Report on your 2005/6 congressional and state races.

[Michigander4Dean]

Michigan:

Governor: Jennifer Granholm has, I'd say, a 75% chance of winning. To her advantage, other than delaying an income tax cut by six months, she has yet to raise any taxes, and her opponent Dick DeVos is a partisan hack who loves Bush (unlike 60% of the state). Plus, almost everyone outside West Michigan - and even me in greater Grand Rapids - hates Amway (excuse me, Alticor).

To her disadvantage, the economy isn't all that good (duh) and DeVos is a billionaire.

If Granholm mentions what I've mentioned about her record vs. DeVos's, she should win easily (barring vote fraud).

Senate: Bush, Rove et al. have bene unsuccessful at recruiting anyone from the US House to run against Debbie Stabenow. Other than rabid RWers, who would support industrial worker Bart Baron or preachers Keith Butler or Jerry Zandstra? Stabenow has a 98% chance of winning (again, barring vote fraud).

House: Not much happening. The Repubs' Dem challengers need to tie them to DeLay for much to happen. I'm waiting for Grand Rapids' CAFTA-supporting Vern Ehlers to quit. Then we might see mayor George Heartwell or State Rep. Mike Sak run.

How's your state?

[mattclearing]

1. DC: We got nuthin.

Will update as developments occur... :D

[nickinSTL]

2. Missouri...and others feel free to give your perspective...

Senate:
Talent vs. McCaskill. Talent is fairly unpopular, and with Blunt's unpopularity , McCaskill should have a good shot. They were tied in a poll a few months ago. However, Missouri has trended Repub in state-wide races lately.

House:
My district (1) is safe for the Dem incumbent. The only realistic challenge would be if he had a strong primary opponent, and I haven't heard anything.
We've also got Roy Blunt.

[AllegroRondo]

5. Is district 1 Carnahan?

His seat is pretty safe, but it was closer than I would have liked last time. Jeff county trends pretty red.

[nickinSTL]

9. no, Carnahan is in District 3

Gephardt's old district.

William Lacy Clay is in the 1st CD.

[DawnneOBTS]

3. I don't want Doug Forrester as my governor n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Well, find a razor for Corzine

He could literally save millions and make this a much simpler race via daily utilization of a 5 cent disposable.

Men with mustaches and facial hair always underperform in statewide or national races. Jimmy the Greek Snyder understood that as far back as '48, when he bet huge on Truman over Dewey, stating the criteria that women wouldn't vote for a man with a mustache, even if subconsciously.

I mentioned that here in 2002 and it held up again. None of the major statewide candidates with mustaches even threatened to match their poll numbers and they all lost -- Strickland in Colorado, Kirk in Texas, plus the GOP gov candidates in Kansas and Wyoming. Many posters from Colorado chimed in and agreed with me, saying there had been talk Strickland would prevail if only he'd get rid of the damn mustache.

[BreweryYardRat]

4. Staring at the horror of horrors...

...here in Florida. Katherine Harris is running against Bill Nelson for his Senate seat. Fortunately, I suspect the election will be enough in Nelson's favor that vote fraud can't swing it for Harris.

[madmom]

6. Ohio here.. Taft at 15% approval......

I'll still say 50-50 cuz hey this is Ohio!!

[lessthanjake]

7. Virginia

Governor: Obviously Kilgore and Kaine. I give Kaine a 40% chance of winning. But itll be close either way.

Senate: Allen will win. If only Warner had run against him.

House: Frank Wolf who i dislike immensely wont lose. Hes been there since 1981.

[FightinNewDem]

10. NH

Governor

Incumbent John Lynch (D) is in very good shape. He did a good job putting together a balanced budget, avoided any major gaffes, and has maintained a decent relationship with the legislature. He's not exciting, but he's certainly competent and honest, which is a refeshing change from his predecesor.

The GOP frontrunner had been Bruce Keough, a millionaire, former state senator and UNH trustee. Keough seems to have been spooked by Lynch's high approval ratings. Several less prominent Republicans are now giving the race a look. State Rep. Jim Coburn (R-Windham) has started making the rounds on the GOP rubber chicken circuit, and may be joined by others soon. Possibilities include State Rep. Fran Wendelboe and Health & Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.

House-1

This is the seat currently held by Republican Jeb Bradley. Three Dems are already running:

State Rep. Peter Sullivan (aka, me)
Rye School Board member Gary Dodds
Pete Duffy, a lawyer from Manchester

Rochester Democratic City Committee chair Carol Shea-Porter is also considering a race.


House-2

This is the seat held by Republican Charlie Bass. Two Democrats have announced their intention to run for the seat:

Paul Hodes, a partner in Bill Shaheen's law firm, former assistant attorney general and the 2004 nominee.

Bret Clemons. Clemons is the brother of party executive director Nick Clemons and the so of party vice chair Jane Clemons. Since the party apparatus is supposed to remain neutral, this is going to get really ugly at some point.

State Rep. John DeJoie is testing the waters. DeJoie is a Concord firefighter with a masters degree in management, so he is a rather interesting guy.

State Senate

The Dems lost several seats by a very narrow margin. A shift of a few thousand votes would have given Dems vicories in districts in south Manchester/Litchfield, Peterborough/Milford, the Lakes Region and rural Merrimack County. Wins in these races would have given Dems control of the senate. Most of these races weren't on the party's radar until the very last minute. By working them early, there is a reasonable shot of taking the senate back in 2006.

[safi0]

11. Wisconsin

Senate: Kohl will win with atleast 60%

Governor: This is where it gets interesting. Our Dem Gov. Doyle is in for what is looking like a very nasty fight. I've had my disagreements with our Governor, but I'll tell you this if he loses were screwed. The WI Republicans have control of both chambers of the legislature and have been passing some crazy shit like the Real ID Act. Gov. Doyle has used his veto pen more than any other Governor in America and he does it to stop crazy bills like that from being passed. If he loses I truly believe Wisconsin will become much more conservative, will become a Red State Presidentially, and it will only be a matter of time before we have 2 Republican Senators and 6 Republican US Reps.

[UrbScotty]

12. Remember: The DeVoses also supported the vOUCHer initiative (nt)