The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline

[Nordmadr]

The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline
by Jerome a Paris

Remember this from this week end?



Only around 50 super-giant oilfields have ever been found, and the most recent, in 2000, was the first in 25 years: the problematically acidic 9-12 billion barrel Kashagan field in Kazakhstan.

(...)

In 2000 there were 16 discoveries of 500 million barrels of oil equivalent or bigger. In 2001 there were nine. In 2002 there were just two. In 2003 there were none.



So we're stuck with the existing supergiant fields we already know. But we're able to squeeze increasing proportions of their oil out, right? Well, up to a point.

The 4 biggest fields on the planet are now in decline, 3 officially.

Jerome a Paris's diary :: ::
Let's start with Cantarell, the jewel of Mexico's Pemex, and the third largest field ever found.



from the Financial Times (15 March 2005, via the Energy Bulletin)

The Cantarell oil field, in the shallow waters of Campeche Bay, is regarded by Mexicans as their crown jewel. It is the second largest oil field in the world by production, behind Saudi Arabia's mammoth Ghawar oil field, pumping 2.2m barrels a day, the same amount as all the Kuwaiti fields together.

For that reason, Mexicans were recently dismayed when Petróleos Mexicanos, the state oil company, said that the field's production would decline this year, signalling a trend towards its depletion.



Pemex now expects production to reach 1.9mb/d in the coming years, and to decline to 1.4 mb/d by 2010. With Cantarell providing close to two thirds of Mexico's production, Pemex needs to replace this ultra cheap oil by much more expensive ultra-deep offshore reserves which it does not have the competences to exploit on its own - and it is forbidden by Mexico's Constitution to invite foreign partners (even 'innocuous' ones like Petrobras, the Brazilian company which has strong offshore experience) to help it. Expect political upheavals in Mexico over this in coming years; in the meantime, prodcution will go down.


More here:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/1/26/9229/79300

Olafr

[hatrack]

1. Don't forget Burgan - Kuwait's largest field, declining since 11/05

And on top of that, there's the ongoing strife about whether or not Kuwait has overstated its reserves by as much as 50%.

[Nordmadr]

2. Burgan is further discussed in the article, as well as Ghawar in

Saudi Arabia. We're about to get a social paradigm shift that the vast majority of world society is completely unprepared for. People will look back and say, "How could they not DO anything?".

Olafr

[mrcheerful]

3. These are oil companies numbers, are you willing to trust oil men to be

honest? Still makes me wonder how close to DeBeers exxon and the rest are. Remember he who controls the resources also controls the numbers being used to price the resources. Unlike trees oil is not something you can see and why are we so trusting that the oil men aren't lying to us? If things are this bad then why isn't oil execs working on being the first to find and market renewable energy sources? I for one do not believe anything oil men tell me as a fact. Remember so far its been the oil companies thats spread the doom and gloom we are running out in order to drive up costs to consumers since 1901.

[MadHound]

4. So the question becomes, what are you going to do about it?

The country, as a whole, is not going to be subject to any great policy or corporate changes to alliviate the effects of this rapidly approaching catastrophe. While the most oily president in our history presides with his oil buddies over an oil government, back home on the range, these people are fully cognizant about the coming crisis and are preparing accordingly. Both Cheney and Bush have outfitted their country residences with state of the art wind and solar power systems, as have many corporate leaders too, all on the sly.

Meanwhile, we the people are going to be left to rot, forced to spend an ever increasing amount of our money on energy, with train approaching ever closer to going off the cliff of no return. There is going to be no government warning, no massive societal changes to stem the tide. While the rich bail, we're going to be left to break ourselves on the shore of Peak Oil, and to be left to fend for ourselves while corporate America will make record profits to the bitter end.

Thus, we have to start fending for ourselves. Three ways that this energy crisis will hit us hard are in food, heat and power for our homes, and transportation. We each need to assess what will work for us. Myself, I have the room to grow a garden large enough to sustain my family, and I'm also fortunate enough to have room for solar and wind alternatives, and can even get into bio-diesel when needed. Everybody doesn't have the physical requirements for all of these alternatives, but we can all do some of them.

