Don't write off the south- Democrats could pick up: Louisiana and Arkansas

[TakebackAmerica]

Democrats should target Louisiana and Arkansas.

Together they comprise 15 electoral votes; which would turn Bush's 278-260 advantage into a 275-263 advantage for the Democratic nominee.



Louisiana: While the south as a whole has swung to the GOP, Louisiana has stayed competitive. In '92 and '96 Clinton won by 5, and 13 points respectively. In 2000, despite not campaigning their, Al gore lost Louisiana by only a 53-45 margin.
In recent years, Democrats have come to rely on Louisiana for crucial victories. On December 7, 2002, when Democrats were desperately in need of a victory, Mary Landreiu defeated a GOP onslaught to win reelection. Democrats also picked up a House seat on that same day. In 2003, after losing 2 Governorships, Democrats turned to Louisiana for a victory. Guess what happened? A Democrat won the Governorship.



Arkansas:

If Democrats nominate Wes Clark we can pick up this sates. 3 of the 4 congressman are Democrats. Arkansas was a very close state in 2000 and will likely be one again in 2004.

[R3dD0g]

1. The republican gov in Arkansas

is seriously pissing off the rural folks with his talk of school consolidation. (Personally, he's right, but it pains me to support an R)

One of the rural school superintendants commented this week that the Gov's support of consolidation could cost * the state.

[fujiyama]

12. Arkansas gov is a repug huh?

I think Clark should consider running for governor there. He could then run again for the democratic nomination. I think with the campaigning experience he would have aquired by then would make him even more competetive than he was this time (that's if he doesn't get the nomination this time of course).

[R3dD0g]

26. During the runup to the 2002 election

Us Arkie Dems were aching for Clark to take on the Repug. Of course he didn't. I don't know whether it would have been better if he had or not.

He probably would've beaten the Repug, but then he would've been tied down for 4 yrs. I think it's more important to have him out in the presidential race than soiling himself with this consolodation mess.

[jfxgillis]

2. Yeah, well, The Dems aren't going to nominate Clark

How does that affect your strategizing?

[TakebackAmerica]

3. I think we will!

Edwards will be gone after 2/3 and Dean will be gone after 2/7.

That leaves Clark,Kerry and the rest

[jfxgillis]

20. I've seen this scenario proposed by other Clark supporters ...

... and I don't see it being a winning scenario for Clark, even though it probably gives him his only chance.

For longtime Dems, Clark is an independent seeking the nomination of a party to which he did not even belong a year ago. That might not matter if, as with Eisenhower in '52, he brought something to the table that the party didn't have and that it needed.

But he doesn't. Clark was supposed to bring military credibility to a party bereft of it in the shadow of a potential Dean nomination. But Kerry has that credibility, PLUS he is really and truly a Democrat.

Why would Democratic primary voters choose a non-partisan independent over a loyal Democrat when on the one issue that was supposed to distinguish Clark from the Dem field, he doesn't appear especially distinctive?

[StClone]

4. From a Clarkiac

I feel that things are not looking good for my General.

If Kerry is riding a crest of Vietnam Vet turnout (and all vets in general) and their families in a backlash of anti-Bushism what can I say.

I'll support Kerry if he can beat Bush and it is a plus knowing that Kerry has a good envirnomental rating -- my number one issue.

"If our enviroment is dead so are we."

[jfxgillis]

22. StClone ... I wholeheartedly commend you and ...

... empathize.

It is SO HARD to be ruthlessly analytical and not desperately illusional at this point in a campaign.

I've been there myself many times over the years since '68. Take heart from the words of the late, great Morris Udall (after he got drubbed by Carter in NH), a hero of yours I presume, and for whom I voted in the 1976 Democratic primary: "The people have spoken ... the bastards!!"

[StClone]

29. Rationale

Is to beat bush. Thanks for the pat on the back we are in this together.

[library_max]

30. Thank you.

This is exactly the kind of thing we should be hearing more of. And if things should reverse after the southern primaries and Clark emerge the front-runner, I'll be just as happy to support him.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jfxgillis]

19. Um. The post I responded to included a contingent assertion

To which I responded.

As a matter of fact, a Kerry nomination is a MUCH more probable contingency than a Clark nomination.

Now. I think Kerry is going to be more competitive in the South PRECISELY because of his record of combat valor. Can I name a state he'll win on that account alone? No. If he can through effort or circumstance put some of those states in play, might his battle record be a tipping point? Yes, I think so.

