How many seats in the House do we need? 16 ?

[FogerRox]

just 16 seats in november 2006. I'm ready here in NJ, I predict NJ will un-elect 2 repubs in the House. Garrett in the 5th CD and Ferguson in the 7th CD.

SO-- we need 7 or 8, make it an even 10 other states to do the same----

NJ antes up with 2 seats-- who else thinks their state can take out 2 repubs from the House?

Let me hear you NOW, Time to lay it on the line


The race is on ! ! !


>wink<

on edit--
Current House line up: 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats
We need to pick up 16 seats

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_oet&address=358x817

[ISUGRADIA]

1. In MN we have an open seat in the 6th that is a possibility

especially if the Repub primary race turns ugly. And John Kline in the 2nd will lose to Coleen Rowley, I hope. So 2 more Dems from MN.

[FogerRox]

2. yeah Minnesota is in-- thats right folks-- you gotta be in it- to win it

any folks from Texas?

OR Califromia ?

[jean]

10. Two MN republican Reps will lose in November

:kick:John Kline :kick:Mark Kennedy


Three of the four MN repub reps, Kline, Kennedy & Ramstad, pushed to vote for new leadership before DeLay stepped down.

http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/politics/13566626.htm

AP NewsBreak: Kline, Kennedy, Ramstad call for new GOP leadership

FREDERIC J. FROMMER
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Three of Minnesota's four House Republicans called for new GOP leadership on Friday, with Rep. John Kline leading the charge to replace embattled Tom DeLay, R-Texas.

Kline was joined later in the day by fellow Minnesota Republicans Mark Kennedy and Jim Ramstad. Rep. Gil Gutknecht was the only Minnesota House Republican not to call for new leadership Friday.

>>>

Later Friday, Kennedy, R-Minn., said that House Republicans need to elect permanent leadership when they return to session in a few weeks. "Given his ongoing legal problems, I cannot envision a circumstance where Tom DeLay could once again assume his leadership position when we meet in January," Kennedy, a candidate for Senate, said in a statement.

Later still, Rep. Jim Ramstad, put out a statement saying it was time for a "fresh start" for GOP leadership. "It's clear that we need to elect a new majority leader to restore the trust and confidence of the American people," Ramstad said.

>>>

[flpoljunkie]

3. Dems need a net gain of 11 seats to take back the House. Thirty seats are

said to be competetive, some say as many as fifty--so it certainly doable. But, of course, the Dems need to make a case for themselves--other than they are not Republicans. They have already succeeded in tying the Democrats, with the help of the media, to the Abramoff scandal by not always indicating Abramoff contributed to zero Democrats, but, of course, he directed his clients, various Indian tribes, to make donations to both Republicans and Democrats.

It is just too damn bad that our representatives in Congress have to spend so much damn time raising money so they can pay for TV ads and enrich the media's coffers. This must change if we are to stop the corosive influence of money in politics; we need them beholden to the citizens, not the special interests--public campaign financing is the answer, with candidates meeting a threshold of numbers of supporters to qualify for public funds.

Hard money from individuals ought to be reduced. You don't need gobs of money if you do not have to pay for TV ads!

[sandnsea]

5. Can you run your math for me

I heard 15 and it seemed to be right when I looked up the races at the DCCC yesterday. What am I missing with the 11 seats??

[flpoljunkie]

8. Sorry, those are old numbers from a Time article in 2004. I think 15 is

more like it. Will try to find a link to verify. Thanks for the correction.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Number seems to be 15. Link to article from DailyKos.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/11/9/172146/214

The Senate picture is relatively simple to see (if a majority there is more difficult than the House IMO): we have strong challengers already in dead heats or better in the polls to GOP Sens. Rick Santorum (PA), Lincoln Chafee (RI), Mike DeWine (OH), and Claire McCaskill (MO). We have strong candidates holding GOP Sens. Conrad Burns (MT) and Jon Kyl (AZ) under 50%. We have a dead heat in the Tennessee open seat race. Finally, we have an intriguing challenger just announced in Nevada and an increasing likelihood of a Trent Lott retirement in Mississippi. All of our incumbents look to be in good shape, and we consistently lead in our open seats in Vermont and Maryland. The lone toss-up on our side is the Minnesota open seat race and the lone question mark is the New Jersey seat that will be filled by a Corzine appointee who, presumably, will attempt to defend it against a strong GOPer. Out of this, we need to net 7 seats.

