Does anyone from a southern state believe Kerry

[southern democrat]

can win their state? I'm from TN and I don't believe Kerry stands a chance here.I believe he would lose to shrub by at least 15-20 points.I am increasingly worried about him getting the nominatination.Clark or Edwards would both be longshots but either could pull off an upset.I just don't see that with Kerry.What about your state?

[Nay]

1. If VA ever went Dem in a Prez election,

I'd fall over dead. I don't think any Dem has a chance here.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. In 2000, Va voted 52% Bush to 45% Gore!

If we campaigned there and got voter turn-out up by 3-4 points then we could take it.

[underpants]

9. Thank you

Please see my post below.

[dolstein]

13. Not with Kerry at the top of the ticket

Edwards, from neighboring North Carolina, might be willing to make such an investment. But Kerry would write off Virginia from the start. Just as important, politicians like Mark Warner would be more likely to put their on reputations on the line campaigning for a fellow Southernor like Edwards.

[Meldread]

25. Exactly.

But if Kerry win's it ain't gonna happen.

Frankly even if Dean wins the only thing that would get him here would be his NRA support and the fact that he has balanced a budget. That is, of course, if Bush doesn't run him into the ground for supporting Civil Unions. That could go either way really.

I would put Dean, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman at a 50/50 chance here. Kerry no way. He'll be lucky if he gets 35%.

[underpants]

7. Do the names Mark Warner or Tim Kaine ring a bell?

Kerrey can win Va. in the same way they did. Go to the border of NC, pay attention to the Republic of Richmond, get Cramwell on your side in Roanoke, pay attention to NOVA, strike in the valley, and don't be afraid to tell Hampton Roads what you stand for and what W doesn't do for them..............Va. is an open field.

[dolstein]

15. Warner and Kaine are from Virginia, Kerry is not

Just because Virginia Democrats like Warner and Kaine can get elected in Virginia doesn't mean a Massachusetts Democrat like Kerry can.

[Meldread]

I'm in VA too.

Kerry doesn't have a snow cones chance in hell.

Dean, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman might. Dean because he's proven to balance budgets. VA isn't anti-Democratic. We have a Democratic Governor. Clark more so than Edwards because of Clarks military background. Edwards because he is a southerner, and Lieberman because he's more conservative.

Kerry? No way.

I'd probably rank it like this:
Clark
Dean (NRA Support helps a lot here)
Lieberman
Edwards

If you look really closely we do have a sizable number of Democrats within VA they are just more conservative.

[spooky3]

65. It will be easier to campaign in VA than in many other states

if the nominee is a current DC resident, simply because it is nearby. That may help any Dem. since the "personal touch" can offset a lot of other things.

[Eurobabe]

84. Uh yeah

Clark all the way in Virginia. Top democrats here in central VA who saw Kerry all last fall said he is anemic.

[Leilani]

74. But you were able to elect a Dem Governor

I think with the right candidate it would be in play.

[forgethell]

2. Alabama here, Kerry

doesn't have a chance. but then neither does any other Democratic presidential candidate in this state. It is firmly red territory. the only point in voting here is to keep the popular vote nationwide on the right side.

[southern democrat]

6. A Clark/Edwards or Edwards/Clark ticket makes Ark,N.C.and La

Very very winnable.It also at least gives us a shot at Tn,Ga and Ky.

[fujiyama]

31. Forget Georgia...

I agree to some extent that with Clark and Edwards there would be some chance at Ark, NC, and La, though I don't think any would be easy in any way.

I'm more skeptical of Kentucky and Tennessee. I personally don't think Gore could have even won Tennessee for the simple fact that they like Bush in those places...

And why the hell are people talkin Va? No one has a chance in Va, as well as Alabama and MIssissippi.

[krkaufman]

66. That's the ticket I've been hoping for n/t

[Leilani]

75. Don't forget W. Virginia

they would love Clark/Edwards or Edwards/Clark.

[juajen]

80. Man, talk about a pretty ticket

The women would flock to that ticket and men would also love the General. Sounds good to me.

[Devlzown]

17. Same here in Mississippi.

No Dem stands a chance in hell. I'll be contributing to the national popular vote as well.

