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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 02:10 PM
Original message
Would you do all of this & make no move to control the counting of votes ?
This is my own personal opinion.

There seems to be a group that thinks the "Exit polls said Kerry WON" argument is weak. That the studies show something happened, but it probably wasn't machine fraud, or the Inside HACK, if you will.

Another group thinks that the Exit poll studies show fraud, period.

I have listened to this debate continue for months, nearly a year. But let me backtrack. I was recruited for the Kerry campaign by Ted Carter-- from the national office, he was Clinton's '96 director of field operations. I told Ted "In my gut- Kerry should win-- an Incumbent gets his may/june approval rating in Nov. SO Bush is at 44%, throw in 1% for 3rd party votes and Kerry gets 55%. What got me the job offer, was my overall sheer brilliance-- LOL- and the above statement on Approval ratings, and "in a legal and fair election Kerry will win by 10%." Of course the response was-- "Who said it would be fair & Legal?". I spent the month of October in Broward County Fl. When I came home to NJ on Nov 3rd, I dove into the internet and joined DU. I wanted to learn about these computerized machines.

I think the election of 2004 was stolen by multiple means. I think Machine fraud was part of the "Solution".

Harry Hurstis Diebold opscan hack in Leon county Fl. Its the inside hack. This system allows for the inside hack, and actually has better protection against the outside hack. It seems that many other DRE & optical scan systems have a similar design. The design that allows the inside hack to be easier than the outside hack maybe a coincidence, but it has to be considered.

I discussed this with Rebecca Mercuri in the spring of 2005. I asked her about the Architecture of computerized voting machines, it seemed to me that they were designed for the inside hack, she agreed. I asked her about the so called redundancy for date storage, that it seemed to be one input going in, 2 coming out. Vendors claimed that redundancy was a good thing, it was like reconciling your check book. And this argument seemed counter intuitive to me. A Checkbook has 2 inputs, debits and credits. And that DRE redundancy was not the same. I then asked Rebecca if this was like an accountant having 2 sets of books. YES, it is. Does the entire DRE industry have to be designing equipment like this? the answer was no.

Since those heady days right after the 2004 election I have learned a bit more.

1) PCMCIA card slots for removable media (memory cards & such). These cards allow for executable commands to be inserted into a computer. Think DREs & Optical scanners for paper ballots..

2) I know of one smaller vendor who uses CD-ROMs to load the ballot into the Touch screen voting machine (DRE). The DRE then burns a new CD_ROM with the end of election vote totals. This method seems to be far more secure, and takes one step away from the "Inside Hack Architecture".

3) To be fair, redundancy is performed the same way on a typical PC. But the backup of data is not transparent because of the Proprietary software used. One would be allowed to open up a lever machine and look at the vote counting mechanism, but we can't look at the vote counting mechanism of a DRE.

Since the Election of 2004, we have seen an attempt to consolidate massive Executive Power in the White House.
-WE now know that the Bush regime lied about WMDs.
-WE now know that the Bush regime wants chaos in Iraq, to steal.
-WE now know that the Bush regime has historical ties to prior attempts to remake the USA into a fascist state.
-WE now know that the Bush regime wants to take US citizens off the street and make then disappear.
-We now know that the Bush Regime tried to cover up spying on American citizens.
-WE now know that there is a considerable body of evidence that 9-11 was at least LIHOP.
-And it may be that the OBL tape released before the 2004 election, and this weeks tape, were computer generated, not OBL.
-WE now know that the Bush regime plans are outlined in PNAC documents.

Would you do all of this and make no move to control the counting of votes?



I apologize if I misrepresented anyones opinion in any way.

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Village Idiot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Most fail to realize that the same machines from 2004...
will be used to count votes in 2006 and 2008.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. IMHO more of the same machines
Edited on Fri Jan-20-06 02:43 PM by FogerRox
now that the HAVA money has been spent, if you didnt already -- you know have new machines for 2006.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
3. OK, let's unpack this.
You are asking, in effect:

IF the Bushies are as corrupt as they now look and
IF the machines are as hackable as they look -
THEN surely they must have hacked em.

So to take it piece by Bayesian piece:

Yes, I think it is 90% certain that the Bushies are as corrupt as they look
And I think it is maybe 50% certain that at least some of the machines are as hackable as they look

- got to 45% probability so far)= -

And I think it is maybe 50% they would have tried to hack them

- down to 22.5%

Which is still substantial, and I'll regard that as my prior for the next bit:

What proportion of precincts are we talking about that have hackable machines?
How many kinds of hack are we talking about?
Are we talking about hacks in key states? Diebold states? All states? Convenient states?
Are we assuming that they would have included NEP precincts or not?

Before I go further I'd like some input on those questions.

Because my other prior is that the exit poll evidence (the good old swing shift non-correlation, the one Kathy Dopp claims to have demonstrated is BUNK, but which I think is perfectly valid), together with other evidence suggests that:

Fraud must have been fairly uniform (which is hard to postulate if it depends on a particular technology);
and/or it must have been programmed in such a way as to kick in only when Bush was doing badly, relative to expectations.

Or, alternatively, that the hackers avoided the NEP precincts, in which case we have no real prior as to the magnitude of the fraud.

So I haven't really laid it out in a very systematic way, as I don't know what our priors are here.

