What happens to Dean if he does 0-7?

[Endangered Specie]

If the answer is hes done/out... how many states do you think he needs tuesday to still stay in?

[Gman]

1. What happens?

He's out, done for, finished.

[Endangered Specie]

3. so then how many does he need to stay in?

the second question is perhaps the most important

[returnable]

2. If he fails to hit 15% in any of the states...

...put a fork in him.

[piece sine]

18. Zogby just this morning

shows that Dean does not command even 15% of the vote in any one of the seven states holding primaries on Tuesday. Dean doesn't muster 15% in any of them!!!!! Anybody else throwing the towel in, or do we have to hear the death-rattle first?

[HereSince1628]

25. I'd rather wait 'til the fat lady is done singing

But I will admit its going to be very hard. Dean needs to win and to be highly placed in non-wins.

I don't know how Dean's money has been used. He may well need to spend 3-4 million in the next week just to have advertising in these states. If he has spent money to do that I'm not worried, if he still needs to spend to get that advertising well, I am worried about having enough.

Without money it obviously comes down to triaging states, that means accepting low finishes. That wouldn't help build confidence needed for a comeback.

But...but that's all anxious speculation because I have no idea how the money's been spent and what the campaign's plans are.

[D G]

4. He could come back - you never know

It depends on how demoralized his campaign gets.

[Hep]

5. Don't forget he still has more delegates than anyone

It will depend on how THAT looks after Tuesday.

[Zomby Woof]

23. those are superdelegates

Very fluid and will drop him like a brick when he loses in the next round.

[Nazgul35]

6. As far as I know....

the only candidates with any electoral delegates as of right now

are Kerry Dean and Edwards...

In most of the states, Dean was running first or second, he could not win one state but still be in second with the delegate counts...meanwhile, he will have spent time in the Feb. 7th states with the possibility to picking up wins in more delegate rich states...

The only thing that could actually hurt Dean would be for Clark or Edwards to pull a Clinton by winning 6 of 7 states next Tuesday...but than that would hurt Kerry as well....

and I don't think it is likely...both Clark and Edwards are low on cash and trailing Kerry in most polls....quite frankly, due to the division of voters between Clark Edwards Kucinich and Dean (the anti-establishment voters), Kerry will probably walk to the election....because the candidates will have stayed in too long to allow these voters to coalesce around an alternative...

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. You just gave reasons #1-5

for why the single-digit nobodies need to get their carcasses out of the election and let the real contenders do their fighting. I understand issue raising candidates need to be there. They've served their purpose admirably. But time's up. Move on.

[Ramsey]

7. He'll probably stay in

Dean would probably stay in the race if he didn't get any wins next week, at least until the states with lots of delegates hold their primaries through early March.

The states voting next week mostly have relatively few delegates. dean has actually made a decision at this point o target larger states that vote in a couple of weeks.

Although certainly a win or two would help in the momentum category.

[joshcryer]

12. He is hitting those states though.

All he needs to do is envigorate the grassroots movement, and it'll happen on his own. He just needs one first place finish in a big state (seattle, new york, california, etc), and the rest can be second place finishes.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

8. Peace out!

:hi:

[Clark Can WIN]

10. If he goes 0-7 He should track down Trippi and

beat him with a freakin' rubber hose. That man decimated Dean's campaign and took credit he didn't deserve. Hopefully his political career in the big leauges is finished.

[GumboYaYa]

11. He stays in no matter what happens.

IMO he is planning on staying in to the convention regardless of the results. If he loses he will endorse the nominee at the convention. That is why he is cutting expenditures and conserving cash.

I think Dean realizes that he is the only candidate that is willing to say some of the things that need to be said in this country.

Did anyone see Chris Matthews interview Dean after the debate?

Dean said that there is ample evidence that the President and his administration misled America about the case for war in Iraq. He added that the adminsitration is now trying to argue that this was a war about Saddam's bad acts, but most of those occurred when the United States was in bed with Saddam under the prior George Bush. Dean then proceeded to list some of the other bad actors that we have allied with in the past (Pinnochet for example, I was really hoping he would say Mubato too, but he didn't list that creep.) Dean then called for an independent investigation of the Bush administration to find the source and motivation for their lies.

I can't tell you how long I have wanted to hear someone say those things. Other candidates will only dance around these issues. I will continue to support Dean to the bitter end, just so that we have a mouthpiece to really question the Bush administration and not just take the politically expedient path.

[Clark Can WIN]

26. We need him at the convention

Dean accomplished many good things in his campaign.

[RobertSeattle]

13. GoodBye Howard Dean

(Sung to the tune of Goodbye Norma Jean...)

[jsw_81]

14. He goes back to Vermont

You simply cannot lose the first nine primaries and caucuses and then expect to win the nomination.

[JNelson6563]

15. "expect"? No. "try"? Yes.

His presence, regardless of standing in the race, forces some of the, shall we say "less lively" candidates to address issues they might otherwise prefer to skirt.

I should think all would consider this a good thing.

Julie

[paulk]

16. there will be tremendous pressure on him to drop out.

He needs at least one state to even remotely justify staying in. The latest Zogby poll shows him running at no better than 12% in the four primary states. With no money left to advertise, Dean may not only lose, he may not even pick up any delegates.

[nickinSTL]

19. Dean in or out?

I think Dean will stay in. Since he's not paying for ads in the Feb. 3rd states, I think he'll go on.

However, if he doesn't win any of the states between Feb 3 and Mar 2, he's in serious trouble.

I expect him to stay in until Mar. 2, but if he doesn't have some strong results by then, he'll be out soon afterwards.

Of course, I expected Gephardt to last until the MO primary on Feb.3, so...who knows?

[blue agave]

17. Dean is down-playing Tuesday's elections

and concentrating on Michigan.

If he does poorly on Tuesday, but wins Michigan then he goes on.
If he does poorly on Tuesday, and does not win Michigan, bad news.

It will be difficult for him to demonstrate that there is a region in which he is competetive. Although, I wonder how he would do in some of the more liberal states such as CA & NY.

[John_H]

20. e gets the Dem Primary play-at-home boardgame and a host of

other nice parting gifts.

[Darth_Ole]

21. Dean's even said he doesn't need to win Tuesday.

He's going after the delegates in Michigan. And Michigan has more delegates than any of the Feb. 3 states.

Edwards and Clark could win states like SC and OK and split some delegates with Kerry. Dean wins Michigan big time and he's back in it. We'll just have to wait and see.

[WI_DEM]

22. his strategy for 2/7 is to get delegates

then do well in Michigan, Washington, and Maine on Feb 7-8. He will do surprisingly well on Feb 3rd imo.

[Cleita]

24. It's not over unless he can't win California.

IMHO