Daily Kos: 1 PM Exit Poll Reports

[goobergunch]

<snip>

Update 2: Here are the 1 p.m. exit poll numbers I've been able to get my hands on (from a media source. Caveat emptor):

LA Times:

Dean 34
Kerry 33

ABC News:

Kerry 37
Dean 31

In both these polls, both Clark and Edwards are hovering around 12 percent.

The National Review's The Corner has Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12 and Clark 12. Probably the ABC News tracking poll with Kerry's number rounded down.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760

[JohnKleeb]

1. gonna be close

I already have tonight Vincent Hamm in mind :) though. Though likely I will be online doing other stuff, talking with friends, maybe some DUers not sure yet.

[Skinner]

2. Whoa!

It's going to be an interesting night.

[ShaneGR]

3. That would be with like 10% of the voters

Most don't show up until the early afternoon anyways. I remember reading that 50% of NH voters show up around lunchtime.

[Kira]

4. who is this?

MSNBC keep saying Kerry is the frontrunner. Wouldn't they know about these numbers?

[slinkerwink]

5. I'm so nervous!

[Snivi Yllom]

6. Zogby hedging his predictions

Zogby in his final prediction has Kerry 37 Dean 24 Edwards 12 Clark 9 Lieberman 9
"For Kerry the dam burst after 5PM on Monday. Kerry had a huge day as Undecideds broke his way by a factor of four to one over Dean. Dean recaptured a strong lead among 18-29 year olds, Northerners, singles and Progressives. He narrowed the gap among men, and college educated, however Kerry opened up huge leads among women, union voters, and voters over 65 years of age. These groups gave Kerry the big momentum heading into the primary.


"Kerry had a 19-point lead in Monday's one-day polling. In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election . But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated. In our final sample, just about half (49%) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is fifteen points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only fifteen percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the President. Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and - this is particularly significant- New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.

"A final note: I know that my polling in the past two-days has shown a close race. I have no doubt that this was the case. Dean had bottomed out in the latter part of the week, was re-gaining some of his support among key voting groups, and had rehabilitated up to a point his unfavorable ratings. But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message. New Hampshire voters are always volatile and its primaries are always fluid. I have never gotten a New Hampshire primary wrong. I stand by my close numbers of the last few days as much as I stand by these final numbers."

[janx]

9. Zogby actually threw his bias in too?

"Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and - this is particularly significant- New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president."

Did he actually say this? Do you have a link for this?


This is reprehensible.

[Snivi Yllom]

13. it's from Zogby's homepage

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=794

[returnable]

7. Where's the Joementum?

:hi:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

8. If my choice in New Hampshire has to be Kerry or Dean....

I must support Kerry.

:dem:

[incapsulated]

10. C'mon Clark...

I want 3rd so bad... please!

[Jack_Dawson]

11. General Clark - wake up your troops

3rd or higher must happen.

[Riptide]

12. Me too! Come on Clark!!!

nt

[feckerman]

14. C'mon DEAN!

While a close second is incredible, FIRST is even better :)