If you can fill me in on your assumptions, and on what you think is possible, I'll come back in to bat.
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marions ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I follow you
Edited on Fri Jan-20-06 03:43 PM by marions ghost
but I don't get why you would estimate a 50% probability that they would have tried to hack machines.
How about --there was a 100% probability that they would try to hack, with a 50% success rate?

I say it was done by several operatives in synch with the voting machine companies, in vulnerable states having compliant insiders and a general culture of corruption, taking place in both Republicon and Dem precincts, primarily with the central tabulators used to make the most significant adjustments. As far as the reports of DRES changing votes for Kerry to Bush, that would seem to be a little glitch embedded in that particular Republicon-controlled secret software.

I believe that many people on the inside of the election process KNOW that this electronic tampering was done, but since they actually didn't DO it, they can afford to look the other way. And they are taking great pains to look the other way, as we are talking about crimes here. (But election crimes are almost never prosecuted).

Not being a statistician I also don't get why it would matter whether the manipulated precincts were NEP precincts (where exit polling was done), or not. I thought the assumption was that exit polling is an accurate reflection of a much larger trend.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Well, you can plug in your own priors
But the point is that people tend to add probabilities to make a point, and often the more legitimate method is to multiply them.

Re your point "I thought the assumption was that exit polling is an accurate reflection of a much larger trend." - you are right, that is a very widely held "assumption". My own view is that it is not supported by a specific, and fairly recent analysis, which I wrote about here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=398267

And it puts substantial constraints on the distribution, magnitude and type of fraud that could have produced that pattern, IMO.

But I have sympathy with the view that opportunistic fraud occurred all over the place. It's the scale I have most difficulty with.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. would have the provisional ballot user
been counted with the rest of the voters in an exit poll?
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Yes
So that probably contributes to some of the redshift. How much you could only estimate by doing regressing redshift on some measure of provisional ballot allocation and rejection.

I believe ESI looked at it in some detail in Ohio, and concluded, given the numbers, that it wasn't a major issue there. I am sure it was a major issue in certain counties (Cuyahoga for instance) but remember the poll is only 49 precincts statewide. Even two NEP precincts in Cuyahoga wouldn't be enough for stats.

But it surely cost Kerry votes.

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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. there was a thread a while ago, started by landshark
and we all saw how IF the hackers knew where the exit polling occured, and avoided those precincts, then it would be basically impossible to detect the hack with the exit polling.

But this speaks to the scale of the scheme, and the bigger the scheme the more problematic it becomes.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-22-06 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #8
42. Well, if they did that
their precinct selection would be off.

It was one things the E-M report investigated. Was the vote count from the NEP precints representative of each state as a whole. If fraud was only in non NEP precincts, the state would have been redder than the sample. Mostly the samples were pretty good, and the mean error, though tiny, was a slight blue-shift (NEP precincts slightly more pro-Bush than the state.

It is why they located the "error" to precinct level. The source of the discrepancy turned out to be between the raw precinct responses and the raw precinct vote counts.

So avoiding NEP precincts won't actually be undetectable with exit polling. It will put the exit polls off, and show up when the pollsters compare the NEP precinct counts with the state counts.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. well
Edited on Fri Jan-20-06 04:15 PM by FogerRox
Yes, I think it is 90% certain that the Bushies are as corrupt as they look

You wouldnt choose 100%?


And I think it is maybe 50% certain that at least some of the machines are as hackable as they look

From http://www.electiondataservices.com/VotingSummary2004_20040805.pdf

opscan systems Identical to, or similar to, the Diebold, used in the Harry Hursti hack-

................units....% of precincts
AIS optical scan ... 2,527 % 1.39
Optech ............... 251 % 0.14
Optech II .............253 % 0.14
Optech III-P........ 1,098 % 0.61
Optech III-P Eagle...9,665 % 5.33
Optech IV-C .........1,208 % 0.67
Model 100 .......... 2,195 % 1.21
Model 115 ...........1,186 % 0.65
Model 150 .......... 1,806 % 1.00

For 11.14% of precincts.

Diebold TS DRE-

AccuVote-TS ........ 9,450 % 5.22

ES&S, known to share much with the TS, and is networked w/mainframe via modems, during voting:

Votronic ........... 3,911 % 2.16
iVotronic..............666 % 0.37

for another 7.75%, for a total nearly 19% of precincts that fall into the catagory of been there done that.

Both the Sequoia Edge and Advantage use PCMCIA cards, though they have not undergone a hack.

Add another ............6.53..... qualified though. Thats over 25% of systems used in 2004 that are known to be hackable or might be.

Known to be hacked-18.89%
could be hacked.....6.53%

Since nearly all DREs I know of, use removable media-- it could be as high as 25.42% of precincts could be hacked via DREs. But then I would have to say the same for opscans. 36.21%of precincts used opscans in 2004. SO the worst case scenario is over 61% hackable in 2004. To say nothing of punchcards being tabulated by computer. All in all about 85% of the vote in 2004 was counted by computer.
-

And I think it is maybe 50% they would have tried to hack them

My scenario claims 100%


What proportion of precincts are we talking about that have hackable machines?
Worse case -- 61%.
How many kinds of hack are we talking about?
All inside hacks via removable media.
Are we talking about hacks in key states? Diebold states? All states? Convenient states?
I have no clue.
Are we assuming that they would have included NEP precincts or not?
I have no clue

Before I go further I'd like some input on those questions.

