As to exit polls and how they can be manipulated to keep people home....

[applegrove]

this from Jan 20 2005:

"Report Acknowledges Inaccuracies in 2004 Exit Polls

By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, January 20, 2005; Page A06

Interviewing for the 2004 exit polls was the most inaccurate of any in the past five presidential elections as procedural problems compounded by the refusal of large numbers of Republican voters to be surveyed led to inflated estimates of support for John F. Kerry, according to a report released yesterday by the research firms responsible for the flawed surveys.

The exit pollsters emphasized that the flaws did not produce a single incorrect projection of the winner in a state on election night. But "there were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry . . . and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush," said Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research and Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International.

The polling firms presented their findings in a much-anticipated report to the sponsors of the Election Day surveys, a consortium of news organizations that includes ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN and the Associated Press.

Throughout election night, the national exit poll showed the Massachusetts senator leading President Bush by 51 percent to 48 percent. But when all the votes were counted, it was Bush who won by slightly less than three percentage points. Larger discrepancies between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote were found in exit polls conducted in several states. At the request of the media sponsors, Mitofsky and Lenski are continuing to examine exit polling in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical battleground states where the poll results were off.

...Snip "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html

[Nederland]

1. Here they come...

The exit poll naysayers who will tell us that the exit polls in 2004 were actually right.

3

2

1

...

[applegrove]

7. There is more than one way to steal a few percentages of votes!

[robbedvoter]

22. yeah, dear, I don't buy "Rove's data" like you do:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3987237.stm

Early exit polls quoted by media seemed to give Mr Kerry the edge, but colleagues said Mr Rove indicated right away that they did not tally with his information.

He used his own data to put Ohio and Florida in the Bush column - bringing cheers from the president and his family when he went into the Roosevelt Room and told them

[AuntiBush]

2. The Evidence Online Alone is So Overwhelming

It's overtly obvious the elections were stolen in both 2000 & 2004.

What really pissed me off is, if all those new organizations "knew" things were not right (I watched Wolf/CNN looked absolutely stunned when Faux announced it for Bush-2004), why then did they sell an entire nation out? Don't think I'll ever watch them again, less the stations start coming clean.

[applegrove]

5. 2000 was stolen by the courts. 2004 - exit polls were off in ridings

where there was no diebold. And now - it was attempted to life the stricter restrictions in Canada. People in the GOP political arm - work in tiny percentages. By releasing information ...early that is incorrect - they keep the people who got off work early, came home & turned on the news or got on the internet - at home. Why vote if your party looks like a shoe-in .. as Kerry did.

Those who say this could not have happened - what about the exit polls being off in ridings where there was no diebold? What about exit polls being off in places where Bush had run before 2000?

[AuntiBush]

12. I'll Not Debate You Because

The proof would fill the National Archives at this point.

[applegrove]

14. It isn't proof. It isn't a smoking gun. It is theories -the diebold stuff.

Lots of stuff written down, that assumes exit polls were right on - is doing just that.

I am saying there is more than one way for GOP to skin a cat or garner % of voting. Keep your mind open. And vote!

[AuntiBush]

16. Learned Something A Long, Long Time ago...

That I choice my debates, and this is not one of them. I've done my homework, poured over tons of articles and my mind is wide-opened, as are my eyes.

Both elections were stolen. Blackwell & Ohio. Are you saying Congressman Conyers book is based on theory, speculation, and lies? Forget about it.

Nuff said.

[NanceGreggs]

3. This is meaningless ...

... UNLESS they compare the accuracy or inaccuracy of the exit polls AS COMPARED TO exit polls taken in counties where paperless machines were used and areas where there was a paper trail.

There have been WAY TOO MANY reports of 'out of whack' exit poll results in counties that used Diebold, or other paperless machines. So was the 'exit poll' wrong - or were the 'official counts' manipulated, and therefore didn't match up?

Just more propaganda ...

[applegrove]

6. So you want to hand all the votes that are lost to fudged exit polls

over to the Repukes again?

Any reason why the press now refuses to do exit polls - as happened in the Nov 2005 elections?

[NanceGreggs]

9. I admit I can sometimes be very dense ...

... but I'm not understanding your response to my post (No. 3)

I heard this crapola in the days immediately following the 2004 election - exit pollsters saying they were just 'way off' in their estimates when they showed Kerry ahead in various places where, after the votes were 'counted', Bush wound up way ahead.

And in MOST cases, their numbers were wrong in counties that used Diebold or other paperless machines, where a recount was impossible and no verification of accurate counts could be done.