[mobuto]

5. Why stop there?

Democrats are extremely competitive in North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, and, of course, Florida. West Virginia is normally a Democratic stronghold. A smart Democratic nominee could even make Bush campaign in Texas, the ultimate coup. Wes Clark could certainly do just that.

[girl gone mad]

6. You got that right about Texas.

Bush is not another LBJ here. His support is waning.

A candidate that cared about the south could at the very least make these states competitive again. Regardless what the Northerners say about abortion and gay rights.

[dolstein]

11. I doubt even LBJ could carry Texas these days

The Democratic Party in Texas, which has been in decline for quite some time, has been effectively destroyed by Bush and DeLay. The Republicans won every statewide race in 2002, didn't they? And they won nearly every statewide race (I think "Traitor Dan" Morales was a rare exception) four years before that. No Democrat has won a Senate race since Lloyd Bensten back in 80's. And now Delay has succeeded in gerrymandering nearly every white Democratic Congressman out of a seat. Even if the Republicans completely screw up the state government, the Democrats can no longer mount an effective challenge to them. In short, Texas is poised to join the ranks of Idaho and Utah as one party states. Pretty soon it will be hard to spot a Democrat outside of Austin.

[TakebackAmerica]

13. Well....

I think you've been reading "The Emerging Democratic Majority," a little too much! :crazy:


North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia are all currently out of reach for Democrats. Bush won those states by an average of 11 POINTS!

[dolstein]

7. Edwards/Landrieu or Edwards/Clark

could carry these states.

[mlawson]

14. Yeah, they COULD.....

But it's not going to be that way. The nomination is already decided; can't you feel it? The "party" is determined to nominate someone who can not possibly carry those states, or any others that Gore didn't.

Why??? Because it's his 'turn', I suppose...

[dolstein]

15. Yeah -- I just can't understand why Hollings and Clyburn

would endorse someone like Kerry. Same for all the Missouri politicians who are now backing him. Kerry can't win these states. Edwards could. (Sure, South Carolina would be tough, but at least Edwards would have an outside shot.). Kerry is the worst candidate we could nominate if we're interested in getting votes of Southern working class voters.

[mlawson]

18. Why??? Because it's his turn, as I said. It's the party system.

He probably has the most political chits to cash in. This is turning into an almost exact rerun of 1984, as I have been predicting now, for months. Since when does the DNC/DLC care whether or not we WIN???

--- "Well... It's Kerry's turn this year. Let's get the bandwagon rolling. Hey, he'll win a few states, make a good showing. Then before you know it it'll be 2008!"
--- "Whose turn is it then?"
--- "Ah, let me see. Biden. That's it: Joe Biden."
--- "Or, maybe John Edwards?"
--- "Naw, he might win. We'll let him be VP with Kerry this year. That'll shut him up."

[jfxgillis]

24. Listen. Important factors in the decision

Experienced and knowledgable officials and opinionmakers were faced with a set of Hobson's choices after NH:

1. Dean: Rabble-rousing (good) agnostic (bad) Social Democrat in the European mold (worse).

2. Kerry: Massachusetts liberal (bad) with a record of combat valor (good).

3 Edwards: Southern accent (good) with zero portfolio on military/foreign affairs (bad).

Since Dean was cratering anyway, it came down to the Silver Star versus the accent.
And that a closer call than many DUers appear to recognize.

[flpoljunkie]

32. Kerry wins across ALL categories of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/19/politics/main594108.shtml

Demographically, Kerry’s lead came from many sources. The oldest caucus attendees, those above 65 years of age, supported Kerry, as did those with less than a college education. Despite much talk of Dean’s popularity with young voters, Kerry also won the most support among 17-to-29-year-olds – 35 percent to Dean’s 25 percent. Liberal voters went for Kerry with 33 percent giving 25 percent support to Edwards, and 24 percent support to Dean. Moderate and conservative voters preferred Kerry by larger margins.

Surprisingly, Kerry also won the most support among union households, a likely factor in Gephardt’s poor finish. Kerry received 29 percent of their support, compared to only 22 percent for Gephardt. Edwards also won 22 percent of union household support, and Dean received 19 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/29/politics/campaign/29SURV.html?pagewa...

January 29, 2004

THE VOTERS

Kerry Support Found Across Wide Range of Democrats

By DAVID E. ROSENBAUM and JANET ELDER

MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 28 — For two weeks in a row, Senator John Kerry has demonstrated broad support among Democratic voters across economic, ideological and demographic lines.

