The Future... 2012 - 2016?

[nickshepDEM]

I know we need to stay focused on 2006, but its always fun to specualte. Lately there have been a ton of 2008 threads, but lets look even further ahead. Who do you see as the future of the party?

Possible 2012 and 2016 presidential candidates:

*Obama?
*Schweitzer?
*Spitzer?

[baldguy]

1. 1985

W was a drunkard who had failed at everything he tried - but his daddy just happened to be VP.

[Mike Nelson]

2. STILL DRUNK and STILL FAILING

imo...

[Blackthorn]

3. HA. I enjoy your optimism...

By 2008 "elections" will be something that gives aid and comfort to the enemy.

[Telly Savalas]

10. That's right. Let's give up!

[Ian David]

4. The Future? "Soylent Green is people! It's made from people!"

Yell that at anyone who has a Bush sticker on their SUV.

[Ian David]

5. I want to vote for Alan Keyes' lesbian daughter in 2016. n/t

[hopeisaplace]

6. I'm an Obama fan...

great communicator, and potentially a great man.

[Kansas Wyatt]

7. Isn't 2012 suppose to be the end of the world?

Assuming of course, that Dimson fails to accomplish his record paced agenda, like everything else he has done.

[Hippo_Tron]

8. Schweitzer I hope

[Ignacio Upton]

9. What happens in 2012 and 2016 depends on 2008

If we get another four years of GOP dominance, then President BushBot (note, Jeb has said he will not run, but the next Republican POTUS would be a BushBot in terms of the issues) would be the incumbent in 2012. If we win in 2008, then a Democrat will be the incumbent in 2012, and 2016 will be our next open race for the nomination. Real speculating on 2012 or 2016 can't be done until January 20, 2009, however, if I had to choose someone to run in the future, it would be Obama in 2016, mainly because he will only be in his early or mid-50's, roughly the same age Bush was in 1999-2000 and Edwards was in 2004. Schweitzer will be in his 60's, and so will Spitzer (he's still running for Governor this year, how do we know what his political carear will be like in 2016?) In 2012, if someone like George Allen or Bill Frist wins (Allen is the best candidate, since he portrays the "Good Ol' Boy" image that Bush impersonates, thus earning him slightly apolitical but conservative-leaning voters) then Schweitzer could run a populist campaign against them, and possibly make the Mountain West competitive. For 2008, I believe that Wesley Clark or Mark Warner are our best candidates. Personally, I like Feingold, but his divorce from his second wife, and the fact that he is more liberal than the electorate as a whole (don't flame me for this, but this is my personal opinion.) will make it hard for him to win. Biden, Bayh, and any other mealy-mouthed candidate will also fare as badly, as they will play a Bob Dole-like role in the election by not generating decent support from the base, or the electorate as a whole who want dynamic candidates.

[TheFarseer]

11. People like Schweitzer are the future

of this party IMO, or at least they should be. Although I like Obama. I see him as more a moderate than a populist. I don't have any idea who Spitzer is.

[liberalpragmatist]

12. 2012 Will Probably be a Democratic Victory

Whether or not we win in '08, '12 is VERY likely to be a Democratic win. It's rare that any party controls the WH for more than 12 years. So if we lose in '08, we'll probably win in '12 and if we win in '08 then we have better than even odds of getting reelected in '12 since incumbents generally win elections, especially those whose party has been out of power for eight years prior to their first term.

I should qualify that and say that if we have a President McCain in '09, it's more likely that he'd be able to extend GOP control for 16 years, since he's not seen as being a continuation of the Bush presidency and because of his high popularity. Nevertheless, he might be less popular in the political climate of '12 or he might not even run for a second term given that he'll be 77 years old.

As for '12, my guess is it'd be Obama, but Schweitzer and Spitzer are quite possible in '12 as well. And don't forget that there will be new faces who are elected this year who may have a shot, particularly governors. So maybe Tim Kaine. Perhaps if a Democrat wins the Fla. governorship this year, they'd be vaulted to the top tier of candidates in '12. Ted Strickland in Ohio, if he wins. Or Hackett or Sherrod Brown for the Ohio seat in the U.S. Senate. And Claire McCaskill in Missouri could very well be a possibility, at least for VP if she wins a Senate seat. Perhaps Mark Beebe in Arkansas or Duval Patrick in Massachusetts.

Anyway, if we lose in '08, I'd bet very strongly that Obama will be the '12 nominee because it's the logical year for him. He still has a strong chance in '16 and in theory he has a shot in '20 or even '24 although that's REALLY extrapolating quite far and he'd probably seen as too establishment by then - someone whose time has passed.

Keep in mind that if we win in '08, Obama might never actually have the chance to run for President. Let's assume that Obama doesn't run in '08 and let's also assume that he isn't the running mate (which he very well could be); the chances will be better than even that this Dem president will serve 2 terms and in '16, their Vice President will be the top contender for the nomination. It's very difficult to beat an incumbent VP for the nomination. If that nominee loses in '16, then Obama could possibly run in '20, but he'd face longer odds against a first-term Republican incumbent and by that point he'd have been on the political scene long enough that his star may not shine as brightly. And, of course, if that non-Obama VP wins in '16, then Obama's presidential hopes are probably done.