[phylla]

4. In Virginia

not a chance.
The only Democratic candidate that could do it is Wes Clark. There are PLENTY of irritated moderate Repubs. and military who will cross over for Clark but no one else. I know a lot of those people. This is a fact that you can take to the bank.

[underpants]

12. Even "golden boy" Allen only got 52-3%

I have to call EEEEEEEEEEEK on that. But WELCOME TO DU :hi:

Richmond here (grew up in Hampton Roads-inlaws in Roanoke)

[dolstein]

43. But he got that against Chuck Robb

Even with his sex scandal, Chuck Robb was one of the strongest candidates the Democrats could have hoped for. Unless Mark Warner runs against him, Allen will get reelected in a landslide.

[arewethereyet]

29. I'm Virginian, Kerry, Dean, Clark-no Edwards-maybe

NC, SC, GA, AL and Miss are more likely

Kerry and Dean are more like hell no. Clark is too much of a flake but Edwards can inspire and is much like the Dems who do well here.

[krkaufman]

67. Based on what?

> Clark is too much of a flake

Enough of the inflammatory opinion. Clark's demonstrably the most stable candidate out there, with the exception, perhaps, of Edwards.

[elsiesummers]

78. VA

Not only Robb but Balliles and Davis won Governor in VA before Warner.

I agree that Edwards could probably win VA if he's at the top of the ticket.

Clark - I DON'T think he's a flake - wrong. But, he would have to win on the military persona, and I'm concerned he might not do quite as well with African Americans. His accent is not quite VA so he won't play in terms of regional flavor.

Kerry, or any NE might be able to pull a surprise with the right VP pick - an African American could push up turn out. Think of what Davis did - becoming governor.

Maybe this would be too risky a plan though.

[Eurobabe]

85. Clark has 5 offices in Virginia

We have been working our asses of since September. We were the first to get the General on the ballot through petition efforts.

Clark has good support in VA. No other candidate has offices in central and southern, or Tidewater areas.

[lastknowngood]

5. He can't win any southern state

I'm from Arkansas and I can tell you now he can't win any southern state or western state. I figure California is gone as the gropenator will appoint a Katherine Harris clone to purge the democratic rolls just before the election. I figure he will get New York and Mass. Thats it a true 48 state loser which will give the shrub a massive influx of new repugnants in the house and senate.
I figure a 2/3 majority in the senate and 25 to 35 seats in the house. My country is done.

[Dagaz]

16. No way

2/3 Senate is 66 seats. I see a pick-up to maybe 56 but no way do they see 60. CA might be in play but right now it's not, even with Arnold. Kerry gets Wash, NY, MA, VT, ME, RI, CT, MD, DC, IL, HI for sure and there are still a lot in play. I'm not going to try and pick those this early but I don't see enough right now to win without a few southern states. At least get Arkansas and go from there.

[onehandle]

None of the candidates can take Georgia...

Rove and Ralph Reed have set up shop and it's over for the party for a while.

Clark and Kerry are my top choices.

Clark would have the best chance, but I doubt he could do it.

However, I am confident that either of them could win the election.

[kentuck]

18. Georgia has a lot of military....

I'm not so sure a Democrat could not be competitive. There was a Democratic governor not that long ago.

[Tatiana]

59. Yeah.

I think his name was Zell Miller :(

(Actually, as Governor, he behaved pretty much like a Democrat. Focused on education, early childhood initiatives, poverty, and housing programs. I dunno WTF happened to him.)

[krkaufman]

68. Zell Miller

> ... Zell Miller ... I dunno WTF happened to him.

Too many fellow senators saying they didn't care about the South?

[asjr]

8. TN also

Clark or Edwards would garner the most support, I am with you on that. Kerry is really a question mark. I have my entire family on the Dean bandwagon but I don't think he would do well either. There is also an obstinate bunch of Tennesseans who will vote Shrub because "he is a man of faith." It makes me wonder how one of those can see our country being ruined by this unelected "faith by politics" man, someone who led us into war on lies, and still vote for him.

[southern democrat]

11. Which part of Tn are you from?East ,middle or west

[frustrated_lefty]

10. Louisiana here.

LA is a swing state. Kerry doesn't stand a chance here. Good thing he doesn't care.