Because my other prior is that the exit poll evidence (the good old swing shift non-correlation, the one Kathy Dopp claims to have demonstrated is BUNK, but which I think is perfectly valid), together with other evidence suggests that:

Fraud must have been fairly uniform (which is hard to postulate if it depends on a particular technology);
and/or it must have been programmed in such a way as to kick in only when Bush was doing badly, relative to expectations.


Generally speaking I think the states where the Election process is deeply controled by the faithful, would my 1st guess as to the scene of the crime, if you will.

on edit-

Its not that the machines look hackable-- they are, that is proven, what isnt proven is the scale of hackability.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. No, I wouldn't go 100%
in that I think they are 100% corrupt on at least 50% of issues, but I tend to the view that people go into politics out of some sense that they are right, not simply greedy, and that people mark out moral territory - areas where they don't go, areas where they do. Wasn't Hitler a vegetarian?

So I am not 100% sure that they would actually hack an election, although I am more sure that they would corrupt it, possibly under the moral cover of "preventing voter fraud". Or even preserving "moral values" from the immoral.

I know people who will gladly photocopy personal stuff on the office copier, but who would baulk at stealing a stamp.

Re machines: I was crude - some of the machines are clearly hackable, but how? Remotely? in advance? On the day? What percentage of machines could be realistically hacked? How clever could the algorithm be - because if you are postulating theft of 3 million votes (TIA is up to 7 million I think - or maybe it's half of those numbers if votes are switched) then it is rather remarkable that so few egregious anomalies have come up. You may laugh, but to avoid more major slip ups, if the hack was as widespread as postulated, seems pretty clever.

So I'm not going higher than 50% on that, and originally I was down at 30% but I thought I might get flamed.

As for your last point - believe it or not, one strong correlation, found by both me and TIA (possibly the single point on which we agree) is that there is a strong correlation between blueness and redshift. Exit polls were redder in blue states. Which is odd.

I'll keep thinking. Interesting post.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. on a tangent- these families, generally speaking have done this
The Bush & WAlker clans go back 140 years with these nefarious plots. Here is an over view-

Spanish American War, blowing up of the Battleship MAINE.

WW1 Prescott Bush in MI5, as an american US Army infantryman.

1933 attempted coup on FDR, Re: Smedley Butler

1933 sold and shipped Remington rifles to Germany, brownshirts marched after the firebomb of the Reichstag with Remington rifles.

Prescott sat on board of Harriman while he sold 1/3 of Germany's rolled plate steel to Hitler. This is armor for battleships and tanks.

IBM sold punch card system to keep track of JEws in camps

GM built the Opel plant that built Panzer tanks.

Prescott sat on the board of a company that owned 1/3 of the sugarcane plantations in Cuba, until Castro nationalized them.

DCI Dulles had dinner with his successor after Bay of Pigs, and Prescott. Dulles last day as DCI.

GHWB owned Zapata Offshore-- oil rigs with Eavesdropping distance to Cuba, prior and during Bay of Pigs. Zapata provided non military items in support of the Bay of Pigs.

GHWB was in France making deal w/Iranians for the October surprise (Hostages for Arms), this has been written on by IIRC James Sic, more recently corroborated by the Russian KGB after the fall of the USSR.

Thats just off the top of my head. The Gilded Age of the late 1800;s and the Roaring 20's, are a direct result of these families influence.

So the historical precedent is intact. They play for keeps, no holds barred. Modis operendi, for 140 years, is to play hard & Win.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. the probability stuff is too "meta" for me right now
Edited on Fri Jan-20-06 07:56 PM by OnTheOtherHand
I agree, it's not a slam dunk that the administration would try to hack the election. I would not venture a probability. Either it happened or it didn't (although the specifics of "it" could be important!).

But by the time we are reduced to discussing whether Bush -- or anyone else -- "would have" done this or that, the horse is already out of the barn. (And besides, I have spent enough time fending off the assertion that my position depends on trusting Bush's good intentions.)

I want to know what did happen in 2004, and what might happen in future elections, and how to stop any bad things from happening. Pretty simple. ;) Maybe that's why I spend less time on GD/P -- I find the empirical questions bewildering enough.

FWIW (as I think you know), I don't think there was widespread vote-count fraud in Ohio on DREs and op-scans unless it was also on punch cards in similar proportions. All that seems like a stretch to me. That view isn't based on the exit poll data, it's based on the election returns. There may be a hole in Mebane & Herron's analysis big enough to drive tens of thousands of votes through, but I don't see it. (Similarly, I don't think there was widespread vote-count fraud nationwide, although there may've been in some state or another.)

Also, I share your sense that the machine hack scenarios are awfully vague. It sort of reminds me of the old jokes about the math professor saying "and through a trivial derivation" when the fact is that he has forgotten the next three steps. (This doesn't mean that I trust the machines, just that I'm frustrated that the discussions always seem to spiral off into the fog before the testable hypothesis emerges.)

(Edit to remove accidental emoticon)
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marions ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. In Ohio
according to the map in post #12-- MOST Ohio counties had punch-card voting, with a handful of opti-scan counties (centralized type). So hacking of machines in Ohio would most likely be done at the central tabulators. It matters more where and how the votes are COUNTED, even if an older technology is used by the voter.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. IIRC ohio in 2004 had
something like 40 counties opscan, 44 Punch and 4 DRE.

SO Widespread fraud in DREs is obviously not widespread, as far as looking at the state of Ohio. IIRC the recount era-- TRIAD did the tabulation of punch cards.

