Is Kerry's sudden rise in popularity suspicious?

[Ugnmoose]

Maybe I'm just a hardnosed cynic, or maybe my 55 years have taught me not to accept things as they are, especially when it comes to politics, but I for one am increasingly more suspicious about who and what is behind Kerry's dramatic rise in popularity. After all, just a couple of months ago this guy was on the balls of his ass and out of money. He had to dip into his own pocket to fund his campaign. And his message was bland and non-resonating.

Then along comes the Iowa Caucus and whammo - and a surprisingly impressive victory, followed a week later by an equally impressive victory. So I ask my fellow DU'ers, what gives? How did this happen?
And is it on the up and up?

We have all read stories today in the blogs and internet sites about Kerry push-polling and possible robo-calling Dean supporters. And then there is the curious voting pattern out of New Hampshire which showed virtually no change in the vote percentages between Kerry and Dean from the outset.

Again my paranoia may be taking over, but I am beginning to get suspicious. I have always felt that the one candidate in the race who would be most friendly to the "inside the beltway" crowd who control the Party's purse strings would be Kerry. Could it be that Dean, being an "outsider" was too much of a threat to these folks and needed to be taken down, hence the media hatchet job done on him after Iowa?

We all know that politics is a very dirty game. Could it be that what we are witnessing is an example of what makes it that way?

[economic justice]

1. Two words: Paid Media

I have read from too many Dean supporters that the Kerry commercials in Iowa and New Hampshire were just better. He had a lot of money to spend on those nice, slick ads too. Paid media the last week of an early primary can undo 2 years of work. Dean's apparently just didn't cut it.

[Raya]

7. Dean Out-Spent Kerry 2 to 1 just on Ads. Had 60 sec ads to Kerry's 30

[JasonBerry]

It's true

I agree with Mark. I was in Iowa and New Hampshire and feel that the ads from the Kerry people were actually much better.

[JasonBerry]

12. Mark

Thanks for the email btw. I must admit that when you stick to the nuts and bolts of politics I love reading your posts. If you could just move a little off that radical center. :)

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

2. yes

and we know why

[jpgray]

3. Was Dean's? Was Clark's? Was Edwards'? (nt)

[Amager]

4. The polls showed Kerry gaining in the week before the Iowa caucus

He was also leading in the NH polls. his victory was due to solid hard work, and because most people voted for him. The VOTERS apparently like him. That's it in a nutshell. No tricks, no secrets, no conspiracies. He got there by honest to God votes. Period.

[cthrumatrix]

11. the mid december Bin laden / Dean TV ads...how soon we forget ...go

and do a google on bin laden and dean....a treasure trove a "hit stories"

[Amager]

30. Welcome to the game of politics

The Dean camp has been known to take some swipes as well.

[Democrats unite]

5. Whos is the media praising & who is the media tearing down

Answer: Praise = can't beat Bush, tearing down = will tear Bush apart!

[THUNDER HANDS]

6. oh come on

Kerry wins every demographic in practically every exit poll. He's got a wide, HUGE, base of support that's an inch wide and a mile deep (unlike Dean, which is a mile wide and an inch deep). Many people might not know John Kerry, because he's a stodgy old senator, but they take one look at him and ...well...they trust him.

They look at his record. They look at his life story. Which, much to the dismay of Dean supporters who think that keeping your personal life secret is a virtue in a president, actually HELPS undecided voters decide on a candidate. They look at his 6'4" frame and his deep voice and they see a guy who can be president.

It's that simple.

When they look at the other candidates they see good people, but Kerry just stands out from the crowd.

That's why he's gaining in popularity. I saw this coming two years ago.

[Mobius]

60. They do?

please do not speak for me. I see an asshole elitist from a fraternity with no rhythm.

[theboss]

8. So, let's argue that Kerry stole the primary

This is a great way to start a campaign against Bush.

Here's the hard facts. Politics is a dirty, nasty, brutal game at times. And everyone gets down in the muck occasionally. I am sure some "dirty tricks" have come out of most of the campaigns. I would frankly be disappointed if they didn't. I respect hardball campaigns.

But if you are going to accuse candidates of out-right cheating - rigging the votes essentially - you'd better have damn good proof.

I'm talking Joe Kennedy sending Frank Sinatra to talk to Sam Giancana type of proof. Oh, that's right, boys and girls. Our Patron Saint JFK played one of the dirtiest, nastiest brands of politics ever. We're talking Irish Boston pulling drunks off the streets and sticking them in the voting booths nasty.

