Will Edwards win the spin tonight?

[poskonig]

A specific expectations game plays for each candidate. Kerry needs a strong win, and Dean needs a strong showing after the scream. I'm not certain if either candidate can do more than this; it isn't clear Kerry is going to win by a 10 pt margin. Dean's numbers I've seen as of 2:40 central time look competitive. Clark's campaign set their standard at third place a long time ago, and they are barely hanging on.

Edwards, however, has a *lot* to gain by a third place finish. One, he will be the Kerry-Dean alternative. Where Kerry is seen as dry, or Dean as reckless, Edwards can paint himself as the moderate, positive, upbeat, likable candidate that can deliver some of the south for the Democrats. In addition, finishing at least in third supplants Clark. Since the Edwards strategy is very similar to the Clark strategy, a third place finish sets him up well in South Carolina and possibly other states, if Edwards manages to exceed this expectation.

Is this a reasonable interpretation? If so, what can other candidates do to avoid this? I would say Kerry winning by 10+ and/or Clark finishing third would prevent this; otherwise, it is plausible Senator Edwards will probably win the spin tonight.

Thoughts?

[Democrats unite]

1. I believe you have put to much faith in polls.

I hope you are not to disappointed this evening.

[mlawson]

10. Yeah. Remember 2002???

We don't know who won, yet. We don't know who will win the spin, either.

[leyton]

2. Depends on if they are still tied.

It looks like Edwards and Clark are tied at the moment.

If they remain tied, then they've both gotten third place, but it won't be as sweet for either of them. So that contest - Edwards v. Clark, Southerner v. Southerner - won't be resolved until Feb. 3.

[The Sushi Bandit]

3. I think the real story will be how DK got such big numbers

aftr being relagated to the 1 to 2% basement

5. Right on.

Thanks for mentioning this.

[newyawker99]

6. Hi Patrick Henry!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[The Sushi Bandit]

7. Welcome!!!

4. I'm hoping Edwards comes in second. I would like to see Clark

and Kucinich do well too.

[Guaranteed]

8. Edwards was second in Iowa...now third or fourth?

Isn't that moving in the wrong direction?

[rumguy]

9. Edwards is looking to set himself up for the South - that's his turf

a strong showing gives him bragging rights