Dick Morris is making the rounds. Predicts Rice would get at least 1/3

[win_in_06]

of the black vote.

This guy is full of it but will no doubt sell books. He is basically trying to recruit her to run.

[DemBones DemBones]

1. What an evil little

toesucker he is!

[mattclearing]

2. Whatever. Aaron McGruder called her "Darth Vader."

She would get even less of the black vote than Bush.

[Teaser]

3. Uh no.

The African American community does not care for Rice. At all.

[win_in_06]

5. I wonder if she would be villified during the SC primary

a-la McCain by the right-wingers in the race.

That could hurt her amongst some whites but maybe earn her some sympathy.

At any rate I'm not worried because I don't see her making it out of the primaries.

If she did face Hillary it would be an interesting race.

[Missy M]

4. Dick Morris is such a low life and soooooooo predictable...

the only reason he is touting Rice for president is because Hillary Clinton may run and would love a woman to run against her and beat her. Do you think Mr. Low Life Morris will ever give up with his jihad against the Clinton's?

[rodeodance]

7. Rice could bring in the black vote --that I believe (forget about the mess

-enger).

[Missy M]

10. Why are you so positive Rice could bring in the black vote....

I tend to believe black's vote on the issues and not along racial lines.

[Beetwasher]

12. Don't You Think That Attitude is A Bit Insulting To Blacks?

To suggest they would all of a sudden switch their allegiances and ignore issues just to vote for another black person? I tend to think that most people who vote are a bit more informed than the ones who don't, and that blacks in particular are quite informed voters. That's why they mostly vote Dem in the first place.

[Bucky]

19. Let's not overcategorize any people. But Identity politics is a real thing

Identity politics does carry a lot of weight with voters. Remember when there was all that buzz about Alberto Gonzalez for Supreme Court? Remember when LULAC, of all groups, started talking up Frodo Gonzalez's qualifications for getting on the Court? They shoulda known better, but they didn't. Or remember when Clarence Thomas got the nomination? His support in the African American community was HUGE. Or think about the overwhelmingly white Republican Party. They've exclusively nominated white candidates only for both president and vice president since 1936. How could any party have a worse record than that for inclusiveness in this country?

Um, not counting the Democrats, that is...

[marmar]

21. Where is/was this huge support for Clarence Thomas...

in the African American community? I'm African American, and have never met another African American who's ever thought he was anything but a fool. Same with Condi. Colin Powell seems to have more support among African Americans than those two, but that was severely tarnished by the UN dog-and-pony show.

[Bucky]

30. You may be politically savvy. Most Americans are not. In 1990 his support

In 1990, much to my dismay, support for Thomas among African-Americans ran well above 60% when he was first nominated. After Ms Hill came forward, it fell, somewhat. But back when the only thing we knew about Thomas was that he was black and Bush had nominated him to fill Marshall's seat (and that he'd never once in his life thought about the issue of abortion!) his support was pretty strong among blacks--based on public polling.

Does everyone you know now say they were against him? That doesn't surprise me. After the Kennedy assassination up to 70% of poll respondents said they voted for him instead of Nixon (Kennedy got only 50% of the vote). After 9/11 and Bush's megaphone photo-op at Ground Zero, up to 60% of survey respondents said they'd voted for Bush in 2000. Peoples' "me-too" memories don't impress me. Neither does our very American tendency to racialize far too many public issues.

[indepat]

6. Rice would get 90+% of the black vote here IMHO because the black

vote is always 90+% along racial lines.

[marmar]

17. Umm, here in Michigan...

A black Republican, Bill Lucas, once ran against a white Democrat, James Blanchard, for governor. Guess who got 80+ percent of the black vote. (Hint: It wasn't the black man.)
Frankly, I find your assertion a little offensive and not based in fact.

[win_in_06]

22. Losing even 20% of the black vote would be damaging in a national election

[endarkenment]

33. Only if that were the only variable that changed.

Your analysis simply misses that the group of voters who would decide their vote based on her skin color is not limited to people who would vote for her but also includes people who would vote against her.

Assume that the skin-color-bigot tendency is voter skin-color neutral: i.e. there are proportionally as many bigoted white republican voters as bigoted black democratic voters and 20% of the white republican vote will vote democratic simply because kindofnasy is white. Now re-do your analysis. They won't run her.