So, spare me the the clutching of the pearls.

[cthrumatrix]

9. well Iowa was the shocker...the lead up to was started by smears and

ended with questionable campaign behavior (from what I read here).

What I have saw and have commented on is the Bin Laden/Dean TV smear that was hatched in mid Decemeber...and was running in three states (or suppose to)...it started all the "chat about dean" and could he handle "defense"...Kerry and Gep lead that charge.

We don't know who did that TV ad either...but the point is ..'somebody" smeared dean when he was 9+% on Gep and 17% ahead of Kerry 12/11 poll...

The media hit seemed "focused" and kep dean on the denefiensive with the media doing a "countdown"...it's a "hit".

The Iowa scream has been revealed to be nothing other than yelling into a "wired TV mic" that people 20-30 feet away "couldn't hear"...and now that's been documented and shown on ABC news by Sawyer.

So there have been a series of "issues"...and it's taken some wind from the sales of a campaign that "if not stopped" was rolling and probably would have pissed on the DNC...you can see thier web page..they still call dean the "angry dem"...

put 2 and 2 together.... it's all there

[sallyseven]

22. Do you thing that maybe

Dean did himself in on the run up in Iowa? He started to sink because people paid attention. I have found he only says the same thing over and over and with an attitude. You don't have to like Kerry but don't tell untruths about him or Edwards or
Clark. That is unfair. Let these people sink or rise on their own merit without sinister overtones.

[cthrumatrix]

28. I think they all say the same things over and over...but I want them to be

fair to each other...the Osama/Dean ad was the starter that everyone "has no idea who did it"...and people wnat to blame some union workers...fine.

The john kerry playbook vs dean ..telling his supporter so say things dean wasn't is a fact (leading up to and during the caucus)...and now this silly robocalling

It all smells...it's ugly and I'm sure people can add other things for/agaisnt each candidate.

All I know is the negative hit on Dean started in mid december his local and national polls were great...and now he's "the angry, evil, etc..." media pin cushion.

We live in a world where the truth has been "a casulty" for a long time

[blm]

10. You should ask why so many in the media inflated Dean's bubble that turned

out to be not true.

Why did they declare Kerry's candidacy dead for months and dry up his fundraising?

Ask better questions.

[Ugnmoose]

27. Dean was an anomolie

He garnered alot of early support and attention because of his outspoken opposition to the Iraq war and he presented himself well. However, once he bacame a serious threat to the establishment, he started wearing a bullseye.

I guess what is most disturbing about the attacks on Dean is that they are utterly overblown. For example that he is angry, hotheaded, unpresidential, unelectable. For God's sake if you want to attack someone, attack them on their record or experience. Don't invent a personna or image that doesn't exist. But as I said earlier politics is a dirty game.

In the end most people will make up their mind by what they see and read in the mainstream media. The media can make a candidate or break one. The big question in my mind is this. Is Kerry being propped by the DNC or the RNC, or perhaps both but for different reasons?

[blm]

33. And the voters who vote mean nothing?

Noone took worse press than Kerry over the longest period of time. The voters rejected the pronouncement by the media and voted for Kerry.

Just because the PEOPLE proved the press wrong, the press now has to give them what they want, SOME coverage of their chosen candidate.

[sandnsea]

13. Did he NEED a loan???

I don't know. Did Dean NEED to be the frontrunner and take some hits? Yes. Did Kerry have confidence in his ability to swarm the state at the end and pick up the undecideds. Yes. Is he just a better strategist? Maybe.

[AntiCoup2K4]

14. Hell yes!

ANY candidate, especially one with absolutely ZERO to run on against Bush, rising so fast would be suspicious. One with ties to the same criminals as Bush, doubly so. And it certainly reinforces the theory that DLC is nothing more than Republican infiltrators determined to destroy the Democratic Party from the inside.

Mark my words, if the DLC costs us this election, or even "wins" with a puppet whose differences from Bush are only superficial, we're officially in a one party fascist state.

This could very well be America's last fucking chance to save itself. And I'll be goddamned if I will be herded like a sheep into Camp Kerry where I can chant "Bring it on" 24/7 while the world slides the remaining last few yards into Hell in a handbasket.

[lancdem]

25. That's right, blame everyone else for your candidate's poor showing

Sorry you can't accept the fact that voters might actually choose someone else. These conspiracy charges are baseless and freeper-esque.

[porkrind]

40. Well Said !!!

F*ckin' A !!!