SO yes-- if ohio was the scene of widespread fraud- it - I think- would have been tabulator fraud.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #19
24. the catch is that it probably couldn't be just tab fraud, either
Edited on Sat Jan-21-06 09:11 AM by OnTheOtherHand
Enough of Ohio wasn't punch card that if you hacked punch cards and nothing else, the punch cards would tend to stand out. But of course it depends on how many votes one wanted to steal. It looks to me like about 70% (a bit more) of 2004 Ohio votes were on punch cards, with most of the rest split pretty evenly between DREs and op-scan. Stealing one percent of the punch-card vote obviously is more useful than stealing one percent of the other vote.

(EDIT: I meant to add, then wandered away in a sleepy stupor -- this argument works in Ohio in 2004 because of the mix of technologies. Many other states, such as North Carolina, had varied technology mixes. But it will not always be so. Georgia is rapidly slipping beyond the reach of this form of analysis, because it will have been a DRE monocrop for too long. This isn't to say that any and every form of fraud will soon be undetectable there, but the trend certainly makes the forensic work harder.)
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #24
27. Considering the Kerry suit in Ohio
is about the recount, and the Triad mechanical tabs feeding into Computer tabs, and all that-- wasnt Ohio - in the end counted by computer- 100%? Or near to it?
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #27
37. "mechanical tabs feeding into Computer tabs"
Here is the thing that seems fuzziest. In the end, all the election results necessarily "feed into" a computer system. But what specifically do you mean here? Triad counters might (I suppose) have been programmed to flip "x"% of votes from Kerry to Bush, but it would only work well if one could (1) hack every other form of voting/counting equipment with more or less the same value of "x," and (2) really totally trash the 3% recount in every county. On the recount front, there's just a difference of opinion so far. When I read the recount reports, I see lots of procedural liberties, but I'm definitely not convinced of crooks at work. I should also note that I haven't seen anyone get into the specifics of how the initial punch card hack would be implemented. Someone may've, but if so, it hasn't gotten much play considering its importance.

At some point, the fraud scenario seems to transmute from being very simple (possibly one programmer) to very complicated (elections officials in almost every county, probably including Democrats, not all of whom are likely to be DINOs), with not much beyond the word "computer" providing continuity. I mean, we've had lots of worries about punch cards in the past, but I didn't think that the fact that they fed into computer tabs was really on the list. Maybe it should have been, and maybe it should be. But if so, then it bugs me all the more that people seem a lot more eager to talk about Diebold DREs, which weren't even in Ohio.

Umm, reread that paragraph as an insight into my tribe. It has nothing to do with blind faith in punch cards, or claiming that fraud has been ruled out. It has to do with our training that when we start with a theory ("the DREs were hacked"), and generate a testable hypothesis ("Bush did better in DRE counties relative to 2000"), and the test comes back negative, and we start adding twists to our theory in order to "save" it ("the punch card counters were hacked too!"), etc. etc., at some point an alarm bell has to go off warning us that we are now trying to mold or spin the data to match our theory, and that isn't in our job description.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. I dont think the scenarios are vague-
-there is a significant portion of voting machines that use portable media. The Diebold TS DRE and Optical scanners have been hacked thru portable media hacks.

SO Rebecca Mercuri is right. Smart cards can introduce commands into said equipment. She has said this for years.

This is the inside hack- performed by a vendor tech or election official/pollworker.

The architecture, Industry wide, is such that the outside hack is actually better protected against, than the inside hack. This should be clear by now. Industry wide, we have a proven avenue of attack that requires the hacker be an insider.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. they aren't vague at the machine level, but...
it's the specific implementation in order to steal a general magnitude of votes without being detectable by analyzing the election returns.

For instance, how many votes could have been stolen in Ohio on DREs and op-scans? (First I added "Diebold," which is raising the bar since there were no Diebold DREs in Ohio in 2004, but obviously that isn't the point -- except, I guess, for people who make a really big deal about Wally O'Dell's statement about delivering the state. But if Diebold DREs are hackable, I certainly won't assume that ES&S DREs aren't!) If you do a lot of it, then Bush will probably do perceptibly better in places that use those technologies than in places that don't.

(Also, if individual pollworkers had to apply the hack, that would be a much more complicated problem than if one BoE employee can do it for a whole county -- or if one programmer can do it for a whole state. It is much more likely, if individual pollworkers have to do it, that some precincts will get hacked and others won't. Of course it is also more likely that the plot will get discovered regardless.)

I don't mean to imply that any of this is impossible, but these are the constraints I think about when I try to figure out whether this actually happened.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
21. TIA is apparently declaring 5 million votes were switched
Half the difference between the 3 million Bush won by, and the 7 million advantage TIA now asserts via his numbers.

Febble makes an hysterical point. In that realm of fraud, the accounts of oddities would be overwhelming, to the point the mainstream media would be swamped. There were 122 million votes. So to flop 2 to 5 million or anything in that margin would be a tremendous percentage, especially since they were theoretically centered in specific vital states. Plus there were other races on those ballots. I have studied the partisan relationship, both to the 2004 presidential numbers and to past trends as well as 2004 pre-election expectation, without a single example of a bizarre result. So any theft must have been uniform to include the other statewide races, yet somehow fitting into established statewide tendencies as well. Remarkable.

