and useful information.
It is my assessment of what happened in 2004 that they were constricted by having to pre-program the vote switching to certain percentages. I believe that that is why they engaged in the outrageous and highly visible violations of the Voting Rights Act--seemingly designed to rile people up--in Ohio. Kerry's win was bigger than expected--and bigger than the percentages they had pre-programmed for.
I think it was a 3% or so vote flip (that was planned and pre-programmed), bigger on the east coast, but with small %'s taken here and there from around the country; whereas I think Kerry won (in actuality) by about 5%, if you count the minority and other votes that were purged or suppressed. The exit polls--the real ones--showed Kerry beat Bush by a 3% margin, but the exit polls only count those who made it to the voting booth. (Greg Palast estimates the number of purged black voters at one million nationwide.)
IF they could have flipped votes at will--to whatever percentage they needed--why engage in all that messy, visible vote suppression--opening themselves up to the lawsuits, to the Boxer Rebellion challenge on Jan. 6, 2005, to charges of racism, and to continuing doubts and questions. Although the electronic fraud was probably the worser crime, I don't think it would have roused Boxer and Conyers so much without the Voting Rights Act violations--such an affront to the black community, who fought so hard for the right to vote. Why would the Bushites do that, if they didn't have to? (--if they could accomplish their purpose by entirely sneaky means.)
So, at least as far as 2004 is concerned, I think, either they were dependent on pre-programming, or they are just bastards who oppressed black voters because that's the kind of thing they enjoy (not unthinkable, with this crew).
Will they be dependent on pre-programming in 2006 (and 2008)? I tend to think so, because they are now fighting hard for more tools with which to suppress the black, minority and poor vote. Voter IDs. Centralized voter purge programs.
Another restriction on them: They can't invent all the votes out of thin air. There have to BE votes, for them to tweak the vote. And the easiest elections for them to steal are, of course, the close ones. So all other campaign wisdom applies: get out the vote, raise money, fight hard, run good new candidates, fresh faces, leftists, antiwar activists, go for it!
There are several studies that show that, in 2004, there was a distinct advantage to Bush (an impossible one), in electronic voting vs. any kind of paper ballot. So, even though they ALSO count paper ballots electronically (put the results into a computer), the election thieves are apparently more cautious when it comes to paper ballots (in case of a recount, I guess).
In California, I found evidence that points to the central tabulators as the culprits, and Republican political control of the county (not type of voting machine) as the essential condition for fraud. Optiscans, touchscreens and punchcards were all equally bad, in theft of votes from Kerry. The vote thefts from Kerry occurred in the Republican counties--or, I should say, occurred in the central tabulators, from the "totals" that were coming from Repub counties--the implication being that the election thieves could count on Republican election officials to look the other way on suspicious totals.
I'm not 100% sure of the California hypothesis, but I'm pretty sure of it. But there are different systems and conditions all over the country, so what was true in Calif. may not be true elsewhere (that they steal votes more easily in Repub counties, or are cautious as to the appearance of things, i.e., a big turnout for Bush in a Repub county wouldn't seem so weird, even if it was false). In fact, one study shows massive vote theft from Kerry in the three biggest Democratic counties in Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach). I'm just saying, one thing to look for (monitor, protest, try to change) is partisan Repub control of the election machinery.
In an election that was more or less similar to 2004, I would say shoot for a 10% margin of victory. I think that could overcome the fraud.
In the actual 2004 election, I think they had, Plan A, electronic fraud, Plan B, Ohio and other vote suppression, and Plan C, a "terrorist alert" shutdown of the voting, probably designed for the west coast. If Kerry had won by a 10% margin, we might have seen rather a nasty confrontation of the national security state vs democracy. But Kerry won by only 5%, which they could handle by one means or another.
But political conditions are different now. Disapproval of Bush has been running very high (60% to 65%--and for Cheney, 80%!), for a year now. Disapproval of the Republican Congress is also very high. And the sum total of crimes, scandals, indictments, pending indictments, failures, and ugliness surrounding the Bush junta is overwhelming. They are in a very weak political position compared to 2004.
And there have been some significant exposures of the electronic voting scam--in Florida, North Carolina, California, New York and other places--with an ever growing and persistent election reform movement.
It DOES appear that they are experimenting in Ohio with massive vote flipovers (the recent election reform initiatives), but keep in mind that Ohio may be a special case of Republican tyranny and crime. Flipovers of that magnitude would undoubtedly raise at least eyebrows in most other states (and I think much more than that). It's important not to get a defeatist attitude, and to keep looking to the future. One day, that 60/40 flip in Ohio may turn out to be their biggest mistake, and topple the whole election fraud system.