[ronzo]

23. Kerry would have a shot at Louisiana.

I really think so. If Mary Landrieu and Gov. Blanco play it right, they can deliver Louisiana. Just my humble opinion.

[fujiyama]

33. Kerry, Edwards and Clark have one plus...

that Dean doesn't have - establishment support (I know this is both good and bad), but I could see Breaux, Landreui and others campaigning for those three, but it's very unlikely they would for Dean. Breaux already started airing his reservations or whatever about Dean because he's the 'angry candidate'. I can't stand Breaux and most other conservative southern dems, but I do think it's important to have their support when campaigning in what would be an uphill race. Especially in a place like La, where Breaux is a very popular politician, such support could definetely help.

Granted, Dean's record is actually more moderate than any of those candidates, especially on guns, but unfortunately Breaux and other DLC dems have made their mind up that Dean is 'too liberal'.

[markus]

36. I don't believe JB think's Dean's too liberal

He's too anti-establishment, and is running against the corporate-funded centrism that Breaux worked hard to build up. That's not surprising in the least.

[markus]

34. Hell, I still think Dukkakis could have one LA with decent turnout

but the DNC and campaign wrote us off. All we asked for was $50,000 for last week GOTV activites. The turnout was 150,000 less than in '92 (when Clinton had the plurality with Perot in the race). But we were written off, and much of the party establishment was running away from us.

The Dems lose the south at least in part because they choose to.

[frustrated_lefty]

38. You may be right....

I have family in rural Louisiana (Monroe and Calhoun), and they react very negatively to Kerry's name. That's a "family" poll, and has little merit. Between family and co-workers, the impression I'm getting is he doesn't have a chance. A $150 haircut is SO poorly received among the people I know, who are (granted) mostly republican.

[dae]

53. I think Clark plays strongest followed by Edwards, Kerry, and possibly

Dean. I use to farm, you know, ever the optimist.

[Leilani]

77. John Breaux said Clark or Lieberman

could win Louisiana.

[frustrated_lefty]

81. Clark could play well here.

So could Edwards, and, I think, Dean. Kerry doesn't fit into this, and he doesn't care to try to do so.

[democratreformed]

14. Okay, here goes

I wasn't going to answer this because I know that the "correct" answer you are looking for is NO. BUT, my answer is that it all depends on several things.
1. If Kerry is the nominee and he has a message that resonates with Southern issues, it will give us something to work with.
2. If he pays attention to the South and does not give the impression of writing it off like some have suggested, that will be good.
3. If those of us who intend to work for the Democratic nominee work hard enough to help get that message out and show our friends and neighbors how electing a Democrat will be to their advantage, then, yes he CAN win.

That's my honest opinion.

On edit, I'm from Arkansas and I disagree with that poster up there only b/c I intend to do everything in my power to get the message across that we NEED a Democrat. I intend to work very very hard to take back the South for the Democrats (have already started actually). I don't even know how to articulate how hard I am willing to work on this.

[southern democrat]

19. You are an optimist.If Kerry gets the nomination,I hope and pray

you are correct.But I personally feel this is a very very risky gamble to get the white house back in democratic controll.

[democratreformed]

26. At this point in time, I have to be

Otherwise, I just couldn't take it. I understand what you are saying. I certainly agree that there is a nominee (wonder who - lol) who would have an easier time in the South. I agree that Kerry is a bigger risk down here. But, whoever it is, I will work for them. To me, I think, the message is key. If our nominee tries to work with a message that doesn't play well down here, it might be nearly impossible but I will still try. I have to.

Everywhere I look, I see friends, family, and neighbors who are having a really hard time in this economy. We simply MUST do our best to get our country back on the right track so that all Americans can have a better life. I believe we can only do that with a Democrat.

[sandnsea]

32. Thank you

What really gets me is all these people from the south writing off their own states and Democratic values all at the same time. First and foremost, if states aren't voting democratic, it's the democrats in the state who are at fault. One of the reasons I support Kerry is he and his team knows what it is to get in the trenches and fight, which is what he's been trying to get Democrats to do ever since he told us to quit crying in our teacups. But I guess all the teacups aren't full yet. I don't know how many more elections we'll have to lose before we get it.

[southern democrat]

35. A yankee coming down south telling the hardnosed democrats

that remain in the south it's their fault that democrats can't win in the south.That's going to go over real big.That would be shrubs wet dream.