Let me emphasize I wish TIA were still here. I seldom agreed with him but the effort is substantial and admirable and his math is excellent, far superior to mine.

However, it needs to be pointed out the back fitted numbers and conclusions he asserts need to be handicapped alongside basic common sense. TIA routinely lacks and blunders in that category. On another site that someone pointed out to me just last night, I noticed TIA disputes the New Hampshire recount numbers, via the clever theory that the New Hampshire vote totals don't align with the rest of New England. I'm dead serious. He actually has a thread listing the vote percentage of the nearby states and concludes New Hampshire must have been altered since it doesn't fit with the huge Democratic tilt of the region. It was extremely tempting to register and post the comparison charts of those states over the past 20 years or so to point out New Hampshire isn't exactly equivalent in its partisanship, but luckily I refrained. That's the type of basic stuff I tried to warn TIA about many times here. Like the undecideds to the challenger rule broken down via various types of races, specifically that challengers who are considered less likable do not receive the typical massive split.

Also, how's that 4th Degree Polynomial doing? The one that asserts Bush will be at 30% approval in February 2006. Huh. Seems like that little topic has been conveniently dropped lately. That's another example of common sense trumping math. I remember posting months ago that no chance the 30% level would be threatened because it required a massive betrayal of Bush's base, the same mindset who think Gore tried to steal 2000 and Bush won every debate from Kerry.

I just wish I could bet on some of this. Like that 4th Degree nonsense, TIA will notice it's more difficult to forecast something that can actually be evaluated with a yeah or nay result, as opposed to wildly proclaiming Kerry really won huge, based on respondents saying they voted for Gore in 2000.

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #21
26. 5 million isn't just TIA
Steve Freeman, in his Philadelphia appearance with Warren Mitofsky last October, said: "Added together, the numbers indicate that Bush received 57 million votes... Kerry's totals... aggregate to 63.5 million votes.... All told it amounts to a discrepancy on the order of 10 million votes." (That is 10 million votes on the margin, which could be accounted for by switching 5 million votes.) Freeman basically uses TIA's argument based on reported 2000 vote.

As you and the estimable Febble indicate, it really does not seem all that easy to hide 5 or 10 million stolen votes. I mean, it might seem easy until one actually sets out to do it. One certainly won't be able to squirrel many away in New Hampshire no matter how anomalous it might be (and as you say, that dog won't hunt anyway).

Interestingly, NEDA has defined away most of the problem you describe by insisting that any analysis that takes past results into account is illogical bunk. No one associated with the group seems to understand what a disastrous move that is. Past returns tend to be very highly correlated with current returns, depending on the races being compared -- for the Ohio exit poll precincts in the ESI analysis, the correlation is over 0.96. And we have data for many, many precincts (potentially any precincts whose boundaries haven't changed). NEDA now says, no, forget all that -- indeed, it is intellectually dishonest to consider past returns. Real Scientists focus just on a few dozen exit poll precincts per state, with all the measurement noise that is bound to be in the exit poll data even on the most ridiculously cheery assumptions. And what does NEDA stand for? National Election Data Archive! It reminds me of my wife's stories about school librarians who actively discourage the students from actually using the books.

Yes, if I could have put money on the chances of Bush's approval rating hitting 30% at any decent odds, I would have gladly run up the home equity line to do it. I suppose Bush might have been caught trying to strangle his wife, or something, but I would have taken that risk.
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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #21
29. Math:
What so many people forget (I do too sometimes and have to kick myself) is that what we do in inferential statistics is fit models. We don't find models that fit (or if we do, we have to make a huge Bonferroni correction, but who the heck is Bonferroni anyway?)

Sure, you could fit massive vote-switching to the exit poll discrepancy, but where's the model? How many votes? Where? Every tenth vote? A few in every precinct? A fixed percentage point on the margin? On all machines? On tabulators? On Diebold machines?

Each of these has an associated model, and that's what we have to fit.

And talking of models - linear fits are all well and good, and occasionally polynomials too (though I'd bet that TIA only ever fits even numbered polynomials to that approval rating plot, because given the big upswing at the left hand end with 9/11, only the even numbered polynomials are going to predict him going down.

The reason we fit something we call a psychometric function in cognitive psychology is that it assumes that there are ceilings and floors to anything we measure, and that the thing is only linearish in the middle. Same goes for approval ratings.

Kathy Dopp, to her credit, just had a serious go at finding a fraud model, and making a prediction about the pattern it would produce in the exit polls. Unfortunately, it seems to predict the opposite pattern to that she and Baiman claim is virtually irrefutable evidence of fraud in Ohio. Other models will predict a different pattern (possibly the one they claim to have found) - trouble is, other things may predict that pattern too.

For months now, I have been hanging around DU soliciting actual testable fraud models, and the irony is that most of them have come from "Naysayers" - or at least skeptics. True believers appear to need testable models like a hole in the head. So we have:

It was DREs! No, redshift was not greater for DREs
It was tabulators! Most redshift was calculated on precinct counts
It was swing states! Swing states were not particularly out of line
It was Republican BoEs! Blue states had more redshift than redstates.
It was concentrated in key areas! But it doesn't correlate with swing to Bush
It was everywhere! But how?

This whole investigation desperately needs some theory. E-M had some testable hypotheses about poll bias, and they tested them. But so far, every fraud hypothesis has come up negative. Anyone got any more?
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eomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-22-06 07:47 AM
Response to Reply #29
41. One thing we know for sure... is that it was not just one thing.
The evidence doesn't point to one single exploit -- it points to a long list of them.

