Any thoughts on "Iranian Opposition"?

[EuroObserver]

I've seen little in the 'news', or here in DU. A quick google yields eg:

Why the Iranian Opposition Should Not Trust the Bush Administration

By RON JACOBS

In the last couple of years, I have written three or four articles regarding the Iranian opposition groups, People's Mujahedin (PMOI) or MEK and the National Council of Resistance in Iran (NCRI). In general, I have attempted to present the views of these organizations as they were represented to me by their supporters. Both of these groups consider their prime objective to be the continuation of the democratic revolutionary impulses of 1979-impulses that they believe were hijacked and destroyed by the Islamic fundamentalist elements among the anti-Shah forces. With this as their fundamental guidepost, these groups conduct outreach to official and unofficial political organizations around the world, especially in the West. Although the groups' supporters consider themselves progressives, they have had difficulty garnering support from the progressive elements in US politics. In Europe, however, it is among progressives that they find their greatest support.

As things heat up around Iran-with Condoleeza Rice recently touring Europe and making noises about Iran's nuclear energy program and George Bush making similar noises in DC (all this while Donald Rumsfeld works with Congress to build a "new generation" of US nuclear weapons)-it seems to be an appropriate time to look at the role these groups play in this tempest. One thing is certain, they are on record as opposing any foreign military intervention in Iran. This has been repeated to me on numerous occasions and can be found in the NCRI's public statements. However, the fact remains that the work of some of the NCRI's members in publicizing the locations of Iran's nuclear sites only serves to further the desire of those in the United States who wish to overthrow the theocracy in Iran by military invasion and subversion.

/more...

also:

GlobalSecurity.org:Intelligence:Iran Opposition Groups

How strong is Iran's opposition? By Roger Hardy

Respectfully questioning your views on moderate Islam
Reader comment on article: Radical Islam as Its Own Antidote

Submitted by AlwaysOnWatch, Jun 23, 2005 at 18:46

Dear Mr. Pipes:

I have read most of your books and value the information presented therein. However, I question your view that moderate Islam is the solution. Where is moderate Islam? Strangely silent--and that silence is very disturbing.

What's happening with the Iranian elections right now shows just how much oppostion exists for moderate Islam (Some would even dispute that moderate Islam even exists). Recently, I saw the coined word "Westoxification" used to express the contempt which hardliners feel toward the movement for which you have so much hope. These hardliners find the very words "freedom" and "democracy" offensive. Worse than offensive. They find freedom and democracy to be poisonous because those ideals do not stem from the Koran or the haddiths. The information to which I am referring can be found at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/21/AR2005062101498_pf.html
Apparently, the jihadist culture of Iran is not completly defunct.

/more...

And this Iran Discussion Board:
...Any comments? 4/8/2005 12:38:35 AM
saw this on worldthreats.com
SaOpen Letter to World Leaders -
A Blogosphere Exclusive
April 05, 2005
An Iranian opposition group inside of Iran, calling themselves the 70 million people of Iran released an open letter to a number of world leaders. This letter is an addition to the letter they sent to the government of the Islamic Republic in Iran. Below is the text of that letter.
They have passed this letter to the US based Iranian oppostion group: Iran of Tomorrow Movement (IOTM) for distribution.

(Text of letter follows... eg quote: "On the 10th of June (2005), the people of the world shall rally to our cause, in solidarity with Iranians everywhere. We have given the mullahs until the 16th of June to submit to the will of the Iranian people and peacefully surrender the power to its rightful owners. We the 70 million Iranians hereby cast our vote to end the Islamic Republic’s reign of terror, and no longer consider the Islamic Republic a legitimate government.
Should they be so unwise not to leave peacefully on June 16th, we are prepared to remove this dictatorship and bring to an end the 26 years of their shameful reign. We will strike on the 18th of June, from every corner of our land, in every city, at every outpost of the Islamic Republic, and will bring those who have wronged us to justice."

- Did anything happen?)

[punpirate]

1. Well, the MEK...

... is not a pro-democracy movement, nor is the NCRI. IOTM is probably a minor movement to reinstall the Shah's son as monarch.

None of these groups mentioned are true democracy movements, as best as I can figure. None of these movements have any chance of taking hold in Iran right now, in large part because none of them are truly indigenous. Any US-based group is likely to be associated with the US and US interests, and none will be taken seriously.

[leveymg]

2. This is Mike Ledeen's creation. It's as fictitious as the myth that Iraq

would welcome invading U.S. soldiers with "flowers and kisses".

Through AEI, Ledeen has been coordinating Iranian exile groups in covert attempts to forment a breakaway rebellion of Arabs in the oil-rich western province of Khuzistan. http://www.aei.org/events/eventID.1166/event_detail.asp

So far, there has been little real success in the neocon "regime change" strategy in Iran. In fact, it's provoked a nationalistic backlash that led to the election/installation of the hard-line Ahmadinejad regime - a success only in the sense that Iran now has a President that's every bit as radical, irrational and militant as the putative leaders of U.S. and Israel.

[EuroObserver]

3. Thanks. That's my impression also so far n/t