[GalleryGod]

57. Haven't Heard that Retort since, The Bronx 1965. PoorChoice,Pal.

Let's keep our collective sexual proclivities out of the discourse,today. Deal?

In the Faculty Nook,NOW, being joined by Dr. Jonathan!

G.G.:smoke: :pals: :donut:

[Crewleader]

15. One thing I know Kerry donated $10,000 to Veterans'

in NH and they put his campaign sign in the windows...Clark donated the money he got from EBAY auctioning off his sweater...his sign went up then Kerry went by again and donated another $10,000. So Clarks' sign went down just left Kerrys'.He's buying his promotion with the veterans turns me off.

Stuff like that with his money bothers me. How will he relate to the everyday working families when he's been in Washington all these years and comes from a silver spoon. And with his voting record the repugs will rip him apart.

That spin with Clark started by Bob Dole about the General being over a LT. the media backlash and Kerry sides with the Media...his vote for the Iraq War makes me not want him. He did it because he thought it would be the popular vote to do for his campaigning to be President. Tonight's debate makes me feel correct when I heard the General say, it was rumored throughout the Pentagon and Washington the push for Iraq War and he would know.And Edwards and Kerry gave Bush the blank check easily to go to War.

[bornskeptic]

50. Of course Clark would never have voted for the IWR, right?

Or maybe?

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Retired Army General Wesley K. Clark said yesterday that he probably would have voted for the congressional resolution that authorized President Bush to wage war in Iraq, taking a position on a key campaign issue closer to that of Senator John F. Kerry than Howard Dean's strong antiwar stance.

"On balance, I probably would have voted for it," Clark said. "The simple truth is this: When the president of the United States comes to you and makes the linkages and lays the power of the office on you, and you're in a crisis, the balance of the judgment probably goes to the president of the United States."

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/clark/articles/2003/09/19/clark_says_he_probably_would_have_voted_for_war/

[LostInTheMaise]

16. Kerry will insure that Bush wins in 2004

Nothing that Kerry can do will sell him to middle America. He is a doomed candidate.

[David Dunham]

23. Kerry is now a much more solid candidate than Gore in 2000

[ibegurpard]

37. That is a completely amazing statement

Speaking only from personal experience (take that as you will), I supported Gore wholeheartedly in 2000, even with his choice of Lieberman for VP (who I was not at all enthusiastic about although my extreme distaste for him didn't come until later). I have no such feelings about Kerry, whatsoever. None.

[GalleryGod]

55. In Total Agreement, David

Nice thinking by you. Good analytical process vis-a-vi Gore 2000

GRADE:"A":smoke:
G.G.

[GalleryGod]

53. Declarative Sentences Are Very Lame Excuses for Intellectual Discourse

GRADE: "F"

Your Man in the Faculty Nook of the S.U.B., :donut: ,Grading Blue books,

G.G.:smoke:

[GalleryGod]

54. A Well Chosen Screen Name,However. Well Done, Indeed.

Good Work By you. :silly:

[isbister]

17. Dean shot himself in the foot

and then stuck it in his mouth.

[lancdem]

18. Kerry was the early front-runner well before Dean

not a surprise at all he would have the potential to reclaim that mantle. The guy who's the front-runner the year before the election often doesn't win the nomination. You can look it up.

[ibegurpard]

19. check out this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=229204&mesg_id=229204

[KoKo]

46. Yep, that thread and the PNACer who donated the Thousand to Kerry.

There's alot of stuff out there and many reasons for Kerry. Who he hangs around with also.

Who knows? So, many odd things have happened in the last 10 years, I will almost believe anything.

Kerry's "out of the blue" rise to be the nominee in a month? Well.....it could also be that folks in Iowa and NH just don't want to think about what's wrong with America. So, they went for "safe." He would appear "safe." If you don't want to have to work hard in the next year and bother with being too enthusiastic. Kerry could have tapped into that.

[arewethereyet]

20. the why part is not that hard to figure

First and foremost, Dean deep sixed himself leaving a vacume.

Kerry had looked himself in the mirror before Iowa heated up and decided that he really did want to win and reinvented his campaign. Were there some dirty tricks ? Of course but nothing unusual and Gephardt did far more than he did.

He is a seasoned pol and knows how to get things done. He worked hard, took advantage of the evolving situation and got the win. That in hand, number two was child's play. He was virtually in his home state and the darling of everyone along with Edwards but Edwards is a southerner and not in any position to take full advantage of his boost up there.