And within that list, some of them may have been fairly significant and some of them may have been less of a factor, relatively. The question of whether the election was stolen by fraud then is a question of whether the list added up to enough to steal the election. The question is not whether any one item on the list stole it alone.

Another thing we know for sure is that there was some amount of DRE vote miscounting. Some amount that is at least > 0.

We have eyewitness reports from voters of DRE vote switching (in Austin, S. Florida and elsewhere) and those reports were switches from K to B in, I think, 95% of the cases. We also have cases of impossible votes counts on memory cards.

So I guess I pick your last choice -- it was everywhere.

And I will answer the accompanying question -- But how? -- with the answer: every which-a-way.

Isn't that what the evidence suggests?

So to me the real question is -- can you test the hypothesis that there was fraud of many different types, each type relatively small and not nearly enough to steal the election alone, but together enough to do the job?

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-23-06 04:54 AM
Response to Reply #41
43. In an attempt to address (not answer!) your last question
- well it depends on each hypothesis.

I test hypotheses for a living - specifically I test hypotheses about what factors contribute to developmental disorders like dyslexia and ADHD. And almost certainly, the answer is "many things" - but we can't test "many things" - we have to make specific predictions and test those. At the moment, I am involved in testing the hypothesis that motivation and methylphenidate have similar effects on the brain mechanisms involved in inhibiting impulsive responses. But the study is proving problematic as the study hypothesis hangs on others: that motivation and methylphenidate DO assist in inhibiting impulsive responses; and that ADHD children have trouble inhibiting impulsive responses anyway (that one is fairly well demonstrated by previous studies, fortunately). But the idea is that we give a lot of children a task in which they have to withhold a response to a stimulus if a stop signal appears. And sometimes we give them points for withholding the response, sometimes we deduct points, and sometimes we don't do anything. We hope that they will inhibit more when they are rewarded/penalised, and that this difference will be greater when they are off medication than when they are on. But if they don't inhibit more in the reward/penalty condition in the first place, we are going to be stuck testing the medication effect.

So to get back to elections: for example: if we think that corrupting DREs is a good way to switch a lot of votes, exit polls (though I don't recommend them as an audit, but you have to use what you've got) should be more off in precincts or counties with DREs. So far, the evidence suggests not, either in 2004 or Ohio 2005 (see Klinkner). That doesn't rule out fraud - it just fails to support the hypothesis that more vote-switching was carried out on DREs than other machines. So we could analyse by vendor, but I am not aware of any analysis of poll results by vendor. I did look at vendor effects in Florida (not by exit polls but by expectations based on party registration, also vote in 2000) and found no vendor effects. There appeared to be machine type effects, but the whole analysis was confounded by the fact that DREs tended to be used in urban areas and optical scanners in smaller and rural areas.

Voter suppression evidence seems to be widespread, but difficult to quantify except by assembling it piece by piece. Examination of residual vote rates in largely Democratic, versus largely Republican precincts should tell you whether more Democratic votes are lost that way. They usually are.

Then there's Richard Hayes Phillips in Ohio, trudging round with his calculator, adding up votes that seem to have gone missing (I think some of his estimates are based on unjustified assumptions, but he's doing a great job).

So there are two issues here: one is to establish what factors were associated with apparent benefit to Bush (and that is difficult to quantify, so using benchmarks like 2000 vote, or pre-election polls, or exit polls, is potentially useful); and the other is to quantify the effect.

Generally, in statistics, it is easier to say whether an effect exists - is "significant" - that A is definitely associated with B, and when A changes, B changes - than to say how big the effect is. We know that men are definitely taller than women, but it is much harder to say how much taller. The reason is simply that for the first question, all we are asking is: is the difference in height between men and women definitely greater than zero? And for the second question we are asking: what are the confidence intervals for the size of the difference? So it's easier to say: yes, there was fraud, than, yes there was fraud of a magnitude to swing the election. I think there was "electoral injustice" in Ohio. I am not sure whether the confidence interval of the size of the loss to Kerry is wide enough to span Bush's apparent winning margin.

You probably know this, of course, I'm really just thinking aloud.

But I am fairly convinced that if the fraud was large enough to swing the popular vote, it must have been multifarious - no lone hacker in Idaho. And ditto if it was large enough to swing Ohio. I find the second easier to believe though, but I think the only answer to "was it large enough?" is to go the RHP route.
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #9
39. What if they recruited gullible people and....
Edited on Sat Jan-21-06 08:47 PM by MissWaverly
told them that they to had to hack the machines to prevent Kerry from stealing the election.
Remember in 2000, they had the news that bush won trumpeted prematurely on dubious results
that were later proved to be incorrect, then when the election was questioned, they
created the illusion that Gore was trying to steal the election which was rightfully his.
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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #3
34. Bush was doing badly in Baltimore, when my machine defaulted
to Bush 5 times, when I pressed for Kerry, I remember Bush having a last minute speech
appealing to the Demorats, and I wondered at that time, since his campaign was to
demonize and exclude democrats, i.e. loyalty oaths at town hall meetings. This was
to explain the swing the Bush in Democratic areas that was planned. The fix was in.
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John Q. Citizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
4. We also know that machines awarded votes to bush that weren't
cast,
we know voter registration was tampered with,
we know long lines were created,
we know the Ohio recount was fixed and compromised,
we know registered voters weren't allowed to cast normal ballots, (as in provisional ballots)
we know the head of the bush campaign was the secrtary of state,

Would you do all of this and make no move to control the counting of votes?

