NPR: Judging Alito: The Gang of 14 Factor (possible anti-Alito votes)

[Wordie]

From NPR:

Judging Alito: The Gang of 14 Factor

by Ken Rudin

NPR.org, January 4, 2006 · The prospects of Judge Samuel Alito winning confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court will probably rest with a group of senators known as the Gang of 14. That's the group of seven Republican and seven Democratic (mostly pragmatic) senators who kept the Senate from plunging into a battle over the role of the filibuster last year. They may also hold the key to keeping the Senate from falling into acrimony over another judicial filibuster regarding Judge Alito.

...At the last moment, 14 senators came together and defused what would have been a historical blowup. Under the agreement, the seven Republicans said they would not support Frist's "nuclear option." The seven Democrats agreed to no longer block three previously filibustered Bush nominees and pledged to consider the filibuster of future nominees only under "extreme circumstances." (The phrase "extreme circumstances" was never defined.)

...Some observers have characterized the 14 as moderates. But that's not exactly accurate. On the Republican side, it would be fair to call Maine's Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins moderates. But Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island is as close to a Republican liberal as you could find. And while Mike DeWine of Ohio is considered a moderate conservative, John McCain (AZ), John Warner (VA) and Lindsey Graham (SC) are reliable conservatives on most issues. Nearly all the Democrats in the group, however, are considered moderates: Ben Nelson (NE), Mark Pryor (AR), Joseph Lieberman (CT), Mary Landrieu (LA) and Ken Salazar (CO). Hawaii's Daniel Inouye, though, is a liberal. And for the most part, Robert Byrd -- the senior member of the Senate -- is beyond ideological categorization.

One thing that most of the 14 senators may have in common is a maverick streak -- a willingness, at times, to put partisanship aside and work for a compromise. And that's what brought the "Gang of 14" together. Here is a snapshot look at the group:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5080836

Some of these Senators have already stated how they plan to vote. But these are the Senators who many think might be the most likely to be swayed to vote against Alito. Strong opposition to him might do the job. It's important to know what issues are important to them; that info can then be used in structuring letters and other communications trying to convince them to vote no and/or support a fillibuster. (In other words, know your audience!)

Thanks!

Here is a complete list of the Gang of 14:

Republicans:
Lincoln Chafee (RI)
Susan Collins (ME)
Mike De Wine (OH)
Lindsey Graham (SC)
John McCain (AZ)
Olympia Snowe (ME)
John Warner (VA)

Democrats:
Robert Byrd (WV)
Daniel Inouye (HI)
Mary Landrieu (LA)
Joseph Lieberman (CT)
Ben Nelson (NE)
Mark Pryor (AR)
K. Salazar (CO)

Remember, you can easily call these Senators by using the toll-free number, 877-851-6437 (this toll-free number may only be available on Wednesdays, and I'm afraid I don't know the hours). I've posted the Senators direct phone numbers and website "contact me" pages so you can email them.

[Wordie]

1. Susan Collins (ME) [phone]

Web Form: http://collins.senate.gov/public/continue.cfm?FuseAction=ContactSenatorCollins.Email&CFID=39113496&CFTOKEN=99427497

Collins has been the target of advocacy groups from the left and the right regarding judicial nominations. She is a pro-choice moderate Republican, and she has expressed concern about Alito's votes on abortion. But she also says she sees no grounds for a filibuster.

[Wordie]

2. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) [phone]

Web Form: chafee.senate.gov/webform.htm
Perhaps the most liberal of any Senate Republican, Chafee has a history of voting against the GOP leadership -- which is almost a no-brainer in an overwhelmingly Democratic state. He is among the most vulnerable Senate incumbents up for re-election this year. Even before he gets to the general election, Chafee is facing a strong challenge from the right in the September primary.

[Wordie]

3. Mike DeWine (R-OH) [phone]

Web Form: dewine.senate.gov

DeWine's participation in the group has not been much of a help back home. Conservatives who were pushing for the "nuclear option" are now talking about finding a candidate to challenge DeWine in the May GOP primary. DeWine's son lost in last June's special congressional primary in southwest Ohio; one of the reasons given for his defeat was the senior DeWine's support for the judicial compromise. The Ohio Republican Party has been rocked by scandal over the past year or so, and many in the state GOP on the ballot in 2006 -- including DeWine -- could find themselves in trouble. As for the Alito nomination, DeWine has said it does not "qualify for filibuster material." He has said he would support the nuclear option if the Democrats decided to hold up the nomination.

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4. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) [phone]

Web Form: lgraham.senate.gov/index.cfm?mode=contact

A conservative, Graham is willing to criticize his party elders and reach out to Democrats, which reminds many of John McCain, whom he endorsed for president in 2000. Graham and DeWine are the only members of the Gang of 14 who are on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Like DeWine, Graham has said the Alito nomination does not warrant a filibuster.

