My personal fear: We will FALL back into RECESSION

[Selatius]

The uncertainty over the war in Iraq helped to stoke high gas prices, as well as incredible demand from countries like China. In addition, Katrina knocked out a good chunk of the US ability to refine crude, and this will only push gas prices even higher.

The result, I fear, is a drop in consumer demand for things such as electronics and other non-essential goods, and that will directly translate into the US economy slipping back into recession. The growth of the US economy up until now has been anemic at best, not enough to provide jobs at the pace necessary to keep pace with people entering the labor force.

The fact is we no longer have the money left to do anything. We're borrowing everything now to pay for the war in Iraq, and now we will have to borrow even more money for Katrina. Foreign investors will begin to question EVEN MORE the US government's ability to pay off its damn bills, and the value of the dollar could tumble even further.

[Birthmark]

1. Recession is inevitable, if not already here.

[NMDemDist2]

2. agreed n/t

[saracat]

3. We were never "out' of recession!

My fear is that this disaster will make it obvious and tear the veneer off the "fake " recovery. C'mon, you didn't "believe " we weren't in recession did you? How can you have a "jobless" recovery? My husband has been looking for a job for two years! The only jobs to be had are service jobs.

[Selatius]

6. Well, I went by strict definition:

A recession is two or more quarters of negative growth. We've been growing each semester since that last happened, but the growth has been less than 2 percent each quarter. In some quarters, it was just a fraction of 1 percent. You have a good point though.

[TheDonkey]

4. It is coming in the next year. Gas prices+Iraq+Bush= Recession

the economy has barely taken a breathe of air since the disasterous 1st term and we are in for more sinking now.

BUT, Republicans are pro-economy.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

5. Probably unavoidable, unfortunately

Nobody in his or her right mind is going to invest in low-yielding, potentially defunct US T-bills anymore, and China, Japan and South Korea are getting sick and tired of showing up at US debt auctions to buy up our worthless debt. We're paying hundreds of billions of dollars in interest on the federal budget debt each year!

This is very similar to the complex of factors that destroyed the British Empire after the world wars, turning a potentate that had ruled almost 1/4 of the world's population (albeit indirectly in most cases) into a shaken, bankrupt nation with people standing in food lines and now with a leader who fecklessly follows the idiotic foreign policies of US leaders. If China and/or Japan doesn't show up at a single US debt auction, you might as well use your US$ as kindling for your fireplace, cuz they ain't gonna be worth much anymore. Already Iran and Russia are selling much of their oil in return for Euros, Venezuela already doing the barter thing, and Hugo Chavez being one attempted coup away from cutting off the spigot to us altogether. (Thank you, Pat Robertson-- ack, could that guy possibly be a bigger idiot?) Plus Iran is less than a year from initiating their own oil bourse (along with the ones in New York in London) that will denominate sales in Euros, dropping the demand for dollars even further.

In a previous decade this *could* have worked to our advantage by making our goods and services cheaper to export, but since we've been stupid enough to outsource just about everything worth selling overseas, we're screwed on that front too. Would not at all be surprised by another recession on the horizon-- and a nasty one at that.

[blondeatlast]

7. If it hasn't already occurred, we are going to see a MASSIVE drop

in confidence.

Were the "starve the beast"ers like Norquist prepared for this to occur all at once?

We're about to find out, America.

Hug your kids tonight.

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

8. When exactly did we get OUT of it?

I KNOW CEOs saw higher pay.

I know Bush's base has had a painless five years under his "rule."

The recession ended? When? When the high tech jobs bled over to India like a stuck pig?

[Arger68]

9. As a nation, we've maxed out our

credit card, and now lost our job. (I should say, * maxed out our credit card.)

[greekspeak]

10. Try a depression

A real mess is being made out of things right now...by humans (and chimp) and by nature. A perfect storm brewing.

[sendero]

11. "recession"...

.... is a carefully crafted state that doesn't describe the economy of the last 5 years technically, but in spirit defines it perfectly.

This economy has been limping for 5 years. Forget the cooked unemployment stats, forget the fact that corporate America managed to eke out some small profits by sending American labor overseas.

The costs of that game are coming due. I'll be happy if we can jnust avoid an all-out 30's-severity depression, because that is what I think is about to happen.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

12. we've been in an unending, unreported recession

the rate of real job growth has been nothing but lies, lies and more lies. We need 250,000 new jobs every month just to tread water to keep up with new entries into the employment sector - (immigrants, people turning 18, people getting out of college, etc. etc.)

We have failed to even maintain this level of stagnant growth for quarter after quarter. When people drop off the unemployment rolls, often it is because they have become "underemployed" - working at a job under their skill and salary level, or they are "overemployed" - working 2 jobs to match a salary level previously obtained with one job, - or they have become "permanently" unemployed - they have dropped out of the job market altogether.

Our housing bubble has been artificially sanctioned and maintained by Alan Greenspan, whom history will realize is the biggest
f!@@#$$ing idiot in the history of the fiscal world. He should have slowly and steadily increasing interest rates over the last five years - this would have encouraged savings and tamped down the speculative real estate market.

The only people who have profited in the last five years of the Bush administration are the wealthy who have seen their taxes cut and the uber-wealthy who have profited from wars, oil, outsourcing, consolidations, and insane corporate renumerations for their pathetic in-bred, self-congratulatory, business "skills"