Kristol cherry-picked polling data to perk up Bush's political standing

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

Kristol cherry-picked AP, Rasmussen polling data to perk up Bush's political standing



http://mediamatters.org/items/200509260006

On Fox News Sunday, Weekly Standard editor William Kristol selectively cited polls by the Associated Press and by Rasmussen Reports to claim that President Bush's current job approval ratings are "almost the same" as what the AP reported to be his approval ratings over his handling of relief efforts for Hurricane Katrina. Reacting to host Chris Wallace's display of a September 16-18 AP/Ipsos poll that showed Bush's approval rating on Katrina at 46 percent with 51 percent disapproving, Kristol said that those numbers were "almost the same as his general approval-disapproval." National Public Radio (NPR) national correspondent Mara Liasson agreed that Bush's Katrina and overall ratings were "almost the same," as did Wallace. Then, in order to bolster his claim further, Kristol cited a Rasmussen Reports tracking poll that placed Bush's overall approval rating at 45 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. Rasmussen reported those numbers on September 23, 24, and 25.

By citing only the Rasmussen poll for Bush's overall approval rating, Kristol masked the AP poll's significantly lower findings on that question. Bush's overall approval, as measured on the same September 16-18 AP/Ipsos poll that Wallace used as his source for Bush's Katrina numbers, was at 40 percent, with 57 percent disapproving. A September 16-18 Gallup poll found the same overall approval rating of 40 percent, with 58 percent disapproving.

Fox News Washington managing editor Brit Hume then used Kristol's elevated approval number to attack a comment by NPR special correspondent Juan Williams, who characterized recent polling as showing that only Bush's "hard-core" support remained. Hume derided Williams' claim that only Bush's hard-core support remained as "silly," saying that since Bush's "hard-core" support was at 46 percent -- the higher approval rating that Kristol used -- that would be "the largest political base that anybody's ever had in the history of the country, if not the world."

Kristol also cherry-picked Rasmussen's polling data to avoid tarnishing his rosy characterization of Bush's political standing. While Kristol cited the Rasmussen tracking poll (which gave Bush a higher overall approval rating than the AP), he did not note Rasmussen's September 18 poll (which put Bush's Katrina approval rating far lower than the AP poll). According to Rasmussen, only 35 percent of Americans rated Bush's Katrina response excellent or good, while 64 percent called Bush's Katrina response fair or poor. In addition, while both AP and Rasmussen's poll numbers do agree with Kristol that Bush's approval rating has not dropped significantly since Katrina, others, such as pollster Mark Blumenthal, have commented that "if Katrina did not alter Americans' overall rating of Bush," the hurricane response "certainly did collapse perceptions of Bush on one key dimension: Being a 'strong and decisive leader,'" which, according to Gallup, has dropped nine points after Katrina.

[annabanana]

1. Kristol is a front line PNACer... nothing he says is true

and he believes that lying to achieve his ends is OK.. (and he's not shy about saying that either)

[Faygo Kid]

4. Yep. A principal architect of the war in Iraq. The SOB should be shunned

I cannot understand how he continues to be presented as having any credibility whatsoever. Sentence him to spending the rest of his days in a small room with Richard Perle.

[killbotfactory]

7. Neoconservatism is based on the idea that lying is okay

because the ends justify the means.

[henslee]

2. I've seen Krystol talk more shit and lose more panel discussions than

anyone. He should just get a big brown doodie tattoo on his news.

[panader0]

3. Bad guys

Check out the bad guys on www.beyonddelay.org

[newyawker99]

14. Hi panader0!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TallahasseeGrannie]

5. I arrived at DU

right after Katrina and have been saying that I believed Bush would go down because of the hurricane debacle.

I am not so sure now. I read recently (sorry, no link) that all recent presidents have gone down to 38 percent and even well below at some point in their presidency. This was very disappointing to me.

I have also maintained that Bushco would hang themselves given enough rope. Again, I'm not now so sure of this. He seems to be untangling himself and it is infuriating. Some of my colleagues who were badmouthing him last week are singing a different tune. I had to take my sandwich and get out of the lunchroom today..couldn't stand it.

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

8. I don't think Bush will go down over Katrina...

...but it will certainly make it harder for him to push through with his "agenda."

We've got:

1). Rove-Plame, waiting for Fitzgerald to hand down indictments

2). An economy on which only the CEOs have truly prospered

3). Over 200 Americans dead and counting in Iraq, plus billions being spent to sustain a war that we are losing

SO...Katrina is salt in the wound, and it's working in synergy with all of the other Bush failures, but I don't see him going down over it.

A belated welcome to DU, by the way.

:patriot:

[melody]

9. The difference I think is the degree of hatred toward Bush

I have friends who can barely say his name without adding a profane term or two to it (I add a bunch myself).

These polls are being cooked anyway, to support the fake election results.

[annabanana]

10. it's a tough road T.Grannie

And it's a long one. But every new convert, and everyone who finally understands what's going on is one more person that will help get the truth out.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

11. I know you are right

but it gets tiresome. AFTER work I had to leave the faculty lounge because some idiot (with a PhD) was talking about what a good time Cindy Sheehan appeared to be having when she was arrested.

The woman isn't allowed to smile, you know?

I guess she should be wearing a black veil or something.

[Lexingtonian]

12. it's a slow process

Most people here overestimate the impact of the emotional stuff and underestimate the effect of seemingly uninteresting events and national factual changes to Bush support. Except for ratings on 'handling terrorism', Bush support decline is fact a remarkably rational process despite all the emotional transitional states of disappointment.

In about a year, maybe as early as next summer, is when you'll see real Republicans truly walking away. The explanation is bit tedious, but basically their rationality tends to be cost/benefit analysis where Democrats' rationality tends to be ends/means analysis. The potential benefit has to vanish in every major policy area before they can't be suckered back into hoping the whole Bush Administration project succeeds.

Fortunately or unfortunately, all major policy areas are near the edge for them. Iraq is at the edge of being a bust, the whole tax cut/reduce spending game is near bust, the whole abortion banning and nutty judge appointment game is near bust, the Texas corruption/faux ethics game is near bust, Al Qaeda looks close to having slipped the nets.

It will take the national GOP addressing each one and demonstrable failure when they do, but they're where they have fires breaking out everywhere and imagine they can still douse them, so they'll go after each thing energetically. Hard stomping on thin ice.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

13. A comforting post. Thank you. n/t

[bballny]

6. Another Repub

in a long line of zero's who would be nothing if it wasn't for their fathers.

[zann725]

15. "Cherry pick?" Usually when you do, you end up with "pits"...

Interesting analogy.