What would happen if troops pulled out of Iraq tomorrow?

[elperromagico]

I'd like to get some opinions.

[400Years]

1. The U.S. oil corps would lose their hold on Iraqi reserves

and no more U.S. soldiers would die over there

as far as what happens to the Iraqi people I think that is up to them to determine

edited for bad spelling

[shoelace414]

2. same thing that would happen if we pulled out in 5 years

civil war.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. A lot of things would stay exactly the same

initially. I don't see any big insurgency starting up immediately. I do see that there would be a grappling for power by the neighboring countries. A lot of what would happen to the US would depend upon what the US did diplomatically after we left.

[Cactus44]

4. Unfortunately oil would go to about $120.00/Bbl which would cause

a world wide recession.

As much as I don't like the fact, it's the truth- we CAN'T leave. Were stuck with this fucking quagmire for at least the forseable future.

[tatertop]

11. You are wrong

Too many countries have a vested interest in Iraq.
The situation would stabilize one way or another.
This can be done and must be done.
We gain nothing by prolonging the occupation.

[neoteric lefty]

13. what is your reasoning for that?

As of a few months ago (things may have changed a bit, I do not have that information), Iraq was exporting less oil than it did before the invasion. Iraq makes up only a small percentage of of the woirlds oil production, only makes up about 6-7% of OPEC's total export. Even if all exports stopped out of Iraq, it would only be a minor bump in the road. The only way prices would skyrocket in my opinion, would either be a major breakdown in oil production (for example, a bombing on a major Saudi pipeline) or investor fears of civil war breaking out outside of Iraq (in SA or Iran, for example). To say that prices would double seems to be a little much, but I want to know why you feel the way you do.


PS: Iraq's oil exportas seem to be about 20% down from March-2003 levels:
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/supply.html
Excel File: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11a.xls

[Jacobin]

16. bwaaaahahahaaha

Do you realize that we are exporting HALF of what we were exporting in oil from Iraq now? Before the invasion we got 2 million bbls a day. Now we are lucky to get 1million bbls a day

[RethugAssKicker]

5. The killing would slow down!!!

[Davis_X_Machina]

6. It would be called...

...Operation Homeward Heroes, and everyone shouting 'Stay the course!' would change direction instantly, and praise JuntaBoy for doing what they considered the very apex of cowardice 24 hours previously.

Nimbleness is the primary attribute of an accomplished courtier.

[reality based]

7. Iran and Turkey carve up the country

[Inland]

8. Same troops wouldn't be killed in Iraq. That's all for sure

Everything else is educated guesswork to pure bullshit speculation.

[damntexdem]

9. They'd likely come home.

;-)

OK, Iraq would come apart, suffer civil war, descend into anarchy, destabilize the Middle East, be a launching pad for Al Qaida, and so on. In other words, it wouldn't be a whole lot different than if the troops stay longer.

[Leftest]

10. If the troops pulled out tomorrow

The same thing would happen that happened in Vietnam when the troops pulled out.

[ieoeja]

19. A foreign country would invade and conquer them?

[The Witch]

12. I did a post on this

Got crap replies too...

http://lastmidnight.blogspot.com/2005/09/what-if-tomorrow-us-was-gone-from-iraq.html

I really wanted to know "what would happen in those first 24 hours"? Not generalities. Sigh.

[enigma000]

14. All of them?

> Nations on the United Nations Security Council would demand some form of international aid/training for the Iraqi military and civilian government.

> No one would be interested.

> The Kurds and Shiites would activate their militias

> Islamic fanatics would celebrate demanding Jerusalem be next. Paris sometime after that.

> Several Iraqi Sunni groups demand Iraq be turned over the Sunni rule again as before illegitimate overthrow of government.

> Crude oil prices increase $10/barrel

> Saddam not informed. Does not realize until February.

[goodhue]

15. Less people would die.

eom

[butterfly77]

17. The troops would come home and find out...

how messed up their own country is .They will find out there businesses are lost and jobs and they are homeless and can't get the medical services vets were promised by their commander and thief.

[leftofthedial]

18. same thing that is happening with us there

except it will be over sooner, with fewer Americans dead and less money pillaged from our treasury