Lost Appeal
How a Victorious Bush Fumbled Plan to Revamp Social Security
A Divided Republican Party, Strong Opposition Derails Push for Private Accounts
Baseball Chat on Air Force One
By JACKIE CALMES
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 20, 2005; Page A1
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According to people on both sides of the battle over Social Security, Mr. Bush overestimated his postelection capital and underestimated his opposition. Embittered Democrats were even more vehemently opposed to any privatization than the White House imagined. And the president's party faced deep divisions of its own. As a candidate, Mr. Bush had never spelled out his Social Security plans, except to suggest that carving out private accounts would solve the program's looming financial woes. When he acknowledged this year that they wouldn't, and that future benefits would need to be reduced, both the public and lawmakers recoiled.
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Nearly a year ago, the president surprised friends and foes by a pronouncement at his first postelection news conference. "We'll start on Social Security now," he said... Mr. Bush's words galvanized the opposition... AFSCME quickly put up $1 million, added $250,000 later, and raised more from other unions. Top political strategists were hired to operate the new Americans United to Protect Social Security in downtown offices and 33 states. Meanwhile, Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the new leader of the Senate Democrats, created a Capitol "war room" unlike any his party had mounted against Mr. Bush. Staffers coordinated with friends at Americans United. Whenever Mr. Bush spoke, Democrats had a response, and wherever he went, protestors were there.
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The day after he officially presented his Social Security proposal in the State of the Union address Feb. 2, the president set off on a two-day trip to begin rallying public support. But his itinerary -- North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Arkansas and Florida -- had an underlying message aimed at another audience: Senate Democrats from "red" states that had backed Mr. Bush for president. Today that kickoff is viewed widely as a big blunder. Instead of privately wooing centrist Democrats whose support he badly needed, Mr. Bush appealed straight to their red-state constituents. That only stoked the enmity left by his 2002 and 2004 campaigning against moderate Democrats who had backed much of his first-term agenda... The president isn't known to have spoken or met privately with any other Democrat, according to many Democrats, congressional Republicans and White House allies. Mr. Hubbard says Mr. Bush did meet one-on-one with other Democratic senators, but he declined to name them.
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Democrats' defeats had left the party in Congress more liberal, and the survivors more united. Liberals opposed any tampering with Social Security; centrist Democrats couldn't abide the massive borrowing needed to start the private accounts. Democratic leaders insisted they were willing to negotiate benefit and tax changes to keep Social Security solvent, if he'd just drop private accounts. Mr. Bush, wedded to his proposal, declined to call their bluff. The White House never expected a lot of Democratic support. It did expect to peel off some moderates' votes, as it had in the first term. Without some Democrats for political cover, Republicans weren't going to provide the difficult votes alone. A bigger problem for the president was his own party. Republicans were hopelessly divided. Mr. Bush led the so-called pain caucus, which favored both private accounts and, to keep Social Security solvent, future benefit reductions. "Free lunch" conservatives wanted larger private accounts, and deeper borrowing to cover the multitrillion-dollar costs for creating them, and they opposed any benefit reductions or payroll-tax increases. Some moderate Republicans opposed private accounts altogether. Then there was the do-nothing camp, which included most House leaders, worried about losing their majority.
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House leaders snatched the idea and planned a fall vote to get the issue behind them. Then Katrina hit, dealing the final blow by its distractions and cleanup bills. A month later, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay was indicted in a fund-raising scandal; the Texas Republican had to forfeit his post to Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt, who strongly opposed taking up Social Security all year. Finally Mr. Bush conceded, for now. "Social Security, for me, is never off," he said at a news conference Oct. 4. But as for "when the appetite to address it is -- that's going to be up to the members of Congress."
Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes@wsj.com
URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112977326560074008.html (subscription)
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