Charlie Cook: "Democrats do have a real shot at ending the GOP's control"

[Pirate Smile]

Within Reach

By Charlie Cook, National Journal

A year ago, with Republican victories in the 2004 elections still fresh and with President Bush's job-approval ratings still above 50 percent, Democrats' chances of capturing the House looked fairly slim. Today, however, with Bush's approval ratings hovering around 42 percent, the possibility of a Democratic takeover -- although less than 50-50 -- is very real.

Even though House Democrats need a net gain of only 15 seats this November, that task is fairly daunting because the playing field is so small: Few House Republicans are retiring, and few of the Republican incumbents who ought to be vulnerable are in districts that actually are competitive.

Nevertheless, the Democrats do have a real shot at ending the GOP's control of the House. A simple statistical model that Cook Political Report Senior Editor Amy Walter and I developed several years ago suggests that the 2006 House election will be very close.

-snip-
The current model predicts a net Democratic gain of 10 seats. When we factor in a four-seat margin of error, the model projects that as of today, under current conditions, and without speculating about what the national political environment may do between now and November, Democrats will make a net gain of six to 14 seats. With a bit of luck -- or a wave of any size -- Democrats might even grasp their gold ring: 15 seats.
To be prepared to make the most of a wave, if one occurs, Democrats need to recruit strong challengers in states where filing deadlines have not yet passed. They also need, of course, to raise plenty of money.

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0206/020706op.htm

[Captain Hilts]

1. I see him at Tastee Diner, Bethesda. So, it must be true! nt

[populistdriven]

2. 15! 15! 15! 15! 15! 15! 15! 15! 15! 15! 15!

I know, we are a looooong way from our 'gold ring' but only one thing will get us there - party unity and going on the attack with a positive message

every time Rove Bush says 'the democrats are living in a pre 9-11 world' we need a democrat on every single channel saying the same thing:

"Iraq was never part of the 9-11 world so why are we spending $7,000 in Iraq for every US citizen? Because Republicans are stuck in the month of September 2001."

[Pirate Smile]

3. more

"The not-so-secret weapon of the National Republican Congressional Committee in recent elections has been its use of money to rip into Democratic challengers and Democratic open-seat candidates early and often. Early attacks have thus enabled the NRCC to create negative impressions of those contenders before they could define themselves positively.

In the past few campaign cycles, the NRCC had enough money to go on the attack very early and very effectively. The danger for Republicans this time is that while the committee has much more money than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- $19 million at the end of 2005, compared with $15.7 million for the Democrats -- the GOP's resources might not be sufficient to douse all the anti-Republican fires that could erupt around the nation.

Will the GOP have enough money to prevail? That's the question keeping Republican strategists awake at night. "