2002 NYT Editorial Observer on "The Big One"...eerie..note date..

[Princess Turandot]

If the Big One Hits, New Orleans Could Disappear
By ADAM COHEN

Published: August 11, 2002




EW ORLEANS — Dot Wilson knows how bad the Big One could be. When Hurricane Betsy hit New Orleans in 1965 with 125 m.p.h. winds, leaving 75 dead in Louisiana and South Florida, she walked more than a mile in chest-high water, holding her infant daughter overhead. But when Ms. Wilson held a hurricane-preparedness teach-in recently at the community center she heads, attendance was sparse. "A lot of people don't see storms as serious," she said with a sigh. But people who have been around for a while know better, she said, adding, "We saw the bodies."

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New Orleans's location was a triumph of romance over practicality. The French explorer who founded the city was so enraptured by this crescent-shaped stretch of the lower Mississippi that he ignored the naysayers, one of whom warned that it was "often flooded and filled with alligators, serpents and other venomous beasts." The result was a beautiful city, but a waterlogged one. Burials had to be above ground because gravediggers found they quickly struck water.New Orleans has struggled with water ever since. A 475-mile system of levees and locks along the river and lake holds back the water, and a network of pumps works full time moving water up and out. But the city is sinking as the soil under it settles, and sea levels are rising. And the coastal marsh and barrier islands, which form a protective wall against hurricanes, are being eaten away.New Orleans has struggled with water ever since. A 475-mile system of levees and locks along the river and lake holds back the water, and a network of pumps works full time moving water up and out. But the city is sinking as the soil under it settles, and sea levels are rising. And the coastal marsh and barrier islands, which form a protective wall against hurricanes, are being eaten away.

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There is considerable agreement about what the Big One would look like. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane would move up from the Gulf to Lake Pontchartrain, forcing lake water over levees and into the city. If the New Orleans "bowl" filled, the Red Cross says, there could be 100,000 deaths. An additional 400,000 could be stranded on roofs, surrounded by a witches' brew of contaminated water. Property loss estimates run as high as $150 billion, though much of the imperiled architecture — like the St. Louis Cathedral — is priceless.

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So far, Washington has done little, and New Orleans's response has been less than satisfying. The city is focused on evacuating its 500,000 residents. But the roads leading out would flood quickly, stranding those who lingered. Then there is the thorny issue of the 100,000 residents without cars. "When I do presentations," said Terry Tullier, head of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness, "I start by saying that `when the Big One comes, many of you will die — let's get that out of the way.'

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more:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/11/opinion/11SUN3.html?ex=1126238400&en=5712d3a66b2060bf&ei=5070

I don't know if this has been posted here before. I noticed it in the NYT special section on Katrina.

[GeorgeGist]

1. It would have been smart for Terry Tullier...

to have ended his presentation by recommending that his audience evacuate NO ASAP; unless they were willing to die.

Oh, but of course then he would been accused of being an 'Alarmist'.

"When I do presentations," said Terry Tullier, head of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness, "I start by saying that `when the Big One comes, many of you will die — let's get that out of the way"