[win_in_06]

37. Did you consider that those unwilling to vote for Rice based on skin-color

are unlikely to vote for Hillary either?

I did.

[Sallow]

54. Might be rabbit...might be.

But there is a huge part of the Republican base that would never ever vote for a black woman..

[indepat]

23. Not trying to offend and remarks not intended to be racist: the proof of

my contention lies in the permanent record of election results by precinct as printed in the daily paper. Actually, 98-99% in many precincts has been the norm. Those voters vote like their minister says just as do the voters who vote the way Pat and Jerry say: I think we know who those are.

[endarkenment]

20. uh that is well, for lack of a better term

unsubstantiated bs.

For example the republican party in MA ran a goofball black man for senator a few years back and the black folks of mass voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate. Duh. They aren't stupid they are just black, and unlike their white counterparts they are not confused about what the republican party stands for, which actually makes them, in general, politically smarter than white folks.

Now what is true is that the racist homophobic fundamentalist bigot-base of the republican party will not vote for a woman and will not vote for a black woman. Much to nasty's horror: she is both.

The kindofnasty faux-candidacy, like the guliani faux-candidacy is used to keep the moderate republican leaning swing voters deluded that there is a moderate wing of the republican party so that the thugs can get enough votes to make their cheating-to-win strategy plausible.

[Beetwasher]

8. Except The Racist Fundy GOP Base Would Sit Out The Election

You really think those racist scumbags would vote for a black woman?

Also, Dick Morris must think black people are stupid. How insulting that he thinks they would vote for her just because she was black. That attitude in itself is racist and condescending. What a scumbag.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. so, now we know who hired him. condicane.

miss little goodie two thousand dollar shoes.

[marmar]

11. Puh-leaze....

Clearly Dick Morris hasn't spent a whole lot of time in the black community. As Al Sharpton once said, "It's not a matter of whether you're our color, but whether you're our kind."
The latter doesn't apply to Condi-liar Rice. We learned that lesson with Clarence Thomas.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

36. he is spending thyme with condi, I'll betcha. doesn't count? damn

morris is on TV only because Big Bill got service at the same time that Morris called him. AND morris polled (poled?) the nation about it.

What he is doing for Condi is shilling, plain and simple. Morris is a pig, a deceitful opportunist, a pontificating pundit with no knowledge except that of the poll.
Once Bill started relying on him, he started having policy troubles.

[AspenRose]

42. Thurgood Marshall's quote is apropo here

A black snake can bite as hard as a white one.

[July]

13. STFU, Dick. You're not a kingmaker. (Queenmaker?)

I'm so tired of this crap taking all the oxygen out of political discussion.

[Bucky]

18. Vice President maker. She's got Veep written all over her.

Rice couldn't survive a Republican joust off in 2008. But she is saleable as a VP during the convention.

[WI_DEM]

14. He is a bit optimisitc but she probably could cut into the black vote

and get at least 20-25%. But I don't see her getting the GOP nomination.

[dbonds]

15. Rice running would be a good thing for democrats.

[Bucky]

16. Drop race for a second. Would the Right vote for an unmarried woman?

This is a cute little fantasy of Morris's, but ultimately Rice would come out with a glass jaw. I think she's too brittle to connect with voters. But let's not get mad at Dick Morris and others who are flogging a Rice presidential run. She's probably the first African American woman he's ever met he didn't check his coat to.

[cindyw]

24. doesn't matter. Rice would never get through the primary

[onenote]

25. she'd certainly pick up more african american votes than any white repug

Whether it would be 1/3, who knows? Would depend on who was running against her, positions on specific issues etc.

But would she get a greater share of the African-American vote than any other repug candidate out there? I think that is almost a given.

Look at it this way: how many Jews supported Leiberman for VP even though they wouldn't have supported him if he had the same positions and wasn't Jewish?

The impact of race, religion and ethnicity on voting is well documented. Sure, if the candidate is a complete goof ball, like Keyes, he's not going to make much of a dent in the African American vote. But it would be interesting to know whether Keyes did better with African AMerican voters when he ran against a white democrat than he did running against an African American candidate.

onenote

[win_in_06]

32. Can you imagine how she might campaign if she wanted to court

the black vote?

