conjecture? A friend of a friend isn't good enough for me...

<on edit - cricket chirps - no links or actual proof forthcoming - whatta ya know?> :eyes:

[CWebster]

4. And what will you say isf Kerry sweeps

After all, Kerry was the one who voted to support Bush more often than not.

[cthrumatrix]

5. thank you....go Dean.....screw the bashers

[DaisyUCSB]

8. that is very inacurate, Kerry has one of the highest ADA ratings in the

senate.

Dean governed as a very moderate democrat. Of course you're changing the subject

[cthrumatrix]

7. Just like Iowa --- oops that was Kerry.....with all the new registrations

[DaisyUCSB]

13. Well I don't know anybody in Iowa

but I do in New Hampshire and if someone in New England has been listening to whatever station they play some guy named Mike Barnickel on they evidently would have heard it as well.

Do you think that all of the New Hampshire republicans are too noble to cast a vote that they believe favors republicans or not?

[Cheswick2.0]

9. I think you have it backwards

Kerry is the easiest to beat in Nov and the pukes are all voting for him.

[DaisyUCSB]

17. Has 1 prominent GOP strategist or operative indicated that?

Because ALOT of them have indicated that Dean is there preference.

Just the other day the WP had an article that said the whitehouse political team least wanted to face Edwards and Clark, followed by Kerry, and that Dean was there favorite choice to face.

You can deny that the overwhelming wish of the right-wing establishment is foolish, but it's really hard to deny WHAT the overwhelming wish of the right is. I think it's clear that it's Dean.

And no I don't think Dean would be unable to beat Bush, nor do I think they think that

[ryharrin]

38. ex-freaking-actly.

They've all said that Dean would be the easiest to beat. Do you really think that republicans let their strategy be known so easily? Of course Dean wouldn't be the easiest to beat. Lieberman, Sharpton or Kucinich would be the easiest ones to beat, with Kerry a close fourth. Remember about a month ago when they said they were most scared of Gephardt? Did anyone really believe THAT?

[Cuban_Liberal]

10. Most of the Republicans I know here in IL fear Dean and Edwards.

They frankly believe that those two would be the most difficult to defeat, because both can and do appeal to Independents and liberal Republicans. I also know many Republicans who intend to vote for Gov. Dean in the primary, if he is still viable, because they support him.

[Cheswick2.0]

11. I think you have it backwards

Kerry is the easiest to beat in Nov and the pukes are all voting for him.
BTW, now matter what happens today Dean is staying in.

[RetroLounge]

12. Just like all those Republicans who voted for Kerry in Iowa

Glad we Dems let the Repugs decide everything for us!

[flpoljunkie]

14. NH official said that GOP had to change registration 30 days ago to vote

in the primary today, and that there was very little changing of registrations.

Independents can vote today in NH by asking for either a Democratic ballot or a Republican ballot.

Don't know if you can register at the polls today in NH, but first time voting is up at one featured precinct this AM.

[JVS]

15. Somewhere Republicans are arguing about which candidate is more electable

and outdoing each other to post positive things about the Democrats that the others plan on backing. They would all pick Kucinich as the least electable, but they are afraid that by picking their first unelectable choice they might not keep a truly electable candidate from getting the nomination, so they have settled for supporting a less unelectable candidate. The consensus is unclear so they continue to hurl hateful positive things about the Democratic candidates at each other. Ok, enough with the Bizarro world.

If we cannot agree on who can beat Bush, what makes you think that they can?

[LuminousX]

18. Thank you for attempting to fit logic into this debate

Some people act like the Republicans see things with clearer eyes than we do.

[LuminousX]

16. I shouldn't expect anything better than threads like this ... sad.

[mzmolly]

19. ACTUAL EVIDENCE states otherwise. Allow me to explain

37% of Kerry supporters in NH are not registered Dems. I heard a NH election official state yesterday that much of KERRYS support was coming from Right wing inde's.

There was bigoted Push Polling done in Iowa on behalf of John Kerry smearing Dean.

Do YOU have any actual evidence to support YOUR claim?

[Old and In the Way]

24. All the more reason to choose Kerry!

If the majority of Indies are casting their preference with Kerry, that must mean he's the thinking man's choice to beat Dimson this fall.

It's all about the undecideds....Democrats will hang with whoever we nominate, but who we nominate will impact on the whether the undecideds split or move to support the Democratic candidate. A big plurality of Indies voting for Kerry should tell us that he's the man to beat Bush.

[mzmolly]

31. If they weren't doing it to give Bush a wishy washy easy to beat opponent

I might agree.

[joanski01]

20. I heard a caller on C-Span

this morning say exactly that, only he said he was voting in the Detroit primary. He said if Dean was still in the race, he was voting for him because bush* will beat Dean easily.

[LuminousX]

23. I remember the same thing being said about Jesse Jackson

So long ago. I was a Young Republican at the time and it was commonly discussed in our group that those who were old enough to vote (we had two 18-year-olds in our group) should register as Democrats to vote for Jackson in the primary. Nothing came of it.

It is talked about quite a bit, but the types of people who actually make it to the polls are the type who take it seriously. And any organized efforts are going to be pretty minor in comparison to what the actual campaigns are doing that the numbers are insignificant in choosing a winner.

But go ahead and believe this bit of election folklore. Most people believe what they want regardless of what the facts are.

[emulatorloo]

21. Bush is scared of Dean and Kerry, his comments prove that

He made snarky comments about both of them - they both scare him, elsewise he would have "remained Presidential and above the Fray"

He's right to be scared -- they are gonna get him.

ABB!

[AP]

22. You have to hope for a ton of Democratic turnout.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. Let's hope so. If the puglies are stupid enough to vote for him...

probably the only one who can beat the goober, more power to 'em.