I know, I know, all of this is going to cost money, but it is money well spent and if you do it right, it won't be a painful monetary transition. The way to do it is to start with a small purchase that will give you big savings that you can roll into a larger project. For instance, I've got a 52 mile round trip commute, and gas prices started killing me last fall. Therefore, I went out and bought a little Bajaj scooter that goes 55-60 mph and gets 100mpg. I'm taking the money that I'm saving on gas, and will roll it over into an external wood furnace next summer, along with the money I'm saving growing my own food. Once that is in place, I will take the money I'm saving on heating costs and roll that over into a wind turbine for electricity. By rolling these savings over and over into larger projects, within a few years I will be pretty well self sufficient. You can do the same also, it just takes starting with a small investment, and having the discipline to save the savings you realize into a larger project.

Face it folks, we're on our own here, and the only relief that we're going to see what we create for ouselves. And the sooner we can get started, the better prepared we'll be.

[Nordmadr]

5. My wife and I put a purchase offer in on a piece of property just

this past Friday. 75 acres, almost 30 of it wooded with primarily mixed hardwoods. The rest is a farm field that has been transitioning back to it's own habitat for about 5 years.

The property has a year round stream and appears to be well suited for a wind turbine system.

The site is not ideal for passive solar, but it could be implemented as well.

The property does have a major natural gas transmission line running through the property (30 inch diameter)though most of the research I have done indicates that it should be pretty safe as long as se don't go digging it up. The potential blast range for a full bore explosion is a little frightening though, approximately 600 foot radius should it blow up. More than likely it will be empty of any gas in 20 years anyway.

Olafr

[JohnyCanuck]

6. Exponential growth and resource depletion

For anyone who hasn't seen it yet, here's a link to an interesting lecture by University of Colorado Physics Prof. Albert Bartlett on the effects of exponential growth on resource consumption. It's not rocket science people. If you can multiply by two and understand how to figure out percentages you're mathematically equipped to follow along as Professor Bartlett shows how even quite small exponential growth patterns in consumption of any resource leads to a quite massive increase in consumption in much shorter time frames than the non-mathematically aware would intuitively think likely or even possible.

Professor Bartlett in this lecture discusses the impact of exponential growth and the projected impact it will have on demand for oil and coal. Just bear in mind that our capitalist economies are predicated upon perpetual growth and that growth has been fueled to date by cheap and easily accessible supplies of energy in the form of hydrocarbons such as oil and natural gas.


http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram (Real Player format)

Here's another link to an MP4 version playable in Apple Quick Time.

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

Here's a link to Prof. Bartlett's paper "Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis" which was originally published in the late 70's around the time of the Carter presidency and the energy crunch caused by the OPEC embargo.

FORGOTTEN FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ENERGY CRISIS
By Albert Bartlett

INTRODUCTION

The energy crisis has been brought into focus by President Carter's message to the American people on April 18 and by his message to the Congress on April 20, 1977. Although the President spoke of the gravity of the energy situation when he said that it was "unprecedented in our history," his messages have triggered an avalanche of critical responses from national political and business leaders. A very common criticism of the President's message is that he failed to give sufficient emphasis to increased fuel pr oduction as a way of easing the crisis. The President proposed an escalating tax on gasoline and a tax on the large gas guzzling cars in order to reduce gasoline consumption. These taxes have been attacked by politicians, by labor leaders, and by the manufacturers of the "gas guzzlers" who convey the impression that one of the options that is open to us is to go ahead using gasoline as we have used it in the past.

We have the vague feeling that Arctic oil from Alaska will greatly reduce our dependence on foreign oil. We have recently heard political leaders speaking of energy self-sufficiency for the U.S. and of "Project Independence." The divergent discussion of the energy problem creates confusion rather than clarity, and from the confusion many Americans draw the conclusion that the energy shortage is mainly a matter of manipulation or of interpretation. It then follows in the minds of many that the shortage can be "solved" by congressional action in the manner in which we "solve" social and political problems.

Many people seem comfortably confident that the problem is being dealt with by experts who understand it. However, when one sees the great hardships that people suffered in the Northeastern U.S. in January 1977 because of the shortage of fossil fuels, one may begin to wonder about the long-range wisdom of the way that our society has developed.

What are the fundamentals of the energy crisis?

Rather than travel into the sticky abyss of statistics it is better to rely on a few data and on the pristine simplicity of elementary mathematics. With these it is possible to gain a clear understanding of the origins, scope, and implications of the energy crisis.

www.npg.org/specialreports/bartlett_section2.htm