AH5N1 Does Not Currently Have Capacity to Cause Pandemic-UK Journal

[callady]

Editorial

Bird flu and pandemic flu
What's the message for GPs and hospital doctors?


The extensive media coverage of avian influenza (bird flu) over recent weeks has caused confusion and increasing concern that bird flu will imminently cause a human pandemic. This has been fuelled by the report of a parrot infected by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza in the United Kingdom this week. Is such a pandemic a flight of fantasy or a dead cert?

The influenza pandemic contingency plan presented by the chief medical officer1 is clear and comprehensive, but at nearly 450 pages, 11 downloadable documents, and many web links, it may not be ready reading for busy health professionals.

<snip>

The lack of sustained human-to-human transmission suggests that this AH5N1 avian virus does not currently have the capacity to cause a human pandemic. But, given the known potential for antigenic shift—either from a gradual process of adaptive genetic mutation within the virus or by a snap gene reassortment with a human influenza A virus6—the virus could acquire the mechanism for rapid human transmission and cause explosive global spread, facilitated by current air travel. Pigs and humans seem to be the "mixing vessels" for genetic exchange when coinfected by both animal and human flu viruses. Close domestic proximity of fowl, pigs, and people facilitates this, a situation common in Asia.

The optimistic alternative to this apocalyptic viewpoint is that the appearance of a modified avian virus capable of triggering a human pandemic is unlikely: there have been more than 3300 flu outbreaks in birds with 150 million killed and only 118 human cases,3 5 and the disease in birds is proving containable with good surveillance and prompt action. Early mass use of neuraminidase antiviral drugs has also been recommended as a containment strategy for any local nascent human pandemic in Asia.7 So a pandemic may occur some time in the future, but not necessarily linked to bird flu.

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/331/7523/975

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Gee? Could this mean that some people are intentionally overstating the

potential for the flu emergency, trying to cause fear and panic, perhaps making some money for vaccine makers in the process, and of course, reinforcing the emotional dependence of the sheeple on "Big Daddy" government and not just allowing it to take away more of our rights in the process, but actually begging it to take away our rights?

[callady]

2. Yes

And look at this story in today's UK Times:

The Times
October 29, 2005

Scientists aim to beat flu with genetically modified chickens
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent


THE long-term threat of an avian flu pandemic could be greatly reduced by a project to produce genetically modified chickens that can resist lethal strains of the virus.

British scientists are genetically engineering chickens to protect them against the H5N1 virus that has devastated poultry farms in the Far East, with a view to replacing stocks with birds that are not susceptible to influenza.

The technique should also offer protection against many other strains of flu with the potential to start a human pandemic, such as the H7 subgroup that was responsible for an outbreak in Dutch poultry in 2003.

<snip>

“Once we have regulatory approval, we believe it will only take between four and five years to breed enough chickens to replace the entire world population,” Professor Tiley said. “Developing flu-resistant chickens has clear benefits for human health and animal welfare, as we wouldn’t have to slaughter chickens around the world. Chickens provide a link between the wild bird population, where avian influenza thrives, and humans, where new pandemic strains can emerge. Removing that bridge will dramatically reduce the risk posed by avian viruses.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25149-1847760,00.html

The calvary in white lab coats coming to save us from the industrial disease. No thanks. Eat local. Know your food.

[BrklynLiberal]

3. Whenever the prospect of this scare being used by the govt to deny us our

rights, is raised, and some of us say we should not panic, people get all in a huff, and accuse us "naysayers" of being stupid to deny the possibility of a "worldwide pandemic". These sheeple say we should all run right out and allow the govt to pass laws to require immediate mandatory vaccinations of everyone.
According to those who call us the ignorant ones, this plague is just around the corner, and those of us who deny it, are doomed, I tell you, DOOMED!!!!!!! and to make matters worse, our denial will take everyone with us.


Just what we need...some MORE bio-engineered food to feed to the human population. It is so sick to think that THAT might not turn out be just as devastating to people as the bird flu could be. The possiblities are endless to anyone with half a brain....Talk about genetic mutations!!!!!

[callady]

4. Absolutely

Creating a new menu of fears for social control.

Also legitimizes more cash for research and/or military funding be the new boogie man the pandemic or the terrorist.