[Logansquare]

26. If the Republicans were pushing Dean,

we would not have seen the "scream" hundreds and hundreds of times in the last week. They may not totally control mainstream media, but damn near, and if they want Dean, they have a funny way of showing it.

[Woodstock]

27. Sounds like Rove propaganda

Logic would dictate that if you had a chance of an "easy opponent" you'd wait until he got picked before slamming him - or tipping your hand about him.

They doth protest too much. And so do you. It doesn't become Democrats to repeat Rove propaganda. Why allow someone else to pull your strings?

[DaisyUCSB]

32. I'm not repeating Rove propaganda, why the heck to you have to say that?

Part of the reason so many democrats are turned off by Dean is the message that he and so many supporters imply that if you support his opponents or are against him your democratic purity is suspect.

It's unfair and rude.

[MGKrebs]

28. We have nothing to fear but fear itself!

[tryanhas]

29. I have been worrying about this happening for over a month

That's why NH needs to get rid of SAME DAY REGISTRATION.

Anyone with any agenda can walk in and vote.

That's why NH is notorious for throwing a monkey wrench into things! It's not because they are independent minded, HE, HE, HE (that's the media laughing about NH voters), it's because Republicans can srew up the Democratic vote, and Democrats can screw up the Republican votes, whenever it's beneficial for them to do so, mainly in years when the other party has an incumbent in office!

It's not a secret that the GOP wants to run against Dean, and no matter what a lot of his people believe, it's also not a secret that Dean would lose MOST OF THE STATES THAT GORE WON, and get the floor mopped up with him by Bush, along with losing more and more seats in the house and the senate for Democrats.

Disagree at your own peril, but pretty much, even the Democratic party acknowledges this.

So, I have been going over this NH scenario for over a month, and I hope that it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does. I want this thing to be fair, and I hope, for the love of God, that the GOP stays out of this thing and lets the voters decide, but they don't have a good track record of doing that.

[Woodstock]

30. The same could be said of Kerry, who happens to be leading

That kind of messes up all your false logic. But I'm sure you'll think of another way to slam Democrat Dean.

[DaisyUCSB]

33. My dad, a former DNC strategist turned advertising exec, has been saying

that for about a year. My disposition to disagree with your parents has had me giving Dean a real open mind, but the more and more I read about political science and practice in modern times, like at college and in books, leads me to believe that you are right, and that not only would he likely not be able to win red states, but that he could very easily be beaten in our crucial states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Mexico.

[salin]

34. A couple of comments

1) We have heard people claim this same thing (with different democrats being the target). It would take a huge number of crossovers to make an impact on any final vote, and I don't see it happening.

2) I think that even if it is happening, the republican crossovers will lose out in the end - regardless of who they crossover to help. Final numbers showing a huge number MORE voting for democratic candidates than for bush... (esp if they were to do this in several states) will send a message to fence sitters. Several in fact. That folks are no longer afraid for "patriotic" (post 9-11) reasons to 'not support the president'. The additional media coverage to any (or all) democratic candidates if in state after state there are record (for recent years) turnout in democratic covereage would hurt bush. There are many reasons folks are increasingly on the fence about Bush. The country was already split. I think all of the candidates have an exceptionally decent shot at defeating bush.

I also think that if large enough crossover votes poured in to tip the primary results, then the negative consequences of public perception will further tip the polls away from Bush. Always a bit amusing when some republicans would be willing to cut their nose despite their face.

[Adjoran]

35. repubs can't vote in the Democratic Primary

only Democrats and independents. The repubs would have had to switch registration thirty days ahead. I've seen NOTHING to indicate that happened.

Is the campaign so boring we have to invent new things to worry about? Not to me.

[DaisyUCSB]

36. almost half of New Hampshirites are independants

40 something percent, and considering that it is a republican dominated state, that elects 2 VERY right wing republican senators. That ALOT of independants are independants in registration only. That want Bush reelected

[ButterflyBlood]

42. hardly

NH was one of the closest states last year, The Nader vote was higher than the Gore margin of loss. Many of these independents may vote Republican on the state and local level, but vote Democratic on the national level. Presidentially NH is split, and the independents are probably split as well. In fact I'd bet more independents are Democratic-leaning on the presidential level since Republicans probably have a huge registration advantage.

[demdave]

37. This doesn't happen in any appreciable numbers.

I have been an election official for almost 15 years, so I know a little about the system.

During the last primary, there was a concerted effort to change party affiliation and vote for McCain in the primary. You remember I am sure, people were to vote for McCain in the primary and then for Gore in the general election. It was spread in websites, like the DU and others, and by word of mouth. The end results, that I directly observed, were a few people changing their affiliation and actually doing it and even more confused voters that didn't realize they would have to be Rep for 4 years and not doing it.

As hard as it is to get people out to vote, I cannot believe that any effective voter fraud could ever be pulled off in this fashion. You have a better chance of herding cats. Generally, people are lazy and the motivated ones are too idealistic to change their party affiliation.

[AntiCoup2K4]

41. Guilty as charged. I voted for McCain in 2000

But unlike some, I didn't do it because I thought Gore would beat him easily. I did it because I knew that a Bush Jr presidency would be a complete fucking disaster, like his father's was. God, was I ever right :( But I never could have predicted the degree to which he would surpass Poppy in terms of complete shitheadedness.

[AntiCoup2K4]

39. Let the 'Pukes vote for him in every primary if they want to

And then we will have a decent nominee who will KICK BUSH'S LYING ASS!

Why does that seem to bother the DLC types so damn much? :shrug:

[Snivi Yllom]

40. oh please

Dean was counted out, flatlined...well guess what he was never dead....