[Wordie]

5. John McCain (R-AZ) [phone]

Web Form: mccain.senate.gov/index.cfm?fuseaction=Contact.Home

McCain's determined effort to work with Democrats in forging compromises may be one of the reasons he is not especially popular with GOP leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. The once-and-likely-future presidential candidate is a media favorite whose pronouncements always receive maximum attention. But as one prominent conservative said, "liberals and media types" don't vote in Republican primaries; Republicans do.

Some view McCain's participation in the Gang of 14 as a "betrayal" that they plan to use against him during his likely presidential bid in 2008. While he has long been looked on nervously by Bush supporters, McCain is wildly popular at home, having won won a fourth term in 2004 with 77 percent of the vote. McCain has described Alito's record as "one of a thoroughly experienced, capable and principled jurist and lawyer who has dedicated his professional life to public service."

[Wordie]

6. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) [phone]

Web Form: snowe.senate.gov/contact.htm

Snowe was one of the most vocal opponents of limiting the right to filibuster, declaring that if it came to a vote, she would side with the Democrats. She is a pro-choice moderate who voted for John Roberts (as did every other Republican). Snowe is up for re-election this year.

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7. John Warner (R-VA) [phone]

Web Form: warner.senate.gov/contact/contactme.cfm

Warner is much closer to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist than McCain is, but he never supported the move to make it more difficult to mount a filibuster. He worked especially close with Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), another Gang of 14 member, to work out the compromise. A leading Senate figure in the decision to publicize the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal, Warner has said he hopes the group will play a "pivotal" role in the Alito confirmation process.

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8. Robert Byrd (D-WV) [phone]

In arguing against the nuclear option, Byrd saw himself as a guardian of Senate procedure and custom. But some Republicans say that as majority leader in the 1970s and '80s, Byrd also changed rules to suit himself and his party. Still, John Warner credits Byrd's participation as one reason why the compromise came about. Byrd voted to confirm Roberts. First elected to the Senate in 1958, Byrd is seeking a ninth term this year; he is unlikely to work up a sweat in winning it.

[Wordie]

9. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) [phone]

Web Form: inouye.senate.gov/webform.html

Inouye was the only member of the group to vote against John Roberts for chief justice. Most media reports indicate that Inouye has not had much of an influence among the 14; there has been speculation that he was added to the group at the last minute in order to make sure there was an equal number of Democrats and Republicans.

[sundancekid]

10. how do we keep 41 votes??? so far, the math holds a mere shred

of filibuster hope::

1. all Dems hang together (fat chance) except for the announced anti-filibuster of Nebraska Nelson, Pryor and (not-so-fine)Finestein

2. a couple more Dems lose their constitutional minds, but Snowe and Collins and Chafee ride in on their white chargers and offset a possible Landrieu-Lieberman defection

3. Robert Byrd issues his seminal speech on the overreaching of the executive and delivers the most persuasive and democracy-saving constitutional stirrings that none can escape (we get 44 votes of our very own - yes, I have seen lightning strike twice, thank you)

4. anybody see a fourth one????

[Wordie]

16. Well, theres a relatively new thread that says Lieberman is now

considering a fillibuster, so apparently, anything is still possible at this point. The situation seems fluid still and I haven't heard anything about the Dems meeting today, where they were said to be working out a strategy. It would be helpful to have a list of who plans to vote how, who is immovable, and who is considered to be at least approachable on the issue. That's why I wanted to post this list. Do you know what the breakdown is, as it stands now?

[LynneSin]

17. I've read the same about Lieberman

say what you will about the guy he's extremely pro-choice and I think we'll get him for the filibuster.

We just need three from that group and I'm thinking that Byrd and Inouye are the other two!

[Wordie]

18. For great strategy for approaching Byrd, by GrpCaptMandrake, link here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x180564

[Wordie]

11. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) [phone]

Web Form: landrieu.senate.gov/contact/index.cfm

Within days after the Gang of 14 announcement reaching a compromise on judicial nominees, Landrieu and Byrd were the only Democrats to vote to confirm the previously filibustered Priscilla Owen to the U.S. Court of Appeals. Landrieu narrowly won re-election in 2002 and has charted a fairly moderate course in the Senate. She voted to confirm Roberts.

[Wordie]

12. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) [phone]

Web Form: lieberman.senate.gov/contact/index.cfm?regarding=issue

Lieberman has a history of showing a willingness to reach across the aisle and work on compromises with Republicans; that's one reason why Al Gore picked him as his running mate in 2000. Lieberman continued that tradition by voting to confirm Roberts to the Supreme Court. But lately, this willingness has alienated many of his fellow Democrats -- especially concerning his endorsement of President Bush's handling of the Iraq war. Some in Connecticut are talking about finding a liberal challenger in the Democratic primary this year, when Lieberman runs for a fourth term.

