A Kerry ticket leaves no margin for error in the general election

[scheming daemons]

John Kerry cannot win a single southern state with the exception of possibly Florida.

That would be enough to win, assuming he got all the other states that Gore won.

But it leaves absolutely no margin for error.


There is no state that John Kerry would win that John Edwards wouldn't also win... but the opposite is not true.

Edwards would win all the states that Kerry would win... and possibly TN, FL, NC, VA, LA, and MO.

Think about it... what state would Kerry win that Edwards WOULDN'T?

If you are honest with yourself, the answer is none.

Kerry can win, but he leaves us no margin for error. A Kerry win would be somewhere in the 270 to 290 electoral vote range. Edwards could win up to 330-340 electoral votes.

If you Kerry people were REALLY as pragmatic as advertised, you'd be Edwards supporters.

(and no crap about a Kerry/Edwards ticket. NOBODY votes based on the VP candidate.)

[sallyseven]

1. They did for John Kennedy.

LBJ helped him win in Texas as well as some other states. Is the south so prejudice that they would vote against there best interest? It may have been the case before the trillion dollar deficit but now?

[girl gone mad]

2. You can't compare..

now to then. Times have changed, the DSouth was still relatively Democratic back then.

[dolstein]

6. Sorry, but the JFK analogy doesn't work

For one thing, the 1960 election was a contest between a relatively conservative Democratic ticket (neither JFK nor LBJ were from the party's liberal wing) and a relativel liberal ticket (Nixon agreed to most of Nelson Rockefeller's platform demands -- including on civil rights -- and he picked a liberal Republican as his running mate). The fact is, even if Southern Democrats (and the South was still OVERWHELMINGLY Democratic at the time) were suspicious of JFK, they weren't any happer with Nixon. Don't forget, the Eisenhower administration sided with the plaintiffs in the Brown v. Board of Ed litigation and IKE sent the troops into Little Rock to integrate the schools. So given the choice between a moderately pro-civil rights Democrat and a moderately pro-civil rights Republican, Southern voters were going to go with the Democrat.

[kodi]

12. that was 1960 and even racists voted democrat in the south then

in 1960, the entire south was one big bastion of the democratic party. look it up.

[HalfManHalfBiscuit]

3. Kerry/Edwards or Kerry/Graham is the answer

Of course the VP matters.

If he is personable and dynamic. And southern.

BTW, Edwards is the only candidate I have given money to so far. I would welcome an Edwards/anybody ticket.

[ochazuke]

19. Edwards/Graham

Hey KKKarl, how ya gonna win without Florida and North Carolina? And West Virginia.

[jfxgillis]

4. That's quite all right

Kerry had no margin of error against Weld in '96, either.

Kerry's battle-tested in more ways than one.

[pacifictiger]

5. Used to be

democrats ruled the south, republicans ruled the north. (i.e. southern segregationist, holy roller white business vs. northern labor & quaker free thinkers) Seems the party platform base has totally switched, so why is everyone so worried about the south still? The whole demographics of the country has changed in 30 years, as have the fickle politicians that pander for votes. Look at how many have changed parties almost as much as they have changed their underwear! It is the now the republicans that want to keep this civil war going!!! I don't buy it.

[dolstein]

7. Sorry, but defeating a liberal Republican in Massachusetts

isn't quite the same thing as beating George Bush in the South.

[jfxgillis]

9. You miss your own point?

Kerry has no margin for error if he loses the South. That was your point, right?

So the question is, can he beat Bush OUTSIDE the South by a large enough margin to offset the South?

The answer to that is yes.

[ochazuke]

21. Or not

Missouri, Kentucky, and West Virginia are not southern states, but a Democrat can't win without one of them.

By the way, analaysing this race using the Gore states as a base is bogus. Gore was the incumbant administration, he had the wind at his back, but lost because Middle Americans didn't like him rolling his eyes or whatever.

[WilliamPitt]

13. Weld ran one of the best campaigns ever seen in Massachusetts

Liberal Republicans have been in the Governors office in Massachusetts for years now. They win around here. Weld and Kerry ran an extraordinary and tough campaign; both had approval ratings above 60% when the race was over.

[sandnsea]

8. Isn't this a dupe?

Didn't we already have this post. Could have sworn. :shrug:

[John_H]

10. I agree with the Kerry bit 100 percent but Edwards

could easily fall victim to the fear factor strategy Rove will certainly use--and lose a lot of states Kerry will win plus most of the South.

So why not just nominate Clark and solve both problems. Hey, makes perfect sense to me...

