What are the odds of a Dem majority in '06?

[SHRED]

Isn't it going to be very difficult, barring massive indictments, due to redistricting and such?

Anyone know how many seats are up for grabs and how many we can realistically get?
Link?

[Nitrogenica]

1. Site of interest.

http://www.removerepublicans.com/

[AX10]

2. Dems should get a majority of the Governorships and State Houses.

27-29 Governorships, including California, New York, and Ohio. Governors in those states will help us win in 08'. A majority in the House is doable. Dems can get upwards of 235+ seats.
The Senate will be harder as only 1/3rd of the chamber is up for re-election.

[Crazy Dave]

3. I've heard some stats. but the exact numbers I don't know.

A few in '06, maybe a few more in '08. There are very few incumbents leaving office anymore, (term limits anyone?) and it is more difficult to unseat an incumbent as people are scared of change and the incumbent has a huge amount of finances behind them and name recognition. It should be a landslide democratic victory if justice and common sense would prevail but lately, I'm not so optimistic as some people never change. Vote with emotion and blind obedience seems to dominate.

[Peace Patriot]

4. Additional sites of interest:

www.votersunite.org ("MythBreakers," easy to read pamphlet on the perils of electronic voting).
www.UScountvotes.org (project for statistical monitoring/challenges in '06 and '08).
www.TruthIsAll.net (proof that 2004 was stolen, and the exit polls fiddled by the corporate news monopolies)
www.solarbus.org/election/index.shtml (updates on the election reform movement)
www.verfiedvoting.org (more about election reform)

Also of interest:

Bob Koehler article about recent Ohio ELECTION REFORM initiatives, predicted to win by 60/40 votes, flipped over to 60/40 LOSSES (!) on election day (the machines and their masters now dictating election policy and preventing reform):
www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?file=20051124ctnbk-a.txt&catid=1824&code=ctnbk

Amaryllis post on the hogfest at the Beverly Hilton last August-a week of fun, sun and high end shopping for election officials from around the country, sponsored by Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia:
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380340

Russ Holt's HR 550, a good bill that will help rid us of private, partisan electronic voting companies, by (among other things) banning undisclosed software. Sign the petition. http://www.rushholt.com/petition.html

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I think they will let us make some very modest gains in Congress this year (nowhere near a majority), and may put a War Democrat in the White House in '08 (term limited by Diebold to four years), to calm things down a bit, point away from the "trade secret" software, and get a military Draft--also to start putting the blame for Bush's financial and foreign policy disasters on the Democrats. Then, lookout in '12. Jeb Hitler will save our asses from the Shia Caliphate.

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Throw Diebold and ES&S election theft machines into 'Boston Harbor' NOW!

[qazplm]

5. my understanding is

you need at least 50 seats that are competitive for us to have a reasonable shot of getting the 15 seat gain we need.

I dont believe we have that and so while gains are very very likely, the odds are low of us taking over the House.

Having said that, I dont think anyone anticipated the Republican takeover of 1994 either, but back then incumbency wasnt as big of an advantage as it is now with redistricting.

[AX10]

9. In 94', the GOP was expected to make gains but the Dems...

were to keep control of both Houses.

Most saw a 25 seat loss for the Dems in the House and 4 in the Senate. That would have given us 232 in the House and 53 in the Senate. At the end of the night, the GOP had 230 House seats and 54 Senate Seats. Democrats can most certainly retake the House.

[Imagevision]

6. 49% Dem -- 36% Repug as of todays poll

[OneTwentyoNine]

7. As good as Diebold rigging more elections than ever thought possible...n/t

[demosincebirth]

8. Its going to be very, very difficult.

thats why I'm not getting my hopes up.

[MiniMe]

10. Agree, but with the Abramoff flood gates open, you never know.

[TankLV]

11. I see a landslide!

Now to address he diebolod problem...