If the Insurgency Stopped All Attacks?

[Disturbed]

If the Insurgency Stopped All Attacks

Would the Bush Admin. withdraw most of the troops from Iraq if the Insurgency stopped their attacks for about a month? Isn't the Bush Admin.excuse to stay in Iraq that the US must protect the new Iraqi Democracy? If the Sunnis decided to participate in the upcoming elections regarding the Iraqi Constitution wouldn't they be better off? Wouldn't the Insurgency be wise to cease all attacks now and place their energy into creating a solid base of Iraqis that want a secular Govt. and garner popular support to force the US/UK out of Iraq? If the Sunnis did vote enmass couldn't they negate this Constitution? What possible reason could the Bush Admin. conjur up to keep 140K Troops in Iraq if the violence ceased?

[enigma000]

1. Let me get back to you. . . .

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. That's easy, The Iraqi "government" would invite the US to stay

in order to maintain "stability in the region". No big deal, right? We used to do the same thing in Saudi, before Bin Laden kicked our ass out of there.

[brainshrub]

3. It's not the prerogative of the insurgency to stop.

The United States is the occupier. If we expect the insurgency to stop killing, our govt needs to give them a reason to. When someone is hurting you, you are only obligated to stop fighting back when the attacker backs down.

My suggestion is a solid time-table for a full pull-out of Iraq. If the Bush Administration thinks it can put together a working govt within, say, five years... then state so in writing and commit to a withdrawal.

With an honest, observable time-table, insurgents won't have a motivation to risk their lives. If they see the US leaving, why do anything that would block the way?

To be sure, there would still be a few wankers who would take pot-shots from time-to-time, But these individuals would be seen as criminals by Iraqi society, not heroes fighting the occupation.

Of course, such a plan would require trustworthy leadership at the helm of US foreign policy. This incompetent, untrustworthy administration is what dooms Iraq and the US to at least three more years of unending slaughter.

[Disturbed]

6. There would be no excuse to keep 140K Troops...

in Iraq if the bulk of the Insurgency stopped attacks. The Bush Admin. would certainly keep around 50K Troops on bases if the Insurgency stopped attacks. Once the bulk of the US Troops were gone the Insurgency would be in a better position to raly Iraqis to force the rest out along with the US Multi-Corps.

As it stands now, the US/UK are backing the Shi'ites and Kurds in the Civil War. Al Sistani has surely made a deal with the Bush Admin. regarding holding the Shi'ites back from actively forcing the US/UK and the Multi-Corps out. If the Sunnis were to cease the violent attacks and allign themselves with al Sadr and his supporters I feel that Middle Class and below of Iraqis would be better off.

[tocqueville]

4. the Sunnis won't commit collective suicide

They slaughtered 40 000 shiites to ensure a secular state after Gulf War. This hasn't been forgotten. They are now a ethnic minority and they don't have any oil. So they'll fight. And noone else wants a secular government. Regarding the Kurds they ultimately want independence and this is their best chance in 200 years.

The other "possible" reason is that the US want to secure permanent military bases and control of the oil...

[tocqueville]

5. read this article and you'll understand the stakes

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GJ01Ak03.html