My main focus, however, has been on the House. There, we need a net gain of 15 for control, but the playing field is far larger and House Elections are affected far more by the national mood, which looks to be our biggest asset heading into 2006.

One month ago, I ranked 74 seats that we have the potential to win in 2006 based on various empirical data in order of chance to win. I did the same for 42 seats we are defending that the GOP at least has a theoretical chance to win. I did so largely without knowledge of or evaluating challengers.

Today, I update those rankings taking the challengers into consideration. I have added six GOP seats to that list based on challenger strength. Each of these challengers have already raised at least $90,000, and four are running in races that just missed the original list. Another is a statewide candidate in a state where the Dems have had success recently (Montana). The sixth is a huge longshot, but features an insane incumbent and a very energetic challenger who is already on the air with ads (Bryan Kennedy in WI-05). On the GOP side, only two challengers in races not on the original list have shown this kind of fundraising strength, and those two are challenging Reps. Danny Davis (IL-07)(Chicago Loop) and Barney Frank (MA-04)(Part of Boston and Brookline). Those two aren't losing under any circumstances. I'll deal with the GOP seats now; ours later.

[LynneSin]

14. The number is 15

And that's with the assumption that Duke Cunningham's seat ends up still going republican (that's the only open seat).

[FogerRox]

15. thanks good kos link-- here is the top ten from the KOS list

Potential Pickups

1. Iowa 01 (Prev. rank: 1) (Dix/Whalen/Kennedy (R) vs. Braley/Gluba/Dickinson (D))
This open seat features crowded primaries with well-funded candidates on both sides. The strongest candidates are probably State Rep. Bill Dix (R) and Attorney Bruce Braley (D). Braley is the leading fundraiser in the race ($306,000), and the seat leans Dem.

2. Colorado 07 (2) (O'Donnell/Paschall (R) vs. Perlmutter/Lamm (D))
This open seat is a classic swing district. The Dems have a competitive primary between two former legislators, Ed Perlmutter and Peggy Lamm. The GOP nominee will be either Colorado Higher Education Commission Chair Rick O'Donnell or Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall.

3. Indiana 09 (3) (Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) vs. Former Rep. Baron Hill (D))
The third race between Sodrel and former Dem Rep. Baron Hill will be another marquee matchup. Hill won narrowly in 2002; Sodrel won by a ridiculously narrow margin last time. In a Dem year, Hill should win.

4. Connecticut 04 (5) (Rep. Chris Shays (R) vs. Westport Selectwoman & '04 Nominee Diane Farrell (D))
Shays barely escaped the first matchup between the two. In a Dem year, Farrell looks poised to finally oust Shays and capture this Dem-leaning district.

5. New Mexico 01 (16) (Rep. Heather Wilson (R) vs. New Mexico Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D))
Wilson has won narrow races against second-tier opponents, often with assists from the Greens, since her first win in a 1998 special. This year she draws the top potential challenger with nary a Green in sight--and in a Dem year to boot. Say sayonara, nipplewoman.

6. Pennsylvania 06 (9) (Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) vs. '04 Nominee Lois Murphy (D))
This rematch of a 51-49 race from 2004 should only get better for our side with the improved fortunes of the Dems and with Ed Rendell and Bob Casey expected to romp here at the top of the ticket. Murphy has already raised $433,000 and has $350,000 on hand.

7. Connecticut 02 (7) (Rep. Rob Simmons (R) vs. Former State Rep. and '02 Nominee Joe Courtney (D))
Simmons sits in the most Democratic district held by a GOPer in the nation. He won in 2000 in a fluke and has been fortunate to see two GOP-friendly election cycles since. Courtney has raised $356,000 and has $308,000 on hand.