[democratreformed]

42. Yes, a positive and uplifting message would be much better

Something like - We recognize that the Republicans have been very successful in taking over the South using culture issues to divide the voters. We know that we can be successful in showing voters why these issues aren't the most important ones. With your help, the help of Democrats who have remained strong and true for many years, we can get the message out that Democratic values are the the ones that REALLY make their lives better.

As I said in another thread, I am already working on this. It all started in my local Democratic club. We decided to study and report on the history and legacy of the Democratic party. Luck me. I got the first assignment - FDR. It has been truly fascinating.

From there, somehow, my assignment grew into writing a column for my county's paper on the history and legacy of the Democratic party. This is very exciting to me. The president of our club has already spoken to the editor and, together, they agreed that it would be a good idea and that he would run the column. I truly believe that when many of our county's citizens learn what the Democratic party has done for Americans over the years, this could have a big impact on them. By that, I mean some of those voters who were yanked from our party by the non-issues that Republicans brought to the forefront and have used against us for so many years.

[Name removed]

50. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[democratreformed]

52. But can we count on the help and support

of our northern brothers and sisters while we are fighting? I hope so.

[sandnsea]

62. You don't want the yankees

What the hell are we supposed to do?

[democratreformed]

87. Well, I guess what I meant was

to be encouraging and give advice when and if you can. I'd say encouragement would be the most important thing to me.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

55. Thank You.

I don't think of what state a candidate is from when I vote. Can someone explain to me this prejudice against the North in this day and age? I don't understand, since most of the Dems from the South are over the Civil War. Are we trying to appeal to a demographic that would normally vote Republican?

[juajen]

82. Gee, what a beautiful attitude

That's sure to garner support for your man down south. Come on down, ya'll hear?

[krkaufman]

69. State's right

> if states aren't voting democratic, it's the
> democrats in the state who are at fault.

Hmmm... So, I could be a Presidential nominee, and, on television, lay a US flag on the ground and urinate on it. And if someone doesn't vote for me, it's *their* fault.

I think that a candidate *does* have some effect on how a state perceives him/her, and a strong candidate that appeals to (or doesn't turn off) large portions of a state's population can help those running for other offices, as well. To a lesser degree, an unfavorable Presidential candidate can have a deleterious on those running for Congress.

It's a ridulous example, I know; but I wanted to conserve clicks.

[sandnsea]

73. Oh please

It's been going on ever since the Civil Rights Act and LBJ said at the time he'd probably lost the south for the Democrats for decades. We're talking Senators, Congressmen, all kinds of offices. The south doesn't vote Democratic and that's the south's problem. I'm tired of taking the blame for whatever it is that's "unique" to the south. If you want Democrats in office, fix it.

[girl gone mad]

20. Texas here.

Dean has more popular support in my state than Kerry, if that tells you anything.

I think Clark or Edwards would have a good chance in LA and AR, but not Kerry. Too bad Kerry and his supporters just want to give up on the south, when this election could represent one of the best chances in recent memory to make some inroads. Sharpton and Edwards were right in the debate - Southerners are not happy with Bush. Here's a chance for us to turn things around for the Democrttic party in the South. Saying that the South isn't important is a mistake on so many levels.

[fujiyama]

39. Dean's level of support...

for the democratic primary in TX makes no difference. No democrat will win Texas anyways, or most southern states.

I wouldn't write off the entire south, but I wouldn't waste my resources in states that have no chance.

[krkaufman]

71. Hear, hear!

> this election could represent one of the best chances
> in recent memory to make some inroads. ... Here's a chance
> for us to turn things around for the Democrttic party in
> the South.

From my signature:

"We'll even bring in people who voted for Reagan, and even Richard Nixon, and we're not even going to ask them to repent." -- Gen. Clark

[blm]

21. I do. I even believe he'll win SC.

.

[southern democrat]

28. Are you from S.C. and you are saying Kerry would beat shrub

If so he should not have any problem with Edwards next week in the primary.If both of these events come to pass I'll admitt you have convinced me.

[blm]

54. I'm in SC.

Many vets here who supported Bush in 2000 now say Bush lied to them and want to work against him and FOR Kerry.

