WSJ: Webb leads Miller (VA Senate)

[AlecBGreen]

Potential Senate candidate James Webb leads Harris Miller according to the Wall Street Journal. Here are the results:

Allen (R) - 49.3%
Webb (D) - 38.3%

Allen (R) - 50.1%
Miller (D) - 36.0%

MOE: +/- 3.2%

This is all within the margin of error, but this is a good sign for several reasons. #1) Allen is polling at or below 50%, NOT good news for a first term incumbent. #2) He has steadily declined since polling began in August. He has lost 4 points, Webb has gained 2. #3) Allen is being tied to Abramoff and I highly doubt his numbers will go up any time soon. #4) Virginia is trending blue, with major Democratic wins at all levels of state government.

With Webb as our candidate, we have a real chance at picking up this seat. Allen has near universal name recognition and yet he is barely treading water. Webb, an uknown, unannounced potential candidate is gaining ground and currently beating the announced candidate, Harris Miller. If Webb does run, he will be infinitely more appealing to VA voters than Harris Miller. Consider this: Miller (to the best of my knowledge) has never held political office, promoted outsourcing and offshoring jobs, and has lobbied for Diebold. He has no military experience, and would undoubtedly support CAFTA and other similar measures. In every sense he is an "inside-the-beltway" candidate. Webb served as Secretary of the Navy and is a highly decorated veteran of the Vietnam War. He advised against the invasion of Iraq in 2002. Virginia has the largest naval base in America, some of the biggest commercial ports, and is home to numerous veterans. Webb would undoubtedly work hard to keep those jobs and bases up and running. He is outspoken and does not mince words, in other words he could be a Hackett-style candidate.

Who do you think would have a better chance of beating Allen? If you think Webb would be a better candidate and eventually a better Senator, please sign this petition and urge him to run. Thanks!

-Alec

p.s. See Raising Kaine for more. And FYI, Warner would beat Allen 49 to 32.

[TheVirginian]

1. As much as I want to see a competitive race in Virginia

I want to note a few things that I have seen differently than you, specifically in your assessment of the race against Allen:

1) Rasmussen currently has Allen's favorability rating at 70%, so I'm not sure how much faith I have in a 49% polling number in an unofficial race.

3) I don't know if Allen's numbers will go up anytime soon, but his ties to Abramoff are as loose as many other Senators, including most Democrats. I don't think there's a plausible way to net Allen specfically into the Abramoff scandal.

and 4) While Virginia has voted in two Democrats as Governor in the last two elections, its a stretch to say the Democrats won at all levels of state government, when you look at the House of Delagates, the Lt. Governorship, and the Attorney General.

I do say that James Webb is a better candidate than Harris Miller, and has an outside chance of knocking off Allen (compared to the zero chance that Miller has). Maybe I'm just a pessimist, though, but I don't see Allen as vulnerable.

[AlecBGreen]

4. good points

Havent seen that Rasmussen poll. The WSJ has Allen at around 50% vs Miller and Webb, and he has dropped every month since his August high of 55% while Miller and Webb have gained.

You are right about the Abramoff connections being loose. However he cant say that "my hands are clean" on this issue. It is something that either Dem candidate could use to their advantage. Tie him in with the national "Culture of Corruption" theme. Having been a lobbyist I dont think Miller could leverage this as well as Webb.

As for the wins at all levels of gov't I was talking about the recent elections. Kaine won a come-from-behind election (handily, I might add). We have picked up seats in the General Assembly and we won 2 special elections since November - Shannon Valentine in Lynchburg and Bolling in SWVA. We have another one coming up in Loudon County (a traditional RW district) and it looks like we will take it. Point is, VA is a red state that is clearly trending Dem. Our red areas are shrinking and the blue areas (NOVA) are growing.

"I do say that James Webb is a better candidate than Harris Miller, and has an outside chance of knocking off Allen (compared to the zero chance that Miller has). Maybe I'm just a pessimist, though, but I don't see Allen as vulnerable"

I agree ... sort of ;) Miller has ZERO chance of winning while Webb, at best, has 50/50 odds. If he runs hard, has a clear message and shows VA voters for the utter failure that Allen is, he CAN win.

-Alec

Larissa - Miller is the Diebold guy

[snowbear]

2. Which one is the Diebold guy?

Sorry.. I get my Virginia senate candidates mixed up sometimes..

[Gloria]

3. Miller is the Diebold guy. Wes Clark is supporting Webb, from what

I undestand.

[Stinky The Clown]

5. I'm hopeful for my neighbors in Virginia.

Virginia was the first southern state to go from 'solid South' Dem to Repub back in the day. They're the region's trend setter. And the trend now does seem to be swinging our way just a tad. To be sure, it is still just an early glimmer of hope, but a glimmer nonetheless.

I like this Webb guy. I heard him speak on teevee a few times and he strikes me as credible, believable, no-shit kinda guy. No a word mincer like the too-long-in-elected-office set.