8. Illinois 06 (6) (State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) vs. Cegelis/Scott (D))
This is retiring douchebag Henry Hyde's seat, and Christine Cegelis is trying to build on her 44% in 2004, when she held Hyde to the lowest percentage of his career. First, however, she must defeat college professor Lindy Scott in the primary and then defeat well-connected and well-financed Hyde heir apparent Roskam. It remains to be seen what effect, if any, Roskam's ties to Tom DeLay will have. The Chicago suburbs are trending hard Dem.

9. Washington 08 (4) (Rep. Dave Reichert (R) vs. Burner/Gordon (D))
Reichert is a freshman who narrowly won this swing district when it was open last time. The Dem challengers, former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner and attorney Randy Gordon are unknowns who must build name recognition. Neither has had great fundraising (not bad, but not great). Still, you gotta figure that this one will be tight when all is said and done.

10. Wisconsin 08 (10) (Gard/McCormick/Lawrie (R) vs. Kagen/Wall/Nusbaum/Langan (D))
This open seat race is to replace Rep. Mark Green, who is running for Gov. This Green Bay district is traditionally GOP, but the Dems won it the last time it was open, in 1996. The fact that it's a Dem year will help. Gard is the state House Speaker and the clear favorite on the GOP side. Kagen (a doctor), Nusbaum (a former county executive and mayor of DePere), and Wall (a business consultant) all have had impressive fundraising totals, almost catching Gard and easily surpassing the other GOPers, including state Rep. McCormick.

[LynneSin]

12. I think the number is going to be higher with all the corruption

People are getting fed up with the lies & corruptions of the Republican party and I think a few stalwart republican seats could go democrat including Tom Delay's seat and repuke powerhouses here in PA - Curt Weldon & Melissa Hart.

Thirty seats is the competitive number if we had somewhat honest politicians in DC. We don't and therefore every seat should be competitive. If Paul Hacket could almost beat a republican in the most repuke county of Ohio then you better believe that more than thirty seats are competitive!

[sandnsea]

4. 15 is what I heard

The DCCC called yesterday and said 15. Just 15 seats. Sadly, it looks like the Texas filint date has come and gone, and almost none of those seats have been contested. Almost none of the R seats in the south have anyone contesting them. Dems in those states need to get busy.

[crispini]

44. 'Scuse me, but we have candidates in ALL congressional races.

Please see:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_oet&address=358x1727

[tritsofme]

6. My district, the IL-8, is vulnerable to a GOP pickup

It is a very conservative district that first term Congresswoman Melissa Bean won because of a perfect storm in 2004.

Many liberals in the district are also disenchanted with Bean and have labelled her a "DINO" because of her votes on things such as the bankruptcy bill and CAFTA.

[LynneSin]

13. Sometimes that DINO label can work well in a conservative district

First, I'm not a fan of DINO but I also respect that we need democrats to match the district. And therefore I have no problem supporting a DINO if that's what is going to take to win the seat because no matter how a DINO votes the main vote we need from them (and will get) is a "D" in our column.

A vote for a DINO is still a vote for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. In PA-10, the seat is vulnerable because the current representative, Don Sherwood, admitted to adultery and there are charges that he beat his mistress. PA-10 is extremely rural Pennsylvania where "Liberal" is a dirty 4-letter word. But if a conservative democrat can run against Sherwood, that democrat can be very competitive and peel off republican voters who are disgusted by the actions of Sherwood (who is still running for re-election). Currently Chris Carney is running on the dem ticket and is receiving praise and endorsements from Republican voters.