[oasis]

58. Fritz Hollings will be a tremendous help.

[SCantiGOP]

88. SC poll results

I had posted this yesterday:

Poll Results for Wednesday January 28, 2004
John Edwards 26%
John Kerry 16%
Wesley Clark 8%
Al Sharpton 7%
Howard Dean 5%
Joe Lieberman 4%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 33%

I am still undecided between Edwards and Kerry, but anyone who saw the debate last night knows that Sharpton makes the most sense.

[bringiton]

22. No democrat has a chance in TX

No democratic candidate would do very well in Texas.
With the exception of Austin, not too many thinkers in this state. We just seem to like billy bad asses who tell people "your either with us or against us","bring em on", "God Bless America" and cherish the word Nuculer. I do believe Clark or Edwards has the best shot at Arkansas, North Carolina, and possibly Louisiana. I'm still voting.


P.S. - Tom Delay is Satan.

[SangamonTaylor]

40. the right kind of populist message would resonate well in TX...

just like it did with Anne Richards.

TX has the 2nd highest population of African-American and Latino voters. TX has a growing progressive area in Austin.

It's completely a snowball's chance in hell, but what-the-hooey, I'm ready to get out the Democratic vote in Texas.

[dolstein]

44. No Democrat is going to be dumb enough to waste their

money on Texas. Ok, perhaps maybe Howard Dean.

[anti-bush]

56. Here in Austin

We are definitely liberal, but the new redistricting map has carved Austin to shreds. Lloyd Doggett now has to run in District 25 (which is a mile wide, and a hundred miles long) and is basically now The Valley.

We could have a shot in Texas, but Bush claiming he's a Texan is too much to overcome this election.

[katusha]

60. don't be so sure

get outside of austin and into the hinterlands and you will find a quiet anger towards bush. texans will never openly say anything against bush as it would not be proper but get them in the polling place and that quiet anger taken together with the fact that perry is the most unpopular governor in my lifetime and you may have the makings of a surprise. mostly texans are quietly embarrassed by bush.

[anti-bush]

61. Maybe

You may be right. We'll see what happens in November. I'll be at the voting booth either way.

Oh, and welcome to DU!

[mmonk]

24. Can't say yet.

My gut is no. But veteran support (heavy in NC) could help him spring an upset.

[DancingBear]

27. The real question is coattails

I'm in northern VA, and I don't think Kerry can win here. Even with a Dem governor, the northeast liberal stigma will be too much to overcome.

I am very concerned about the Senate seats (5?) that are up for grabs in the south. I don't see any way that Kerry provides any type of coattail that will allow these seats to go Dem. That will be a crushing blow, as it will make the Senate immune to a filibuster.

Hope I'm wrong.

[LostInTheMaise]

30. Kerry is toast below the MA border

Best to lean to a more honest leader. Kerry and his fake platitudes are getting on many nerves. We'll see it next Tuesday.

[oasis]

70. You acknowledge Kerry for being a leader. That's a start.

[TexasPatriot]

37. Well being from Texas

there's really not any point is there.

[corporatewhore]

41. Texas.No way

[David Dunham]

45. But Edwards Couldn't Even Defeat Bush in NC, Poll Show

[floridaguy]

46. It's more likely to snow in SW Florida then for to Kerry win here (n/t)

[Gadave]

47. I'm from Georgia

I don't think he stands a chance here (GA), but few democrats do since we are not in play. A better question is to ask is "Will Kerry affect the down ticket candidtates?" To that, probably Dean or Kerry would be the same in that Southerners are not likely to vote for a New Englandite. Clark would probably not help, not hurt. But that is not the reason why I vote in primaries.

[Gadave]

48. I forgot one

Edwards would probably help and may even make the State close.

[southerngirlwriter]

49. ONLY if he put Edwards on as VP

and had Edwards down here campaigning his ass off.

[bigtree]

51. Gore-Bush

Tennesee: Bush won :shrug:

[AnnitaR]

57. I'm from East TN

I don't think Kerry has a chance anywhere in this state against Bush. A seemingly ultra liberal New Englander will not play here in the General Election.