Next week is another matter.

[DemBones DemBones]

21. No. Kerry was leading in the polls before the primaries

and he won, which means voters were telling the pollsters how they'd vote.

Kerry revamped his campaign when it wasn't going anywhere and started getting his message out. I think people really want someone who'll win and see Kerry's military experience as a big plus for running against Bush.

Dean's campaign screwed itself by blowing too much money and apparently not being able to buy enough ads in the media in NH.

And Dean screwed himself with his arrogance, IMO. I just read today that voters in Iowa told pollsters they found him arrogant, which is how I've seen him all along. Too much ego, too much confidence, too much whining about "picking buckshot from his rear."

I'm in my mid-fifties, too, and plenty cynical, and I know Washington Dems prefer someone they know. But when the alternative was Howard Dean, who referred to Congress as "cockroaches," who can blame them?

[cthrumatrix]

29. wrong....he was down by 17% to dean in Iowa on 12/11 before the Osama/Dean

ads for TV hit (mutlistate campaign)and then his poll number dropped


google dean and bin laden and enjoy reading all the media smear that came out that NOBODY claim crdit for.

[fujiyama]

35. There were others...

There was another ad as well -- that one dealing with the taxes and the latte drnking, volvo driving, NY times reading elites.

However, on both the tax ad and the Ossama ad (I never saw this one), Dean made it easy and almost definite that these policies and statements would reach the media.

I understand what Dean meant by saying "We shouldn't prejudge Ossama", but a lot of people didn't. God, what the hell was he thinking? Is he so naive to believe there wouldn't be negative attack ads?

What happened this year is no nastier than any other campaign season. I think these conspiracy theories are idiotic.

[bigtree]

24. Yeah

I'm actually a figment of my own imagination. No, I'm a dupe. Or maybe a plant. That's it a Kerry plant, here to bend your mind. Better start talking Dean of I'll blow my cover.

Did I say that out loud?

[lovedems]

26. Here is my 2 cents...

I think Kerry must come off better in person than he does on television. He obviously connected with the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire and that is on a personal level. This week we entered the national campaign. Kerry isn't my top 3 because all I see of him is what I get on television and I hate to say it, but he seems kind of dull. However, I give the voters of NH and Iowa credit for liking what they saw.

So, I think it will be interesting because he is going to have to reach alot more people and it will be done mainly by television so it is no longer personal. The votes in the next couple of weeks will tell me if I am right.

Can he get what was liked about him on the personal level to the national level?

[DemBones DemBones]

36. In Massachusetts, he gets the blue collar vote so he

obviously knows how to talk with and relate to all sorts of people. I'm sure he learned a lot of that in the Navy. Military service used to bring people of different backgrounds together, though people with Kerry's financial advantages often got out of it.

I think Kerry looks reserved and a lot of times people get a reputation based on something they can't control. And maybe he wasn't feeling well during part of the campaign. Didn't he have his cancer surgery about a year ago? Did he have radiation or chemo afterwards? I don't know, but it could be part of the answer.

He's shown more passion in his speeches lately so that's a plus.

Dennis will always be the best but Kerry's likely to win and I think he's a much better choice against Bush than Dean.

[creativelcro]

31. Paid media and cheating.

[OutlawCorporatePolls]

32. No, its not surprising at all.

It's just amazing to watch em do it.

Both Fox and CNN are big contributors to the Kerry campaign.

News Corp (FOX) donated $29,400 to Kerry in 2004.

http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/contrib.asp?id=N00000245&cycle=2004

The question becomes, should they even be allowed to carry a FoxNews POLL?

Also, if anyone can find the actual Delegate count on FOX's website, post a link. I couldnt. All the media is so hush about the actual delegate count. lol. They will wait until after Tuesday to mention it (if Kerry wins that is).

Now, as for CNN, Time-Warner is Kerry's second ALL-TIME contributor. Should THEY be allowed to carry out a CNN poll?

http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/contrib.asp?ID=N00000245&Cycle=All

Then, MSNBc gets into the fray, and decides to put out their Newsweek poll, on the Friday before NH stating that Kerry is NOW electable 49-46 over Bush, and everyone else losing. lol. Whatta last minute way to swing voters aye? But, Newsweek told us, it must be right.


Its time to either:

1) Ban corporate polls

or

2) Ban media contributions


One or the other.

Or just wait until more folks get online and read more.