We need a democratic majority and we have to find the best democratic candidates to run in each district, sometimes matching the ideologies to those who live in that district. But any democratic including the most conservative ones will still support democratic leadership. That's what we need in 2006

[KharmaTrain]

48. Welcome Neighbor

Good to see another IL-8th'er here who feels the same way I do. Melissa is miles ahead of what this district had...Phil Crane...just think of Duke Cunningham with a heavy alcohol problem, and that was our former "representative". This area is gerrymandered like crazy to protect Crane and put him with all the big suburban Chicago money that he shook down regularly. While Melissa isn't the progressive Rahm Emanuel would like, this district won't be a sure vote for the wingnut agenda any longer.

Now there's a battle going on in the 6th district to replace Henry Hyde. Christine Cegalis has worked for the last 4 years to build a following in that district and hit over 45% of the vote last time. With Hyde gone and a very motivated local organization, this seat could be a pick-up next year. Instead resources are now being used for what's turning into a bitter primary fight. A shame.

The Progressives and Liberals in the area...many who worked for Bean, aren't happy campers, but we know what a battle it was to be the only district in 2004 to be a Democratic pick-up and how difficult it is to hold on next year. While I didn't agree on either CAFTA or the bankruptcy bill, I spoke with Melissa and her office and was told these votes took a lot of big GOOP money (bankers and local Fortune 500s) off the table...the hopes are once this district and others nearby are secure then a more progressive/liberal agenda will be easier to work on and be elected on. One step at a time. You can't go from red to blue overnight...some purple is required.

Cheers...

[KharmaTrain]

7. Try 25 or More...Real Control

While I say this with reservations, while a one or two seat majority will give Democrats the ability to control the agenda and run the committees (very, very important), it won't give the governing control many here would like. It would make it easy for the Repugnicans to steal a "Yellow Dog" or "DINO" to slow things down or push their agenda...thus at least a 10 seat or larger majority would be prefered. This is what the Repugnicans got in '94 and haven't looked back since.

Now's a great time to find a Congressional race near you and get involved...every seat will count!

[AX10]

39. 218 is a majority of one.

Democrats need to take 230+ seats to have real control. 234 seats would be great. 240 the best.

[LynneSin]

11. I'm gonna work on about 2-3 seats we can pickup in Pennsylvania

I think that Mike Fitzpatrick(PA08), Jim Gerlach(PA06 and Delay suckup), and Curt Weldon(PA07) are all vulnerable. And I'm thinking we could possibly get Don Sherwood's seat (PA10 and Adulterer/Mistress Beater) seat even in a conservative part of Pennsylvania.

So you can pretty much guarentee a few seats being picked up in Pennsylvania. I'm also thinking we're going to get a few Democrat Pick-ups in Texas.

I'm here to fight - let's win back the house!

[FogerRox]

16. Ok we have—

NJ: ----------------2 seats
Minnesota -------2 seats
Illinois -----------2 seats
Pennsylvania---2 or 3 seats

That’s 8 or 9 seats, Delay loses—that’s 10. How about Randy Cunningscam-- hes from ahh California? Sounds like 11 right here.

then add in the top ten from the KOS list- minus Il & Pa. thats 8 more.

1. Iowa 01 (Prev. rank: 1) (Dix/Whalen/Kennedy (R) vs. Braley/Gluba/Dickinson (D))2. Colorado 07 (2) (O'Donnell/Paschall (R) vs. Perlmutter/Lamm (D))3. Indiana 09 (3) (Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) vs. Former Rep. Baron Hill (D))
4. Connecticut 04 (5) (Rep. Chris Shays (R) vs. Westport Selectwoman & '04 Nominee Diane Farrell (D))
5. New Mexico 01 (16) (Rep. Heather Wilson (R) vs. New Mexico Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D))
6. Pennsylvania 06 (9) (Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) vs. '04 Nominee Lois Murphy (D))
7. Connecticut 02 (7)(Rep. Rob Simmons (R) vs. Former State Rep. and '02 Nominee Joe Courtney(D))
8. Illinois 06 (6) (State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) vs. Cegelis/Scott (D))
9. Washington 08 (4) (Rep. Dave Reichert (R) vs. Burner/Gordon (D))
10. Wisconsin 08 (10) (Gard/McCormick/Lawrie (R) vs. Kagen/Wall/Nusbaum/Langan (D))

Sounds like 18 or 19 seats in the House

Up thread someone posted we need 25, I concur.