I think Clark would have a better chance at pulling the Independent votes here, older vets, and the more moderate Pubs who I have spoked to and say that Clark is the only one they would even consider. Edwards has the southern roots thing but they all see him as not having enough experience. Clark's military leadership is a big selling point here. They don't see him as just another liberal Washington Democrat.

Clark has been running ads here for a long time. He's been very smart in the times his ads are running. They are always on just after the local news and just after the national news. Very smart buys here in Knoxville.

I must say here in East TN Clark would probably have a tougher time than out in Middle or West TN. My part of the state is very much Southern Baptist and they are the ones who'll vote for Shrub because they are sheep and believe he's "a man of God".

Also, you gotta remember the Frist Factor. People in my part of the state love him. So, he will be playing a big role here for Shrub.

However, we were able to elect a Democrat for Governor! Phil Bredesen and so far most people in this state think he's doing a real good job, so I have faith.

Trust me I'm still sickened by the fact that if my state would have went for Gore, the Chimpy years would have never happened.

[freetempe]

63. Kerry's already written off the South...

yet some of us think he is the most "electable". You're not electable if you can't even, or worse yet, are afraid to, compete in the South.

[NNN0LHI]

64. Umm. How many southern states did Gore win? And he still won the election

[krkaufman]

72. Tiebreaker?

So, you wanna send another tiebreaker election to the Supreme Court for resolution?

[NNN0LHI]

86. No. I expect the Dem nominee to win outright the northern states that...

...Gore lost last time. That is what I expect to happen in November.

Don

[Leilani]

79. And the electoral votes have changed

since 2000. That's why we need to pick up a couple of states.

[juajen]

76. I don't think Kerry would play well in Louisiana

I think the General will win here; neighboring states ya know. I'm also thinking he will end up with the nomination. I could be wrong and I will gladly support any dem, except for Holy Joe. I still haven't gotten over his sanctimonious Clinton rhetoric during the Blue Dress scandel, let along his republican-lite ways.

[Kipepeo]

83. I'm from SC originally

moved in the past few years.

I don't think there is any chance of a democrat winning SC this year, but I do think the Democratic Party will be stronger there after this election...a lot stronger than it's been in a while, and that's something to build on.

My dad says the Democrats (he's Republican) finally seem "proud of themselves," which I guess means they are no longer hiding out. :)

Honestly, I don't think being 'from the south' is going to help any candidate beat Bush in SC in the general election. I think it will help them win in the SC primary, but I don't think it will help in the general election. Why? Because if you're counting on someone to vote for you because you sound like a good ole boy, why would you think that person wouldn't vote for the good ole boy personified as Dubya? In other words, I think the people you are hoping to win over w/ your southern charm (who find that a valid reason to vote for someone) are going to be voting for the OG of southern charm: Dubya.

In SC the primary is open to any registered voter. So there will be a lot of Republicans participating in the primary. But they will, for the most part, vote Dubya in the general election. I think the people we need to focus on appealing to are not those Republicans, but the many people who do not vote in the south.

I know people will think I am biased, but I would not be supporting Dean if I did not think he could do well against Bush (and better than the other candidates) in my home state in the general election. I think he appeals to the disenfranchised, to those who don't vote, and I like that he talks about the Republicans' use of the Southern Strategy. I think we need more people calling attention to that in general, no matter who it is. I think the big message to push in the south (instead of trying to 'hide' issues like gay rights or abortion or affirmative action and hope we can look enough like a repub. that they'll vote for us) is that YES we stand for equal rights for all, and if your fears and prejudices are more important to you than your economic dreams, then go ahead and vote for Bush. But if it means more to you that you have health insurance, and that your property taxes don't go up, and that your kids be able to afford college, then vote Democrat.

[Corgigal]

89. SC also here

I have not seen one Kerry sign, bumper sticker , headquarters or received one damn phone call from these people. I have seen and been contacted by Clark's people (I'm a veteran but I back Dean) and I have seen Edwards and Dean signs.
I know of no Dem's that are voting Kerry but I do know a lot that are voting Clark and Dean. I have no idea why Kerry is projected to win this state nor do I see any evidence of it.

[Hep]

90. Kerry won't even be on the ballot in my state

too bad, not.

[Stuckinthebush]

91. I didn't think he had a chance until I spoke with my father-in-law

See this thread for more info:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=231878