Surveys of voters entering the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19 and leaving polling places in New Hampshire on Tuesday showed that Mr. Kerry did better than his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination in practically every voter category: among men, women, the young, the old, Catholics, Protestants, rich, poor, those with advanced degrees, those with only a high school diploma, voters who consider themselves fairly liberal and those who say they are moderate or conservative.

Even when his opponents made specific appeals to voter groups — as Howard Dean did with those under 30 and those who opposed the Iraq war, for example — they were generally unable to do any better than Mr. Kerry, and sometimes did worse.

In New Hampshire, Democrats from union households and those with veterans in the family favored Mr. Kerry, the junior senator from neighboring Massachusetts. So did voters who have a gun in their homes.

[mlawson]

35. Yes. These are committed, involved Democratic voters.

They are already involved in the election cycle, at a time when millions of voters can't name one Dem candidate. Is Kerry the best nominee, when it comes to exciting and converting the apolitical masses who don't get involved until after the World Series??? They are the ones who finally decide most races, and they often choose according to criteria that we would consider mindless.

Now if we could get these 'swing' voters to stay home in November, we would be all set. But they won't.

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. actually there's some different numbers this year

If the 2000 election were held in 2004 Bush would have won by more electoral votes than he did due to census data stuff.

I'm not sure how many votes Bush picked up this way, but we have a slightly longer road to hoe than we did in 2000.

But, if we win Ohio it's all moot anyway.

[TakebackAmerica]

10. MG,

Pre-Census electoral votes: 271-267
Pre-Census electoral votes: 278-260


Arkansas and Louisiana or Arkansas and Arizona would wipe out W's margin.

[IndianaGreen]

16. Abortion and guns

Democrats will not carry either of those two states.

[dolstein]

17. Clinton did

and he supported abortion rights and gun control.

[jfxgillis]

25. So, you're saying Clark will betray the Democratic position

on Abortion and guns in order to carry those states?

No thanks, bub, I'D RATHER LOSE.

[library_max]

21. Yes, Louisiana and Arkansas are in play no matter who we nominate.

Also, don't forget Florida.

[dolstein]

23. You've GOT to be kidding

Sorry, but states like Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida will NOT AUTOMATICALLY be in play.

What is it that drives DU'ers to conclude that because Al Gore nearly carried Florida, then ANY Democrat could carry Florida? Al Gore had a lot of strengths that DU'ers are overlooking. For one thing, he was the VP in an administration that had a phenomenally successful economic record. For another, he was from the South (at least technically). And third, he had Joe Lieberman, who was enormously popular in Florida.

Sorry, but these states will not be in play unless the Democrats nominate John Edwards or Wes Clark. Sometimes the truth hurts.

[library_max]

27. "These states will not be in play unless the Democrats

nominate John Edwards or Wes Clark."

Got any facts to back that up? Any polling data? Anything?

Here are some interesting facts on the other side. Although Michael Dukakis lost all three states (and most of the other states) in 1988, he did better in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida than he did in Ohio, Arizona, and a lot of other states that are supposed to be in play this time. And JFK (the last Democratic presidential nominee from New England before Dukakis) won both Arkansas and Louisiana, although Nixon won Florida.

[PVnRT]

28. To be "truth"

a statement has to be backed up with facts.

Frankly, I think you are insulting the voters in those states, basically saying that they are incapable of making up their own mind, they will just vote for whoever is from there.

And for the record, Gore did not win his home state, Tennessee, nor Clinton's home state, Arkansas, in 2000. How do you explain that?

[Joseph Thule]

31. I like Kerry in Florida too, actually.

Supposedly he's already sending a legal team down there.

[library_max]

33. LOL!

[mikehiggins]

38. I like Clark in Florida, and I even like Sharpton in Florida

I think Kerry will be the biggest mistake the Democratic party has made since Dukakis.

At least Kerry would look at home in a tank.

[knight_of_the_star]

34. How about this

We wait to do strategizing until AFTER the results for Feb. 3rd come in, capice?

[TakebackAmerica]

36. Agreed. n/t

[dansolo]

37. Clark or Edwards could win both

Kerry won't win either. The recent Democratic victories in Louisiana were with southern candidates. Based on the coverage of the recent election for Governor, a northeastern candidate doesn't have a prayer (this includes Dean)