[LynneSin]

21. I think we'll get a couple from Texas

because people are upset about the redistricting especially now that it's out that it was all corrupted. If anything I keep hoping they go back to the old district maps (the ones they did in 2001) because we could gain back six seats

[radio4progressives]

25. X your fingers that Duncan Hunter in California is the Target by the Feds

Hunter chairs the house armed services committee - and this guy is completely evil and has his fingers on all these Pentagon DoD contracts, AND specifically tied to the Dukester.

(Duke Cunningham who was recently reported to have copped a plea agreement with the FBI and Justice Department - agreeing to wearing a wire with persons not yet disclosed, but many suspect might be Duncan Hunter (hopefully)and here's an interesting article that points to a few specifics.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-11-29-cunningham-case_x.htm?csp=34

Contractor spends big on key lawmakers

(snip)

Brent Wilkes, the founder of defense contractor ADCS Inc., gave more than $840,000 in contributions to 32 House members or candidates, campaign-finance records show. He flew Republican lawmakers on his private jet and hired lobbyists with close ties to those lawmakers.

(snip)
With help from two committee chairmen, ADCS got more than $90 million in government contracts since its founding in 1995, helping propel Wilkes from an obscure businessman to a millionaire prominent in Republican circles.

(snip)

Since 1994, Wilkes and ADCS gave $40,700 in campaign contributions to Rep. Duncan Hunter,a San Diego Republican who now chairs the House Armed Services Committee. Hunter has acknowledged that he joined with Cunningham in 1999 to contact Pentagon officials who reversed a decision and gave ADCS one of its first big contracts, for nearly $10 million. Hunter's spokesman, Joe Kasper, said the congressman was unavailable for comment Tuesday.

Another California Republican, Appropriations Committee Chairman Jerry Lewis, led panels that ordered the Pentagon to continue programs that aided ADCS when Pentagon officials wanted to cut them. Lewis got $71,253 from Wilkes and his employees in donations since 1993. Wilkes gave Lewis donations and met him at various events, Lewis spokesman Jim Specht said, but "he never talked with him about a defense project."

cont:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-11-29-cunningham-case_x.htm?csp=34

Additionally, looks like Sensenbrenner might be vulnerable in these investigations and possibly a few others .

Mind you, this is completely separate from the Abramoff investigations, which is still unfolding.

[orleans]

49. great news, huh? yes indeed! n/t

[ArbustoBuster]

17. Gerlach is vulnerable?

:woohoo:

I live in his district, and I really want him out.

[LynneSin]

20. Vulnerable - hell he almost lost in 2004

And Lois Murphy is coming back in 2006. With Emily's List behind her and the association that some organizations are making between Gerlach and Delay - the guy will be toast.

Check my sig-line and you'll find Lois Murphy's website. I'll be helping out her campaign alot in 2006 because it's probably one of the best chances we have for a democratic pickup.

BTW, welcome to DU :hi:

Oh, I'm in delaware and Mike Castle is just too well-loved to even bother trying to get his seat. I'd rather fight where we have a chance!

[sandnsea]

23. Okay, on Sherwood

Please explain to me how an adulterer and possible woman beater even has a prayer to keep his seat. What area does PA10 cover??

[Doctor_J]

54. Yeah, funny, ain't it

that PA10 is so "conservative" that they will re-elect a mistress-beating adulterer. Isn't it cool what Limpballs has done to the English language?

[FogerRox]

28. I'll be in NJ 5th CD-- north border of Jersey, next to PA-------

[radio4progressives]

18. No ! We need over 30 seats - roughly 35 more would be at minimum

for best outcome, imo. we need to move forward with impeachment and other reforms that the Repukes will never deal with left to their devices.