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MissWaverly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #4
40. the fix was in overseas
Edited on Sat Jan-21-06 09:51 PM by MissWaverly
Fooled Again by Mark Crispin Miller

page 256

"some places you have to hand it off to get it faxed because the machine is behind the
counter, at the finance office or personnel support battalion, the sergeant said, "They should have come up with a better, more surefire system." Thus did Bush's Pentagon
pressure soldiers into backing the regime, deciding not to vote at all or forcing
themselves to cast their votes in anguish."

Did we mention once again how Bush supports the troops and how democracy is on
the march in Iraq.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
11. oh by the way-- please: recommend the DAily thread
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
12. maps showing voting machine type, maybe more recent than 2004
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. kick for the after dinner crowd
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-20-06 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
18. kick
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 07:50 AM
Response to Original message
22. Tom (under indictment for campaign corruption) Delay's Congress
set up the "Help America Vote Act" as a $4 billion boondoggle to entice and corrupt local/state election officials to purchase crap-ass voting machines, hackable by a chimpanzee, and actively prevented a paper trail requirement (bottled it up in committee, strong-armed Congressmen to keep if off the floor), with no rules about paper trails, audits or recounts, and a greatly underfunded machine certification commission, no rules about transparency ("trade secret" source code permitted in the voting machines and central tabulators), and no rules about lavish lobbying, partisan ownership of the private corporations that would now take over our elections, or "revolving door employment," so that billions of dollars were poured into the pockets of the major Bush donors who made these machines, and people like Repub Sec of State Bill Jones, after purchasing this crap-ass, hackable voting machinery for Calif, went to work for the company he had bought it from (Sequoia).

The Bush junta SET OUT TO corrupt our election system, thoroughly and permanently, and to gain control over vote tabulation with "trade secret," proprietary programming code, run by Bush's buds at Diebold and ES&S (the main perps). Diebold, whose CEO promised to "deliver" Ohio to Bush in 2004, and its spinoff company, ES&S, initially funded by far rightwingnut billionaire Howard Ahmanson, counted 80% of the vote in 2004. These two related companies--run by the Urosevich brothers--also have similar computer architecture in their voting machines.

It was/is a fraudulent election SYSTEM, quite deliberately set up by Bushites, in Congress and in the electronic systems business, with no controls, in order to be used for election fraud, and specifically to keep Bush in office in 2004.

If they had wanted transparent elections, we would have had transparent elections. It's not rocket science. They put every obstacle imaginable in the way of transparency.

How anyone can look at this election system, and how it was set up, and by whom, and say that there is anything less than a 100% chance that Bushites would steal the 2004 election, with Plan A being electronic fraud, I don't know. Some sort of Pollyanna naivete?

There is one main central tabulator in each state. They are manufactured by Diebold or ES&S, and they, too, have secret, proprietary innards. It would be no problem at all to pre-program these tabulators to switch 3 million to 7 million votes out of 120 million. One third of the country had no paper trail whatsoever. So those votes are NOT recountable AT ALL. In the others, there is a mixed picture of paper trails (can be discarded in favor of electronic results at the whim of election officials) and real paper ballots. More than 99% of these votes received no routine audit (vote compared to electronic result). At best--AT BEST--there is a 1% audit in some places. (And even with a 5% audit, many corrupt precinct totals could go undetected.)

One hacker, a couple of minutes, leaving no trace.

It's my guess that Kerry's win was bigger than expected, thus triggering Plan B, Ohio: Overt, visible vote suppression--by shorting black precincts of voting machines, unfairly challenging voters, etc.--that is quite illegal (Voting Rights Act) and risky, as to lawsuits and riling up the black community. This has led me to surmise that the central tabulators in the general national vote theft had to be preprogrammed to certain percentages, and could not be easily changed on election day itself. Otherwise--with control of the vote tabulation via secret programming--why do Ohio? With Diebold and ES&S shifting small percentages of votes all over the country, mostly via the central tabulators, to manufacture and pad Bush's national popular majority, and with targeted thefts in the closest battleground states, to secure the Electoral College vote, they were able to bring it down to Ohio, where they had to get out down and dirty and physically prevent large numbers of Democrats from voting. (--and there is evidence for this, in unusually low Dem vote turnouts, but high registration, and all the Conyers report evidence).

Exit poll analysis seems to suggest that the wave of vote theft, on the general national level, ran east to west (highest in the east), for any early securing of the popular majority. It also shows high red shifts in 11 battleground states.

The real exit polls (which Kerry won) only reflect the voters who made it to the polling booth. Greg Palast estimates that about 1 million black voters were purged from voter rolls, nationwide, before the election. So it's a good guess that, had all votes been permitted and counted, Kerry won by more than the 3% exit poll margin (more like a 5% margin).

There is a lot of other evidence that points to a Kerry win. I won't go into it here, except to say that an almost entirely non-transparent election system, controlled by Bushite corporations, and deliberately prevented from having audit/recount controls, is the FIRST PROOF OF ELECTION FRAUD, and all other evidence, including the exit polls, is FURTHER CONFIRMATION. It's not that the real exit polls showed a Kerry win in a neutral and normal situation. It's that the real exit polls showed a Kerry win in a highly abnormal election system, deliberately set up to be impenetrable and to conceal evidence. And the same is true for all the other evidence of a Kerry win: that the Dems blew the Repubs away in new voter registration, nearly 60/40, in 2004, that the great majority of new voters, independent voters and former Nader voters, voted for Kerry. Etc. Etc. It all needs to be seen in the CONTEXT of what Tom Delay's Congress and Bush's buds at Diebold and ES&S arranged for.