[WilliamPitt]

11. Regardless of the candidate

there will be no margin of error. No one is beyond the GOP's guns of August, September, October and November. They will fire at will against any of them, and any of them have soft spots in the defenses.

Kerry is no different from Kucinich in this regard. We're all in for the same barrage no matter who gets picked.

[w4rma]

14. I agree, WilliamPitt. (n/t)

[IndianaGreen]

15. It is hard for any Democrat to win without Ohio

If Cheney were to drop out for "health" reasons and Bush were to pick someone like Rudy Giuliani as his running mate, New York may just go into the GOP column. Arnold in California will also make that state very competitive, forcing someone like Kerry to spend resources there that he could use elsewhere.

[lcordero]

17. Giuliani is despised here

Think about what happened to Donna Hanover.
Also think about the racial tensions when he was here.

[Skwmom]

16. Tucker Carlson was cheer leading for Edwards

who has ZERO credibility on national security and has taken his 2 Americas theme from a book (I'm not saying that is wrong to do but the Republicans will paint him as a trial lawyer playing to the jury/the American public).

Our country is in a crisis domestically in abroad. Sorry but Edwards is too much of a lightweight to handle this crisis.

[lcordero]

18. Jebby locked in Florida pretty good

No Democrat will ever win Florida for the next 20 years, not even Graham.

[FrenchieCat]

20. VPs are figure heads....

they do not get votes....that why Gore still got the most votes....Lieberman made not difference.


Same for Dukakis and Bentsen.........Didn't help one bit in the south!

This is all that needs to happen to get rid of Bush...but the RNC and their mediawhores won't let it happen....although I will fight!

[Awsi Dooger]

22. scheming daemons, you're an extremely astute newcomer

In fact, I would like to claim this thread as my own. I've certainly emphasized your themes often enough in various responses, especially the necessity for Edwards atop the ticket and the incredibly absurd emphasis on the VP slot.

Yeah, everyone is handicapping the Super Bowl based on backup quarterbacks.

DUers as a whole are blinded by issues and substance, and laughably ignorant at how vital style/likeability and therefore Teflon has become. None of the top tier candidates would have made it to this point without being remarkably qualified. Personalities, looks and speaking styles could not be more varied, and that's what the critical swing and independent voters focus on, post-convention, every four years.

A southerner is allowed full scrutiny everywhere, but someone like Kerry -- as you imply -- will be instantly rejected in the South during the GE, regardless of how he fares in the southern primaries.

Kerry's apologists seem to think vets make up about 50% of the electorate and he'll swipe a huge chunk from Bush. Talk about not letting reality hit hit you in the ass on the way out...

[dusty64]

23. I think your take on

Edward's ability and electability is overrated. There is NO evidence to indicate he could even carry his home state and many polls showed him possibly losing his Senate seat there if he had run again. If it has to be Kerry, I hope he picks Clark or Graham as his running mate. This time, I really think it will matter.

[Lexingtonian]

24. No sale

The Republicans have been playing Br'er Rabbit with Edwards. The idea is to slow or stymie Kerry- he certainly got zero respect from them before. At this point he's their only hope to stay competitive to Kerry until Super Tuesday- all Northern states, which will end it for Edwards- at which point they'll take over sliming Kerry.

If you've been watching the Bush '04 effort at all, the story is that they're doing everything they can to get any and all conservative Christian voters to the polling booth on Election Day. The reactionaries of the South are putting up the Old South's last stand. It's going to be an unprecedented GOP GOTV effort.

That is why Edwards, interestingly enough, probably bailed on running for the NC seat in the Senate again in the first place. True, there is a Democratic trend in the region of close to 1% per year. But there are still enough Republican leaners who didn't show up for the last couple of elections there, and the GOP is going all out to get them properly registered, reindoctrinated, and into the polling booth.

It's very hard to see any other state than Florida tipping in '04, and Florida only because non-whites in southern and central have grown just enough in numbers and been underregistered enough to counterbalance a 5%-10% increase in Republican turnout in conservative Christians in northern and central Florida.

In short, Edwards isn't going to win against this crew of Republicans. And don't be too sure of his ability to carry states like Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, let alone Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. It's not just the North that doesn't find Southern ways insufficiently appealing.

[bowens43]

25. Your assumption that Kerry can't win a southern state

is just an assumption and you know what they say about assumptions. You have no evidence, none, zero , zip to back up your statement. It's ridiculous to think that we can't win states in the south without a southerner on the ticket. You are doing a great disservice to who live in the south.