[FogerRox]

19. now thats the attitude-- 35 seats-- did you hear that DUers

35 seats would truly be

kickin ass

[sandnsea]

22. 15 is psychologically reachable

We only need 15 seats for control. That gets people motivated to see what's up in their own districts or find districts to support if theirs is already Dem or utterly hopeless. Raise the number and you discourage people. We only need 15 seats is also what the DCCC is running with, so for gods sake, can we just stay on message for once.

[FogerRox]

24. good point

we need 15 seats to take the House back

But 35 would be kickin ass

[sandnsea]

26. There ya' go

Believe me, I'm all for kickin' ass. And we should definitely be well aware of 30-40 highly competitive seats and work our butts off for every one of them.

[FogerRox]

27. the motion to lick ass, passes -- lol-- tons of work, yes- but worth it

[sandnsea]

30. Lick ass??

eeeewww! :) I knew what you meant.

[FogerRox]

37. oh I didnt use the spell check OMG Ooooohhhhh

I meant Kick...... .............

[Silverhair]

29. Go for it.

Regrettably, my own district is a strong scarlet, but there are some in Texas that may be possible.

[sandnsea]

31. Filing deadline closed Jan 2

Look at this and please please tell me all is not lost in Texas.

http://www.dccc.org/races/states/tx/

[Silverhair]

33. Wow. Tough times ahead.

All Democratic House members have a Republican opponent, but some Republican Representatives are being allowed to run unopposed.

Oh Well, Nobody ever said it would be easy. We got work to do, and lots of it. If we can hold our seats, and maybe turn one or two of theirs, that will be a nice victory.

[sandnsea]

34. Is that it then?

Is this maybe just a primary deadline and somebody can pop in to the GE later?? :shrug: I hate to see so many unopposed seats and if you click around on the map, most of the south is exactly the same.

[Silverhair]

35. I don't know about filing deadlines, but it is probably smart.

Money is always hard to come by, and why waste it on impossible seats when you can spend it on competitive seats. On both sides, there are some seats that are so safe that it is a complete waste of money and effort to even try to unseat them. An example of a super-safe seat on our side would be Gene Taylor in Mississippi, although the Republicans will field an opponent anyway.

The idea is to concentrate on a few specific vulnerable seats, and turn the house.

[sandnsea]

36. Oh I agree with that

But hell, I'd think somebody would stick there name in there and knock on some doors and speak at the Chamber, just to put our message out there. I agree with not dumping money into a completely unwinnable district. But a Congressional race gives local Dems something to rally around, I would think a local effort would have been worth the time and energy to somebody.

[Silverhair]

42. You have just given the flip side of the argument.

If we want to win a district 12 years from now, we need to work now. If we never try, the district stays red. You would think that there would at least be a name up there, even if only a token campaign. After all, they have a name in all of our districts.

[FogerRox]

52. exactly-- I think Dr Dean said-- make them play defence

in all 50 states.

[crispini]

45. Stupid website hasn't been updated yet.

:eyes:

Try the state party website. Try "all races contested." :eyes:

http://www.txdemocrats.org/demswhohavefiled/

[sandnsea]

47. oh goody goody

I was really shocked by that. It seemed to me that with all the focus on Delay that it would be a great time to make some inroads there. I don't totally understand Texas politics, but it would seem to me that a whole lot of people who think of themselves as Republicans now must have thought of themselves as Democrats not too long ago. Must be some way to get them to "come home".

Anyway, thanks for the link.

:bounce:

[Independent_Liberal]

32. Here's what I'm hoping we get...

HOUSE
240 Democrats
194 Republicans
1 Independent

SENATE
58 Democrats
41 Republicans
1 Independent

It would be great if we could get a margin like that.

[FogerRox]

38. That is one pretty picture

[Doctor_J]

55. 58 Dems in the Senate?

umm, let's try to keep it real.

[nickshepDEM]

40. No competitive races here in MD. MD-3 is open, but the only race to watch

will be the Democratic primary. Personally I like Peter Beilenson.

The incumbents are safe, safe, safe.