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13. Ben Nelson (D-NE) [phone]

Web Form: bennelson.senate.gov/contact/email.cfm

As one who is philosophically opposed to the filibustering of judicial nominees, Nelson was the leading Democrat pushing for a compromise from the start. Not long after the compromise was reached, Nelson was the lone Democrat to vote to confirm Janice Rogers Brown to the U.S. Court of Appeals; Brown had been one of the judges whose confirmation was held up by a filibuster. Nelson also voted to confirm John Roberts to the Supreme Court. A conservative Democrat in a very conservative Republican state, Nelson has scared away most top GOP challengers in his bid for a second term this year.

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14. Mark Pryor (D-AR) [phone]

Web Form: pryor.senate.gov/contact/

Pryor seems to be following the same centrist path as his father, David, who represented Arkansas in the Senate for 18 years and was known for his moderate voting record. When Mark Pryor was elected in 2002 -- by defeating Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson -- he was somewhat vague on the issues. But he has since cast his lot against gun control and certain abortion measures. Pryor voted to confirm Roberts.

[Wordie]

15. Ken Salazar (D-CO) [phone]

Web Form: salazar.senate.gov/contact/email.cfm

During his 2004 campaign, when he won his first Senate term, Salazar criticized his fellow Democrats for holding up Bush's judicial nominees. Salazar voted to confirm Roberts. Like his Republican colleague Snowe, Salazar said he was concerned about Roberts' rulings (particularly regarding affirmative action) but saw no reason for a filibuster.

[realFedUp]

19. Snowe and Collin's votes will be important to note

I don't think women in their states will
have much understanding if they vote for Alito.

[radio4progressives]

20. I've just placed calls to Graham's, Snow's, Collins, Lieberman's & Byrd's

offices. I also called Feingold's office earlier this morning.

It's really hard calling Republican offices, especially Senator Graham's because of his statements during the confirmation hearing.

But speaking with the Staffer, i expressed my respect for Senator Graham's passion and committment to matters that impact our country, such as the torure amendment, putting mattes of principle concerning our constitution and country first, above and beyond loyalty to party. I also mentioned that I heard him committ to voting for his confirmation, but I urged that he re-think his position and put our constitution over loyalty to the president. I also mentioned that this isn't about liberals vs conservatives, democrats vs republicans and to consider if the next Democrat was elected as president, would he want a Democratic President to have those kinds of powers? With Judge Alito, that would certainly be the case... so i put the fear of a democrat with the power to listen in on his calls and read his emails with out accountability in the mix of things to consider.

Perhaps it could be better articulated, but shouldn't that the essential point in our opposition to Alito after all?

[radio4progressives]

21. oh by the way.. I'm a bit worried about Senator Byrd's vote

Staffer didn't know how he was going vote, but that i should keep in mind that West Virginia is a Conservative state.

I made my argument similar to that as described with my call to Senator Graham's office.

[radio4progressives]

22. People please call these Senators.. their phones are not busy

and i'm really really worried.

Urging everyone please call, the numbers are right there without having to open each post - and when you call will you please report back.

i've called a few:

Graham
Byrd
Snowe
Collins
Ben Nelson
Joe Lieberman
Chaffee

I'll continue, but I need to know others are doing this list too.

[RFKHumphreyObama]

23. Information

Ben Nelson has stated that he'll vote for Alito. Unless Reid or someone else is able to persuade him to reconsider, he'll do as he stated

Graham was thought to have coached Alito before the hearings and lobbed him some soft questioning during the hearings. Read this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsey_Graham#Alito_Confirmation_Hearings
:puke: :puke: :puke: :puke:

He's also on record somewhere (my apologies, no links) as saying that he approved of Alito's appointment, would vote to confirm Alito and would consider supporting the nuclear option if Dems filibustered. So I doubt very much we can count on him

And don't forget Lisa Murkowski (AL), Arlen Spector (PA) and Gordon Smith(OR). While not members of the Gang of 14, they are nevertheless considered to be moderate to liberal Republicans and may be open to at least voting against Alito. Murkowski also refused to commit to supporting Frist's nuclear option last year

ON EDIT: According to Wikipedia, Spector has stated that he'll be voting for Alito :puke: But it may be still worth lobbying him just in case he's open to reason

[McCamy Taylor]

24. Most of them are closed now. Got through to a few.

[Neil Lisst]

25. IMO, we can't win the floor vote, we have to win the cloture vote

If we have 41 who will filibuster and vote against cloture, I think we can win the "nuclear" option when the pubs advance it. The problem is the pubs on the gang of 14 may vote against Alito on a floor vote, but they won't vote against cloture. Namely Chafee, Snowe and Collins, all of whom appear to be taking the coward's way out.

[Wordie]

26. Does Frist really have the votes needed for the nuclear option?

That's another question I've seen little attention paid to. Would there be that many Republicans willing to give up the fillibuster?