Democrats Lead Republicans in 2006 Congress Race

[struggle4progress]

Angus Reid Global Scan) – The Democratic Party maintains the upper hand 14 months prior to the next congressional ballot in the United States, according to a poll by Princeton Survey Research Associates published in Newsweek. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for Democratic candidates, while 38 per cent would support Republican contenders. <snip>

Polling Data

Suppose the elections for the U.S. Congress were being held today. Would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?
(Leaners included)

Democratic Party 50%
Republican Party 38%
Undecided / Other 12%

Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates / Newsweek
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,009 American adults, conducted on Sept. 8 and Sept. 9, 2005. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/8998

Of course, we've been known to squander big leads before ...

[kster]

1. Looks great until

the vote stealing machines flip it on election day.

[Wabbajack]

2. Sadly the generic ballot is irrelevant

We've usually led on it. The house is 435 separate races.

[MuseRider]

3. If the Democrats

do not take advantage of this and make themselves look like something to vote for we will blow this lead. That and Diebold and we have no chance. Note to Democrats running, STAND for something besides going along and scream it so we can hear it and we will vote in large enough numbers to win.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. This generic ballot is worthless

We have led in every generic ballot since 1994 when we lost Congress. I remember looking at this same ballot in 2002 and 2004 before each election when we got our asses handed to us. While people may distrust Congress as a whole, they still stubbornly love their person.

[despairing optimist]

5. My prediction, for what it's worth, and I'll start the auction at 2 cents

Lots of things can happen in 14 months, and lots of things will. What will matter the most is what Democrats do. A majority of voters are already inclined to vote Democratic even though they don't know the candidates or the issues yet, but if the Dems don't flesh out the issues and present a strong case for change along with an equally strong program to get things done rather than simply criticize the way GOP either does the wrong things or nothing at all, then they'll be open to sidetracking and manipulation by the Repubs again. Yes, there's Plame, DeLay, Rove, Katrina, Iraq, and the economy, but there's also Intelligent Design, gay marriage, abortion, flag burning, and the culture of life. The election is still wide open, and no one is unhappier and more fearful than I am about that.

[Bumblebee]

6. Great until one realizes that 50% is the Dems' loose post-election "base"

and in order for them to gain big they need to break that barrier by showing not only that GOP are bastards but that they are better!

Pew is actually slightly more reassuring -- it's 52/40

http://pollingreport.com/

But both show that people are very uncertain about GOP and yet still not very certain about the Dems. This 10/12% can still go either way unless the Dems really work hard to gain them!

[struggle4progress]

7. Yes. eom