Let's Head Count the Senate on Alito Confirmation

[louis c]

Political Science 101, it's all about the numbers.

First, there are 55 Repukes and 44 Dems, plus Jeffords of Vermont.

Jeffords usually aligns himself with the good guys.

60 votes are needed to filibuster, yet a bare majority (50 plus the VP) can change the rules, preventing a filibuster from blocking a judicial nominee. Here's where I could use some help. Why can't the Senate filibuster the rule change? Then, they would need 60 votes.

Anyway, if 51 votes are needed to defeat the "nuclear option" attempt by the right wing Repukes, where will the extra votes come from?

45 Dems and indy Jeffords. Will we lose any Dems? Will Lieberman stay home? How about the southern Dems? If the party holds, and we have 45 to start, let's see which Repukes will join us against the "nuclear option".

The Senators from Maine, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins

The Two Left-leaning New England Senators, Shayes and Chaffee

That's 49.

Will Arlen Spector join the group? Will Chuck Hagel? How about the unpredictable maverick, John McCain?

What's your guess, can you add or subtract from this list?

Remember, this is a 51 vote requirement to prevent the "Nuclear Option" thereby allowing the minority Dems to block the confirmation of the Right Wing swing vote in the Supreme Court by using the filibuster. This "block", in my opinion, is more important than Bush's removal. After all, Bush will be gone in at least 3 years. Alito may be there the rest of my life (I'm 53).

[louis c]

1. kick

[longship]

2. Well reasoned.

I like Arlen as a prospect. I don't think he likes * very much.

Who else doesn't like * very much? How about McCain?

If I were them and I felt about * how I think they feel, I might consider the future of the Senate to be at least as important as the future of SCOTUS. If they are patriots, they may not side with the Repugs.

I'd like to think with the recent meltdowns, that somebody might stand up and be counted. After all, it's only the future of the republic that hangs in the balance.

[snowbear]

3. Too many things could happen tweenst now and then...

Once Americans get to know who this guy is, they could all be disgusted.. :puke:

I mean.. he's a man who doesn't want families to take leave to be with their child, even when the child is dying of leukemia or the likes.

I'll bet there's tons of other things that will be unearthed about the guy most of us just heard of today.

I say he doesn't make it.. :evilgrin: He sounds like a dirtball to me.

[BlueManDude]

4. Don't count on Snowe or Collins

they'll be on board the alito train in the end. if they were men no one would be calling them moderates.

[blm]

6. And Shays is a congressman not a Senator.

.

[louis c]

7. My mistake, sorry

[depakid]

5. The only way the Dems can filibuster

is if they're willing to reign in the DINO's.

That will require serious discipline and consequences- just like the Republicans do with their members.

Are the Dems finally willing to get smart and have the courage to take on their biggest problem and regain their relevancy.

I wouldn't bet on it- though one can hope they're tired enough of losing to actually do the right thing for a change.

[Silverhair]

8. Don't forget. Some of our senators are from deep red states

and will be pressured by their constituents to support Alito.

Also, we don't have much real ability to hold party discipline. We are not in power, so we have a very limited ability to reward and punish. In fact, the Repubs DO have that ability.

Repub leader to Democratic Senator: "If you help us out by not supporting the filibuster, we may be able to fit that bridge that you have been wanting into the budget."

We don't have the ability to do that.

[Idioteque]

9. The nuclear option can't be filibustered...

...because it's not actually a rule change. The Senate rules say that the rules can only be changed with a 2/3 vote. That's seven more than needed to break a filibuster. The Nuclear Option, howeever, circumvents the rules of the Senate.

With the Nuclear Option, the presiding officer rules, against the will of the parliamentarian, that filibusters on nominations are unconstitutional. This ruling can be appealed but no debate time is in order, making a filibuster impossible.

The danger is that it sets a precedent of letting the Senate do anything with a simple majority. It is breaking the rules to change the rules.

[Zynx]

10. Um Shayes is not in the Senate.

The way I see it, we have 44 since Nelson will probably desert us. We could get two from Maine, that's 46. We could get Chaffee and that's 47. We could get Specter and that's 48. The only ones after that I can think of are DeWine(possibly) and maybe McCain and Hagel.

[Walt Starr]

11. All that's necessary is 40

Force them to go nuclear. Let them set the standard forevermore.

If you don't filibuster Alito, then you've allowed the Republicans to go nuclear without firing a shot. And when the tables are turned some day, the Dems would have to go nuclear and look like hypocrites.

Force them to do it. Anything short of that is rolling over.

[louis c]

12. I Agree