Impeachment in a Nutshell.

[elperromagico]

I've gotten a large portion of this data from http://www.law.cornell.edu/background/impeach/impeach.htm

1. The House Judiciary Committee deliberates over whether to initiate an impeachment inquiry.

2. The Judiciary Committee adopts a resolution seeking authority from the entire House of Representatives to conduct an inquiry. Before voting, the House debates and considers the resolution. Approval requires a majority vote.

At present, the political composition of the House is 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, and 1 independent.
In order for the House Judiciary Committee to begin an impeachment inquiry, at least 218 aye votes must be cast. If every Democrat and Bernie Sanders voted "aye," 15 Republican votes would still be needed.

3. The Judiciary Committee conducts an impeachment inquiry, possibly through public hearings. At the conclusion of the inquiry, articles of impeachment are prepared. They must be approved by a majority of the Committee.

At present, the political composition of the House Judiciary Committee is 21 Republicans and 16 Democrats.

In order for articles of impeachment to be approved by the Committee, at least 19 "aye" votes must be cast. If every Democrat voted "aye," 3 Republican votes would still be needed.

4. The House of Representatives considers and debates the articles of impeachment. A majority vote of the entire House is required to pass each article. Once an article is approved, the President is, technically speaking, "impeached" -- that is subject to trial in the Senate.

In order for those articles of impeachment to be passed, at least 218 aye votes must be cast. If every Democrat and Bernie Sanders voted "aye," 15 Republican votes would still be needed.

5. The Senate holds trial on the articles of impeachment approved by the House. The Senate sits as a jury while the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presides over the trial.

6. At the conclusion of the trial, the Senate votes on whether to remove the President from office. A two-thirds vote by the Members present in the Senate is required for removal.

The present composition of the US Senate is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 independent.

In order to remove a President from office, 67 votes are necessary in the Senate. If every Democrat and Jim Jeffords voted "aye," 22 Republican votes would still be needed.

7. If the President is removed, the Vice-President assumes the Presidency under the chain of succession established by Amendment XXV.

[zauberflote]

1. One thing

"15 Republican votes would still be needed."
There's your problem in a nutshell. Can't see it happening.

[longship]

3. 15 Repub votes can happen in the House

*** The House ***
Two year election cycle. Plus there's over four times more representatives as senators. There's a few moderates, several strict conservatives, and even libertarian or two--all of which who might support impeachment.

*** The Senate ***
Ooops! Six year terms, only a third of them are in campaign mode at any one time. Plus, only 100 of them.

We need 22 for 2/3 vote to remove from office.

Well, we'd better have our shit together. This is possible. Bush is in a free fall now and public opinion is headed for the cellar. After all the crap hits the fan (and don't forget the torture photos which are coming Real Soon Now) we may get close to 2/3 of the Senate. The Senate tends to be less extreme and more deliberative than the House. That works in our favor. Spector could be the one to lead the revolt. If things were very serious, we could find ourselves with the votes to remove.

Don't forget, Delay and Frist could be gone. With the political climate changing it's possible that the Repug Congressional leadership might be in disarray. They might not be able to stop impeachment and removal.

[spindrifter]

2. I could see

some Repugs deciding to abandon ship if the stench is strong enough. At some point they are going to have to regroup and decide whether the damage will be severe enough to affect them back home. We know the stench is going to be pretty strong--but a lot will depend on how the MSM navigates the waters.
Let's all remember that a lot more people are getting disgusted by the large numbers of Americans dying in Iraq with little idea how much longer we will be sending our kids there. Then there is the economy--the unpredictable storms that seem to have global warming written all over them that are costing us big time. There are all of those domestic issues that never seem to get resolved--like health care costs and retirement money. We have the spector of the housing bubble bursting--and no matter whether it ends as a burp or a full blown splat, lots of people are going to get screwed at least in the short term. We can add corporate corruption to our litany. So when it comes to deciding which side of your bread gets the butter, I could see enough Republicans leaving the fold to get impeachment into the old toaster.

[texpatriot2004]

4. Rethugs already distancing from Chumpy and jumping ship too

I think it is quite possible.

[onenote]

5. I doubt we'll ever get past step one

Knowing the makeup of the House Judiciary Committee, I think the chances that the Committee would take the first step (adopting a resolution seeking authority from the entire House of Representatives to conduct an inquiry) is pretty close to zero. I don't see any repbs on the following list that are likely to abandon chimpy (and there is at least one Democrat -- Boucher -- who probably would support the pres).

Hyde (R) Illinois, 6th
Coble (R) North Carolina, 6th
Smith (R) Texas, 21st
Gallegly(R) California, 24th
Goodlatte (R) Virginia, 6th
Chabot (R) Ohio, 1st
Lungren (R) California, 3rd
Jenkins (R) Tennessee, 1st
Cannon (R) Utah, 3rd
Bachus (R) Alabama, 6th
Inglis (R) South Carolina, 4th
Hostettler(R) Indiana, 8th
Green (R) Wisconsin, 8th
Keller (R) Florida, 8th
Issa (R) California, 49th
Flake (R) Arizona, 6th
Pence (R) Indiana, 6th
Forbes (R) Virginia, 4th
King (R) Iowa, 5th
Feeney (R) Florida, 24th
Franks (R) Arizona, 2nd
Gohmert (R) Texas, 1st
Berman (D) California, 28th
Boucher (D) Virginia, 9th
Nadler (D) New York, 8th
Scott (D) Virginia, 3rd
Watt (D) North Carolina, 12th
Lofgren (D) California, 16th
Jackson Lee (D) Texas, 18th
Waters (D) California, 35th
Meehan (D) Massachusetts, 5th
Delahunt (D) Massachusetts, 10th
Wexler (D) Florida, 19th
Weiner (D) New York, 9th
Schiff (D) California, 29th
Sánchez (D) California, 39th
Van Hollen (D) Maryland, 8th
Wasserman Schultz (D) Florida, 20th

[Silverhair]

6. Very good. Like on Dragnet, "Just the facts, Ma'am." NT