Inner Cities, Urban League, NAACP Convention, Black Churches...

places the repugs usually avoid.

[paulk]

26. I think that 1/3 is too high

maybe 5 or 10% more than now.

The question is - what part of the bigoted white man Republican vote would she lose? That's the other side of this ...

[onenote]

29. probably

But it was claimed that Kenneth Blackwell, that idiot in Ohio, picked up 50 percent of the African American vote when he ran for reelection in 2002.

onenote

[enid602]

27. whites

But how well will she do among the fundie, white supremicist group in the South. As I recall, the repugnicon party has traditionally catered to this group.

[enid602]

28. whites

But how well will she do among the fundie, white supremicist group in the South. As I recall, the repugnicon party has traditionally catered to this group.

[npincus]

31. he needs to go back to toe-sucking

He knows Republicans NEED Hillary to run because she is such a polarizing figure and their ranks are in such disarray, they desperately need something to unite them. Republicans NEED Hilliary to run because both Clintons are anathema to the Evangelical-Bible-Thumping enormous voting block and Hillary will get them out in droves, to vote against her.

he is a sly little bastard and should shut the fuck up. Dems will decide who is our nominee, not his toe-worshipping self.

[elperromagico]

34. Maybe so, but first she'd have to win the GOP primaries,

and that would be a harder row to hoe.

[Lexingtonian]

35. Stop posting about Dick Morris, please

He's full of shit. He likes provoking dumb Democrats' unrealistic fears. Evidently, he's succeeding. 1/3 of 'the black vote' is 4 million voters.

And he's not telling you how many Republican voters would simply not show up to vote for a black woman. Look around you and the Republicans you know- would even 90% of them show up to vote for Condi?

[win_in_06]

39. If we lost 20% of the black vote and a large share of moderates who

wanted to see a black president elected it would offset the repugs who stayed home.

[Lexingtonian]

40. Find me those moderates

and I'll show you some liberals.

Don't waste your time on this stuff. As it is, it's even doubtful that she's heterosexual.

[win_in_06]

41. So she'd be the first black and the first non-heterosexual?

[nvliberal]

49. Evidence she's lesbian?

I didn't think so.

[win_in_06]

50. I think #40 must have that

[desi826]

46. Jeeeeezzzzzzz!!!

20% of Blacks will NOT vote for Condelezza Rice!!!

Stop it!

They will hold their nose and vote for Hilary first!

She has ZERO clout in the community.

Powell has more and would be a real threat, though not as big as he would have been if he hadn't hooked his wagon to Bush.

But this Rice nonsense has to stop.

She was out buying SHOES while her people were dying in New Orleans
(a very well known fact in the Black Community)for God's sake.

Yeah 20% of blacks are gonna vote for that.

'Cause her skin color is the same as ours.

We. Are. Not. That. Stupid.
Des

[yellowcanine]

38. If Rice gets sucked into Plamegate the whole picture changes.

[cantstandbush]

43. If you want proof of racism in this country just let Condi or Colin

be the candidate for President against ANY Democrat.

[win_in_06]

51. True. Although most here are saying the majority of the votes that

candidate gets would come from whites, not blacks.

[deadparrot]

44. Yeah, let's see the current GOP nominate

an unmarried, black, pro-choice female.

[Clarkie1]

45. Fear of a Condi run is a calculated ploy to promote Hillary. n/t

[mikefromwichita]

47. Dick Morris is a waste of valuable Oxygen

[nvliberal]

48. She won't get much of the black vote; they're too savvy.

But it won't matter; the neocons will make sure the election is rigged if she gets the nomination.

Even if she doesn't run, the neocons will rig it anyway, I fear.

[0007]

52. Harry Belafonte sez it best about this Condi & Colin

Dick Morris is a washed up "has been"

[Totally Committed]

53. Condi Rice is Black?

Only like Colin Powell is. They prove that every race has those willing to collude with their oppressors to the point of becoming oppressors themselves. I doubt 30% of all Blacks are in this category.

And, the White Supremecist Skinhead faction of the Republican "base" will oppose her directly and openly. I'd love to see the RNC Convention if she is to be nominated... manure bombs and "morans" will abound!