In '06, I would look for something else. I would look for MODEST (very modest) gains by Dems, which are aimed at defusing the election reform movement. One Dem WINS, unexpectedly. And everybody cheers. But meanwhile 5 other Dems lose, mysteriously. As long as the election system is NON-TRANSPARENT, we cannot and should not trust the results, or ever rest on our modest laurels. They can reverse things at any time. Dems gain 10 seats this year, and lose 30 two years later.
A good sign: In recent polls, the public showed a THIRTEEN PERCENT PREFERENCE for Dems in the coming election. That's MORE than my theoretical 10% for overcoming the fraud.
All in all--besides unrelenting pressure on our state/local officials and Dem Party leaders, demanding transparent elections--here's what I think we should do:
1. Go for max voter turnout--but tell people the truth. The machines are rigged. But the rigging CAN be overcome with massive turnouts, and that is our strategy. This way--telling the truth--people won't get discouraged and disempowered. They will know what they're up against. They'll want to help overcome it.
2. Monitoring and gathering evidence. VERY IMPORTANT. Look to future elections, not just '06, and think in terms of being able to get rid of these Bushite election machine companies altogether, after this election. Go to www.UCcountvotes.org, for instance, which is a project for statistical monitoring and challenges of the '06 and '08 elections. You need FACTS to mount challenges of suspicious results. You also need evidence with which to pressure election officials and educate the public.
2a. Demand that the Dem Party fund INDEPENDENT exit polls! Critically important! The corporate news monopoly exit polls cannot be trusted! (They DOCTORED their exit poll data, late on election day, on everybody's TV screens, in 2004, to confirm the results of Diebold's and ES&S's secret formulae.) Also, look into other verification tools, like "parallel elections" (recently used with some success in San Diego, I believe).
2b. Get in the faces of election officials before, during and after elections. Demand to SEE how our votes are counted. (ha, ha) But at least, watch the machines. Be a public observer. Get informed on this matter. There ARE things you can catch on election day (unauthorized people, computer breakdowns, etc.). Ask about "uncertified patches." Follow the numbers carefully. Pressure, pressure, pressure them! Make them know that "the whole world is watching!"
3. Paper Ballots! Wherever possible. Absentee ballots, or paper option (if provided), whatever you can get. (But do not allow them to substitute a "provisional ballot" for a real paper ballot, if a real paper ballot option is available--as was done in some Repub counties in Calif--and I'm sure elsewhere--in 2004.) It remains true--whatever anybody may tell you--that a Paper Ballot is better than no Paper Ballot. It is a concrete record of your vote. It could be critically important in recounts, or monitoring of the machines. IT WAS JUST THAT--CRITICALLY IMPORTANT-- in several post-2004 studies. We should make this a big movement. EVERYONE should be requesting paper ballots!
The election reform movement is still in its infancy--and already has had some big successes--and is growing by leaps and bounds. Don't succumb to defeatism and depression! Remember how long grass roots movements can take--the civil rights movement, the black voting rights movement, the anti-apartheid movement. And sometimes, something can happen, that just sparks the change all at once. OF COURSE the corporate news media is black-holing this story! They were directly complicit in the 2004 election fraud! And OF COURSE some Dem officials have been corrupted by all this electronic voting money. Don't let these circumstances unfocus you. I think that the corruption in the electronic voting industry is soon going to be tied to the Abramoff scandals. That could be the spark that exposes this whole fraudulent voting system, and ignites reform.
This is IT! This IS our fight for our democracy and for our sovereignty as a people. It's not a matter of one election. It's a matter of OUR RIGHT TO VOTE!
Never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, never, NEVER GIVE UP ON YOUR RIGHT TO VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NEVER!
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Some resources.
www.votersunite.org ("MythBreakers," easy to read pamphlet on the perils of electronic voting).
www.UScountvotes.org (project for statistical monitoring/challenges in '06 and '08).
www.TruthIsAll.net (proof that 2004 was stolen, and the exit polls fiddled by the corporate news monopolies)
www.solarbus.org/election/index.shtml (updates on the election reform movement)
www.verfiedvoting.org (more about election reform)
Also of interest:
Bob Koehler article about recent Ohio election reform initiatives, predicted to win by 60/40 votes, flipped over to 60/40 LOSSES (!) on election day:
http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?file=20051124ctnbk-a.txt&catid=1824&code=ctnbkAmaryllis post on the hogfest at the Beverly Hilton last August-a week of fun, sun and high end shopping for election officials from around the country, sponsored by Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380340Russ Holt's HR 550, a good bill that will help rid us of private, partisan electronic voting companies, by (among other things) banning undisclosed software. Sign the petition.
http://www.rushholt.com/petition.html