Bush inching up...WHAT A JOKE!

[kpete]

Bush inching up...
by kos
Mon Jan 30, 2006 at 09:53:25 AM PDT
Boy, that press sure wants to talk about Bush "inching" up in popularity. They can't bring themselves to talk about Bush being "unpopular", as it would violate their very carefully constructed media narrative for the guy.

So we get stories about Bush's rebound, and Chris Matthews waxing poetic about how illegal NSA wiretaps are paying off politically for Bush, etc.

But what's the reality? Here are the most recent polls with their respective trend lines:

Time Magazine

1/24-26 11/29-12/1
Approve 41 41
Disapprove 55 53


ABC/WaPo

1/23-26 1/5-8
Approve 42 46
Disapprove 56 52


Fox News

1/24-25 1/10-11
Approve 41 42
Disapprove 51 49


Cook Political Report

1/22-25 12/8-11
Approve 47 50
Disapprove 42 55


LA Times/Bloomberg

1/22-25 1/15-17
Approve 43 54
Disapprove 50 47


CBS/NYT

1/20-25 1/5-8
Approve 42 41
Disapprove 51 52


CNN/Gallup/USA Today

1/20-22 1/9-12
Approve 43 43
Disapprove 54 53


Hotline Poll

1/12-15 12/12-13
Approve 46 50
Disapprove 53 47


So, six out of the last eight polls have shown Bush heading lower. At best, Bush is treading water. So this nonsense about Bush's approval ratings going up is just that, nonsense.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/1/30/115325/736

[gratuitous]

1. I was a little confused on the Kos story

He has Bush going down by the numbers of the Cook Report, but I think he got the numbers flopped, as Kos credits Cook with an "up" arrow for Chimpy's trend line. In any event, of the other seven polls, four of them show Bush's approval numbers going down and two holding even with his "disapproval" numbers going up.

How this translates into the popular media concluding that Bush is "inching up" doesn't compute, except that I think Kos is onto something when he says that Bush's continued unpopularity goes against the approved narrative. You'd think they'd want to make Bush look a little weaker going into the State of the Whatever speech so that when his numbers go up later in the week, they can trumpet the amazing turnaround (Bush approval rating soars to 43%!) and credit it to Chimpy's oratorical mastery.

Atrios over at Eschaton has identified another problem with reporting on the polls, and that is that there is no coherent, consistent measure or interpretation of the polls. Various outlets sample different polls each time, and draw a conclusion based on an ever-shifting set of polls and weighting, ignoring badly worded polls, and pretending that outliers represent a truer measure of Bush's popularity.

[phaseolus]

6. Pollkatz' page is useful

If you're not already familiar with it, take a look at his graphics. Graphs like his, showing many polls' results over time, are probably the only good way to get any meaning out of an approve/disapprove opinion poll. The main problems with polls, as any savvy consumer of information should know, is that the result depends on the wording of the questions, and the sample size introduces an error of a few percentage points. Pollkatz' presentation gets around those issues, showing how it trends over time. A variation of a percentage point or two, in one poll, doesn't tell you $h!t.

Link to his main page -- http://pollkatz.homestead.com/

[liberal N proud]

7. I think it is usually called propaganda

[Jeffersons Ghost]

2. even the lying New York Times

In a recent poll by the NYT over half of America is concerned about the tyrant breaking the law with illegal eavesdropping.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

3. i thought my post minutes ago would KICK your message up

I'll try, try again :kick:

[MADem]

8. Awww, come on, he is INCHING up

The only problem is that his DISAPPROVAL numbers are the ones inching up!!

Par for the course for the lamestream media--they get the story half right!

[Jeffersons Ghost]

4. KICK KICK KICK... why won't this board move up?

:kick:

[MADem]

5. Because so many folks hold these truths to be SELF EVIDENT

...even when the lamestream media ignores the obvious and spins like a crazed Maytag washer.

All you have to do is look around--at paychecks, not keeping pace with costs, at gas prices, your heating bill, your relatives who have lost their jobs, and the ones who have been out of work for so long they no longer can collect unemployment, thus are not "counted." At local taxes, going up; services, going down; crappy schools; disaffected citizenry; kids coming home maimed or dead from Eye-Rack....there's a huge sense of MALAISE in this nation. Everyone has that sick feeling in the pit of their gut, and they have had it for so damn long that it almost feels like normal...that's the saddest part of it all.

Monkey disapproval going up? What do bears DO in the woods, after all!!!!!!

[sendero]

9. There are no inches...

... in polls with a 3%-5% margin of error.

[mark11727]

10. All new and improved * !!! (less sucky than before...?)

:eyes:

[ComerPerro]

11. Wait until he gets to approval ratings within the margin of error

as in, "3% of the people approve of Bush, and 97% disapprove. There is a 3% margin of error".

Watch, it will "shoot" up to 9%, and the media will talk about the "clear mandate" for Bush, because this "rebound" and "bounce back" has tripled his approval rating!

[Jeffersons Ghost]

12. typical

typical of a propaganda machine comer