This election didn't happen on a theoretical plane, where numbers seem to stand alone, as the only thing of importance. It happened in a heavily corrupt political context, where one party methodically sought and obtained control over vote tabulation, using very heavy-handed means, such as denying Democrats all normal power in Congress to bring amendments (such a a paper trail requirement) to the floor. It happened in a context of political bribery and other crimes, and enforced government secrecy, and massive domestic spying, such as we have never seen before in this country. And who knows how these things influenced the installment of this fraudulent election system--for instance, with blackmail of election officials, or generalized fear of the Bush Cartel (Democrats getting anthraxed, for instance, and the perpetrators not pursued)?

The election also took place in a highly corrupt corporate news environment--some of the details of which we are only getting now--for instance, the NYT having suppressed news of the Bush spying program until after the election. But the capper for me is the news monopolies' FALSIFICATION of the exit poll data to force the data to "fit" with Diebold's and ES&S non-transparent results. The exit polls were the best tool we had, in this situation--a situation of non-transparency and political corruption--and we were deprived of that verification check. The scumbag press black-holed information on the election system itself, and who was running it, and how, and then conformed their exit polls to the non-transparent results--and then black-holed or marginalized all discussion and protest afterward, in a rush to get Bush crowned without dissent.

To ignore the context in which this election occurred--and how the election system was set up--is a very grave error, in my opinion. It will inevitably lead to wrong conclusions, and wrong-headed political strategies and remedies.

People who tend to think Bush won will also tend to forget or ignore the fact that 58% of the American people opposed Bush's war from the beginning, back in Feb. '03, before the invasion--even before all the lies were exposed--across the board in all polls. They didn't trust Bush even then. Or they will forget or ignore the fact that 63% of the American people oppose torture "under any circumstances"--May '04, five months before the election. Such people will think it more plausible that maybe Bush won--whereas in the context and these and other such polling statistics, and in the context of a Bushite controlled non-transparent election system, and in the context of Republican bribery scandals and other crimes (rendition of prisoners to eastern Europe, for instance, and the outing of Valerie Plame and her entire counterproliferation network, and massive illegal spying), and in the context of the real exit polls, etc., it not only becomes less and less plausible that Bush won, it becomes clearer and clearer why they set the election system up the way they did. Because they still had a lot of paper to shred and a lot of crimes to cover up before they leave office, if they ever do. They could not afford to hold a transparent election.





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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #22
28. PP-- soooo - its the context in which this election occurred?
just wanted to get your post straight-- LOL- nice post.
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mopinko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #22
31. my only argument with you, pp
is that i think most of the intimidation of black and poor voters was a diversion. and some "good clean fun" for the troops. the discussion would be focused on this overt crap, and maybe no one would notice the rest. plus, it could be quantified, and shown to be insufficient to change the results. what more could you want out of a smokescreen?
other than that- the plan, from the invention of a diebold machine, formerly known for and trusted for their atm's, that could be so easily hacked, was to use it. duh. i say 100% probability that if they could hack a machine, they would. otherwise they went to a hell of a lot of trouble just to get cold feet.
if you want a "model" of republican behavior, it is called the congressional record. i'm sure you could look it over and find that the party is pretty close to 100% corrupt.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #22
32. ''
:thumbsup:
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Jeffersons Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 08:37 AM
Response to Original message
25. what bugs me most about Alabama...
In this ultra-red state where I work for the Democratic Party, we are so poor that our kids literally go to school in trailers or portable classrooms, as they are called. In this poorest of states, which can't seem to muster the funds for a reasonable education, I've learned that we did find funds to buy gleaming new Diebold machines to help with our voting choices.
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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
30. This is our battlefield. Our last stand. If we don't address this issue,
all the strategizing, organizing, great candidates, money - NONE of it will matter. Thanks to all who are fighting the real fight.
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Jeffersons Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #30
36. It is a profoundly important "fight"
No battle in this attack on our traditional freedoms is inconsequential, just as no soldier that marches to defend a legacy of freedom is unimportant. We all have our jobs to do, even humble foot-soldiers like me who burn shoe-leather to educate and register hideously underprivileged voters.
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bear425 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
33. Do we know each other? I worked Oct. '04 in the Kerry office
in Pompano Beach.

At any rate, Election Supervisor Brenda Snipes will be at our Democratic Club meeting coming up. What do you think would be an important question to ask her? I'm planning to give her some information and articles to support evidence of a stolen election. Do you have any suggestions? Thanks for all you do. Feel free to PM me anytime.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. here
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-21-06 07:49 PM
Response to Original message
38. Very well said. The notion that they worked to hard and long to
Edited on Sat Jan-21-06 07:50 PM by bleever
corrupt the electoral system at many levels, but without intent to actually cheat, is not a proposition I've heard anyone defend.

But that is exactly the conclusion one must defend, as Peace Patriot explains above, if they know the recent history of elections and yet deny that * was elected by fraud.

And you don't need numbers to know whether milk is sour or not.
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