So the question remains: Were the exit polls wrong, and the machines right? Or were the exit polls dead-on accurate, while 'machine counts' were manipulated to put Bush in the lead?

[applegrove]

10. Or:

You said: " So the question remains: Were the exit polls wrong, and the machines right? Or were the exit polls dead-on accurate, while 'machine counts' were manipulated to put Bush in the lead?"

My answer: Were the exit polls more Dems than repukes winners being wrong - so wrong on that day - but usefull as they were released from 2PM until 8PM to keep harried Dem voters home. There are already 35% of the US population not voting.

So really - what does it say?

Could be all or none of the above.

I posted about this one day in April last year. The idea just a "popped" into my head after reading in the previous few months. Both Rove and Condi came out that day in a panic (later) - saying "oh we tried to warn pollsters that their numbers were off".

Now when have we ever seen them in a panic over diebold? They let that idea float around and do their damnedest to let it live. Cause it splits us.

Point is... lots of ways to fool voters into not voting. And this crew in the WH will do anything it takes. We should not exclude one possibility from another. Until the proof is in ... it is generalized speculation on the exit polls. And this article seems to be saying..they were missing Repukes in their polling.

[NanceGreggs]

15. Thanks for the reply - now I get ya!

In ordinary circumstances, I would agree that this tactic of getting Dems to think they'd already 'won' would tend to keep voters at home.

However, everyone was well aware of that tactic (this time around) and didn't fall for it. Firstly, exit pollers were saying Kerry was ahead most of the day, but always by a small margin. So people in the mid-west and western states wouldn't have taken the chance of Kerry's lead being overtaken.

In addition, several major cities extended their voting hours well into the night, due to the enormous turnout. If people in Cleveland or Detroit were willing to stand on line (some of them until midnight, and some had been on line since they'd left work at 5 pm) for six or seven hours to vote, obviously the message was still strong out there to 'make every vote count'.

But I would still go back to the fact that for several survey companies that do exit polling every election, there were numerous reports that their exit stats were completely out-of-whack with final 'official' counts in counties that used Diebold machines, while the 'official' counts in paper-trail machine counties matched the exit poll results.

Coincidence? If Diebold machine results weren't 'manipulated', the discrepancy between exit polls and the final counts (always in Bush's favour) would have been consistent across the board, and not only in counties where paperless machines made a recount impossible.

[applegrove]

17. Exit polls were out of whack in many close races without Diebold. Not

every riding in the contry. Certainly not the very safe Dem ridings or the safe repuke ridings. But out of whack in places other than diebold.

Just keep an open mind.

Exit polls were out of whack in Texas ridings when Bush was running for governor. And that was before diebold. Exit polls are likely an old electoral trick - why laws were put in place to stop them from being published. But the internet "gets around that".

With new technology - old games are new again. Especially to someone like Rove or his ilk - who have studied elecions of the last 200 years.

Think about it. Why are there gag rules to begin with? So people will not be influenced and have their vote counted in the same way as people who vote in earlier time zones.

[NanceGreggs]

18. The majority of 'discrepancies' were in areas ...

... where Diebold machines were used. And no, you can't even include Dem strongholds or Repub strongholds -- no one wants to draw TOO much attention to 'discrepancies', so you leave those places alone.

You must live in Canada (as do I, 'tho I'm an American) - we don't have 'ridings' in the US.

And on that topic, do you know where the term 'riding' comes from? I've asked people that over the years, but no one has been able to tell me where the term originated.

[applegrove]

19. Thanks for telling me "riding" is the wrong word. Yes I live in Canada

and our supreme court just turned down the requests of the media to undo the gag rule. We have more time zones than you - Atlantic to Pacific. Boy am I glad supreme court did that. But I will keep my eyes open on election day - and suss out and hunt the first asshole who publishes election exit polls on the internet.

Cause they do affect elections - especially when one side (repukes in the USA) are encouraged to not answer or answer incorrectly - skewing the results.

Last person who did that in the last election - went to court and was fined $1000. D'ya think that will stop it from happening again? I'm guessing influencing and election is much more valuable than a $1000 fine.

Why it is on my mind today.

[applegrove]

20. How many races we talking about - outside of diebold? 10? 50?

Cause you have lots and lots of "ridings".

[Nederland]

23. Not true

A precinct by precinct analysis shows no coorelation between Diebold areas and 'discrepancies'

[applegrove]

26. That is my point!

[Trish1168]

24. Perhaps because this issue could be the tabulators

and not the voting machines themselves.