Ill be working for Cardin for Senate. I will also work for whoever the Dem candidate for Governor is too (O'Malley or Duncan).

[rockymountaindem]

41. CO-7 looks good for us.

Bob Beauprez, who won by only 121 votes in 2002 is running for governor. The Dems have two good candidates looking for the seat while the Repubs have put up some dude nobody's ever heard of who doesn't look like he can win.

Tancredo and Musgrave will be harder to beat, but maybe we can knock one of them out. None of the current Democratic seats are considered vulnerable.

[FogerRox]

43. kick

[Doctor_J]

56. WHen's Elway going to run?

When he was at the end of his NFL career, the talk was that he would be running for CON-gress ASAP. What happened?

[rockymountaindem]

57. Well, he got hit with a nasty divorce for one thing

I don't think that endeared him to the RW crowd. Good quarterback, bad would-be politician.

[Doctor_J]

58. He & wife split?

I missed that altogether. Too bad. He'll win if he runs though.

[zann725]

46. How many Repug reps will be "removed" due to involvement with Abramoff?

We may not need any fixed elections to even the voting score, after all.

2006 will be a GOOD Dem year, I know.

[AlecBGreen]

50. Virginia here

:hi: We have a good chance in the 2nd district. David Ashe, military vet and all around good guy will be taking on Thelma Drake. This district leans conservative but she's a one term incumbent with no real accomplishments. Ashe on the other hand has a pretty strong resumee.

We are running strong races in other districts - James Socas in the 10th, Hurst in the 11th. Id say our other best shot (but a long one) is Al Weed in the 5th vs Virgil Goode.

So in closing, we got one race at better than 50/50, one winnable long shot (the 5th) and the rest are all going to be serious long odds favoring the GoOpers. It just goes to show - you may be right but you wont always win ;) I say we Vuhjinyins knock off one repug and do our part to put this country back on the right track. Good luck to the other 49 of you!

[FogerRox]

53. good point about the Abramoff scandal-- but I'm dont want to count on that

[salin]

51. There is a good chance for IN district 9 to be reclaimed by dem Baron Hill

2002 he beat challenger Mike Sodrel
2004 he was targetted by the GOP - but it was only in the last days when there was a swiftboat billboard and radio ad effort (by a group whose backers were hidden til after the election called "Hoosiers for Truth") when the tide turned and Hill lost a very narrow election.

Sodrel has been less than impressive and Hill has a good chance.

What makes Hill very interesting is that while has been a centrist - his views on the war have been educational. Just prior to the IWR vote he stated that he would not vote for it unless it was an issue of an Imminent Threat, and that at that point he had not been given indication that the threat was there. Locals (we are in the liberal part of his district) were very upset when he ended up voting for the IWR.

However what happened later suggests that not only was his vote sincere rather than following 'consultants' suggestions to vote for IWR (carville and others wrote that there would be a likely greater net loss in support for voting against the IWR rather than for the IWR - which left many dems who voted for IWR as suspect for voting by political calculus rather than conscience). He was on the committee "briefed" by the WH just prior to the vote.

In the summer, after the invasion, he was reached by local peace activists about cosigning a request to force an inquiry into prewar intelligence - he said that he had ALREADY signed - was one of the earlier signers and that he was deeply distressed that about the intel (implicit and the use of scare tactics and slanted intel to get his, and others' votes.) Point is, that even before he was personally swiftboated, he was expressed deep concern about the WH and their actions per the war. In short, he was one of the dems who 'woke up' a bit earlier than many others as to the malfeasance with which the admin acted. Many think this is why he was targetted in 04.

Add to his experience being "swiftboated" - and he is a much savvier candidate this time around.

Very good chance to not only retake this seat and add to the dem column, but to add a dem who is less likely to be swayed by the scare tactics spread used by the admin - he was a decent congressman before - and I think he will be an even better congressman in the future.

[ret5hd]

59. .

[GrantDem]

60. IN-8 & IN-9 are strong possibilities n/t