[Ugnmoose]

39. Always follow the money

Because money carries with it a quid pro quo. It is money and the special interests behind it that rule in Washington. The result is the little guys - you and I get the shaft. That is what Dean has been railing about when he says we need to take back our government. Not to take a cheap shot at Kerry, but he is typical of the "inside the beltway clubbers".

[bornskeptic]

51. Of course Time-Warner is Dean's top contributor this cycle,

and Newscorp is also on his list. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe these are just contributions from employees. Anyway, I don't think there's enough money here to mean anything.

http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/contrib.asp?id=N00025663&cycle=2004

[oasis]

34. Dean began losing ground with his Osama and Saddam comments. Kerry, in

the meantime, was surrounding himself with America's heroes, veterans and firefighters.

[zoeyfong]

38. at the last minute dems decided to go with the "safe," "electable" choice.

I think that what happened was that when it came down to it, many voters decided that kerry was the most "electable." Kinda like the way repubs decided that dubya was most electable in 2000. I completely disagree that kerry is any more electable than dean; kerry has big negatives with both liberals and conservatives. in any case, going with the 'electable' candidate is probably not a good way to get a good president. Just look at the current occupant of the oval office.

[lurk_no_more]

41. The voters in IA and NH

Just saw Kerry as the better candidate, these are folks that take their elections seriously, When push came to shove, they voted for who they thought was the most electable, I expect to see others follow their lead.


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

42. Imho,

[John_H]

43. That's the power of the media, folks. They talk and

unfortunately people listen.

[AnnitaR]

44. Sheep follow.

Dean & Gephardt screwed up in Iowa, Kerry swooped in and won.

The media whores crowned him and the rest is history.

[Shanty Oilish]

63. Bah!

;) I'm no sheep and I am pro-Kerry. Nobody was crowning him before Iowa.

[Dr Fate]

45. Kerry is popular in those states....

...that is about all this means...

[Dover]

47. I want to know why Dems have dragged their feet on addressing BBV

E-Voting problems. This has bothered me for some time now. You'd think after Florida and the whole 2000 debacle they'd be all over it.

Also bothering me is NO discussion of the Patriot Act sections passed in secret with Senate voice vote this past Fall. Why aren't they on their soapboxes about that?

Kerry has said he approves of "parts" of the Patriot Act. WHICH PARTS EXACTLY???? I want to see how the Senate voted in Nov./Dec..

Sorry, slightly off topic, but reflects the issues I have with the Dem insiders and its leadership. And I too am suspicious of exactly why ALL these things have been pretty systematically ignored or avoided. We have some slow movement on the BBV issue, but no urgency to remedy the situation by 2004.

[LSdemocrat]

48. Not really, its just soft support

Like most of Dean's support was. Tons of friendly media coverage will do that to you.

[Egnever]

49. Nope just proves the publics willingness to be led by the nose,

[FrenchieCat]

52. Yep....

Cause they are afraid of ever seeing this: The winning ticket for Dems who will cut their throats with the knife handed to them by the RNC.....who will take the knife and poke us to make sure we are really dead!

[Mobius]

56. Um Diebold?

Rig it so Kerry gets the nomination, cuz they know he won't beat Bush? Just a thought. :shrug:

[GalleryGod]

58. Even Dr. Jon got a laugh out of THAT one!

Thanks for the input from "the Grassy Knoll Society".
Keep those Yuks-a-coming. LMAO:hi:

G.G.:smoke: & Dr. Jon:hippie: in the Faculty Nook of the S.U.B.

[Mobius]

61. I was not joking

Stranger things have happened. How many months did we argue over paper dimples last time?

[emulatorloo]

59. From a "brainwashed" Iowan

My main focus of primary season was Kerry and Dean. I was positively disposed to both of them. I studied both of them, I saw both of them, etc etc. I decided in the end to caucus for Kerry.

There were a lot of factors in my decision. I never saw the ads you mention, but would have dismissed them as right wing chicanery.

I saw a lot to admire in JK. I decided Kerry could do a better job as President based on what I saw, and researched.

John Kerry worked very hard in Iowa, starting around Veterans Day, which I beleive is around the time that his campaign was shaken up. He really did connect with people - they responded to his message, and they caucused for him.

[Guaranteed]

62. I think we're seeing fear.

We're seeing the same garbage that we were seeing back at the end of 2002, beginning of 2003. People are trying to hide behind Kerry's military record, forgetting that he's the one who abandoned them in the first place. Weak. As. Hell.

[Indiana Democrat]

64. Yes.

It's a conspiracy.