In otherwords...if its a punch card, touch screen or some other device.....the numbers are put into a spreadsheet like table and sent over the 'net to a central tabulator that then adds all the numbers for all the precincts.

I believe its called the GEMS tabulators.

In my opinion, the exit polls were right and not manipulated (but the vote was).

[applegrove]

27. Keep your mind open. Phony results in polls could be the missing

3% points. Still means election was stolen. Only - likely legally - since getting your team to not answer polls is legal. I don't know. But seeing as how there is an election in Canada & the gag law is up for grabs again.. and was turned down by the supreme court - I'm keeping my eyes & ears open.

[applegrove]

28. No. Not propaganda. Why do you think they would only attack

the vote in one way? I'm not into diebold but get that all sorts of thangs happened that were funny - in all sorts of ways.

Apparently, off exit polls have followed Rove from Texas.

Why is there a gag law on election day? So that all people would vote, and those in later timezones are no influenced in their vote, or, not to vote (in the case where your guy/gal is leading...remember it was overwhelmingly Kerry who was so far ahead. But only from 2PM till around 8PM when the polls closed.

Keep an open mind.

Like they are only capable of being sneaky in the way you describe...

Telling their folk not to talk to pollsters, or getting them in and out of buses that park within 100 feet, organizing a car pool with a driver who drops off and picks up within 100 feet is all it would take to mess up a poll.

There is more than one way to skin a cat. Keep your options open. I wouldn't put anything past them.

[applegrove]

4. And now this in Canda - because people got prosecuted for releasing

information before all had voted:

Top court rejects appeal to suspend election gag law
Last Updated Fri, 13 Jan 2006 16:30:22 EST
CBC News

"The Supreme Court of Canada has rejected an appeal by a group of media organizations to lift a publication ban on voting results for the upcoming federal election.

The election gag law, in effect for the Jan. 23 vote, bans the transmission of election results to areas of the country where polls remain open. The media wanted the ban lifted so results could be published online and broadcast nationwide as soon as they become available.

In a motion filed with the Supreme Court, various media outlets wrote that any impact on other voters would be minimal and should "not justify infringing the expression rights of literally several millions of Canadians."

B.C. resident Paul Bryan deliberately broke the election gag law during the 2000 federal election.

...Snip"

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/13/election060113.html

[applegrove]

8. It seems that people here are saying there is only one way election

results could be gerry-rigged. I'm saying not. Do not ignore the ability of exit polls to be jerked around - and then released to the public before voting is over - keeping harried parents from going to the polls at the end of the day.

Are you saying that parents never make the decision not to vote? That given a reason (oh kerry won) they would not stay home? With 35% of the electorate not voting - I don't think the odd exit poll results can be ignored.

One possibility of many.

And now - looks like the push is on in Canada to allow the same "leaked polls" to exit. Thankfully - our present supreme court turned it down.

[Nederland]

11. Good point

And your theory is more consistent. Those that claim that the exit polls were correct and the official vote wrong are at a loss in explaining who's side Mitofsky is on. If Mitofsky is in on the whole scam, why did he release early data that is "evidence" of election fraud?

[applegrove]

13. I don't know mitosfky. All I am saying - is be ready for all potential

ways. Don't assume it is one. Assume - everything is up for fooling with. And vote in the most secure way possible. But vote. Cause apathy too is on the gop menu when it comes to keeping Dems from voting or winning elections. And diebold is the best thing the GOP has at creating apathy.

What governance puts a new technology in place, finds it is mistrusted, and DOES NOTHING? A government (GOP) who finds a pay-off in it.

[robbedvoter]

21. Compare exit polls in paper vs Diebold states - a picture

[Nederland]

25. Question

Why do your graphs use a state by state analysis instead of a more accurate precinct by precinct analysis?

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Ha! That's the lame graph that TIA tried to champion

Immediately post election in 2004. It was so absurd even he dropped it after a while after getting ridiculed.

Just look at those purported numbers from the exit poll graphs. Anyone with even a vague knowledge of presidential voting tendencies in those states knows how ridiculous they are. Yeah, Kerry got 60% in Pennsylvania, which trends maybe 4-5 points more Democratic leaning than the nation as a whole. Sure, he got very high 50s in New Hampshire, which is basically a 50/50 state with a very slight tilt our way last cycle. Oh yeah, we almost won North Carolina, despite the 10-12 point GOP tilt in that state.