Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents (9 Repubs and 1 Dem)

[Pirate Smile]

Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents

Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH)
Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX)
Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN)
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA)
Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT)
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM)
Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT)
Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN)
Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL)
Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)

He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/02/16/top_ten_most_endangered_house_incumbents.html

[Ron Mexico]

1. I know few will agree, but I am at the point where I would

gladly accept the reelection of the other eight Repugs in exchange for a guarantee that DeLay gets his smarmy ass bounced out of Washington.

[NMDemDist2]

2. I wonder how Jean Schmidt didn't make the list

I have a feeling she's toast too.

[liberalnurse]

4. Unless Hackett gets

released from his promise by the remaining 2 Democratic candidates by 4 PM today....He won't run. Hackett is the only viable option to beat Jean....thus she is not at risk at the moment.

[liberalnurse]

3. Sherrod Brown gave up his seat.....

D-Ohio......That is wide open now.

[DemNoir]

5. Rob Simmons will be tough to beat

Especially after the Groton,CT sub base was saved. He is a veteran of tough close elections, I dont understand why I keep seeing him on these endangered lists.

People who analyse these races from long distance don't really understand the districts.

[madame defarge]

6. I'm proudly adding...

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) - 10th district...who votes 86% of the time with DeLay...

A survey of likely voters indicates that Congressman Mark Kirk is vulnerable in the 2006 midterm elections to a Democratic challenger. After receiving 64% of the vote in the 2004 elections, currently only 50% say they would vote to re-elect Kirk, less then 1 in 5 say they will definitely vote for him in 2006.

The new poll by Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. shows that after Kirk’s record is outlined, Kirk trails a generic Democratic candidate by 8 points. Despite Kirk’s incumbency, a district that voted for John Kerry in 2004 looks like it could be ready to elect a Democrat for Congress in 2006.

Leading Dem candidate is Dan Seals. Check him out...he's great! http://www.dansealsforcongress.com/

[More Than A Feeling]

10. How accurate are polls that depend on record outlines?

Chuck Pennachio beats Casey after both their records are outlined, but Casey is leading by 65 points in regular polling.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_rob_kall_060127_opednews_com_2f_zogby_.htm

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/13859952.htm

[kentuck]

7. I think there are a lot more - they just don't know it yet...

I have a hunch many, many Repubs will sit out the next election and many Repub Reps will go down.

[Pirate Smile]

9. Nussle is running for IA Gov. His district voted for Gore and Kerry.

It should flip to a Dem seat but that is an open seat now and this is just a list of people running again who could be in trouble.

[More Than A Feeling]

8. Charlie Melancon (D, LA-3)

Who knows what that district is like now, thanks to Hurricane Katrina?

[Warpy]

11. Only a filthy dirty election that disenfranchised 17,000 people

sent Heather Wilson (R-fascist cow) back to the House.

I don't think anything short of the kind of massive fraud that starts revolutions will send her back. She is not liked in NM.

[SteppingRazor]

12. I'm in Clay Shaw's district...

Yes, it's in deeply blue Broward County .... but since both Democratic candidates (party-backed Ron Klein and some yahoo named Jim Glassie) have yet to do JACK FUCKING SHIT, I doubt we'll see Shaw unseated. Klein should already be a household name throughout the district if he hopes to unseat Shaw. The sad, sorry state of the Florida Democratic Party sucks beyond words.